Viking 2-1 Kristiansund BK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Viking (68%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Viking face Kristiansund BK.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Viking host Kristiansund BK at SR-Bank Arena in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 17 July 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Viking have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L L L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Viking, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at SR-Bank Arena, Viking have gone 5W 4D 1L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Viking are significantly better at SR-Bank Arena than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kristiansund BK stand at 0W 1D 9L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 0.10 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. This season is still relatively young for Kristiansund BK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kristiansund BK's away record: 1W 0D 9L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game.
Viking carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.20 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.30 vs 0.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
Viking hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 3 wins from 3 previous encounters compared to 0 for Kristiansund BK, with 0 draws in between.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 6.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 28 Nov 2021, ended 3–2 with Viking winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Viking and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 3 meetings, combined with an average of 6.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Viking trading profile (41 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 81% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Kristiansund BK trading profile (41 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Viking 73% versus Kristiansund BK 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Viking 63% | Kristiansund BK 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Viking 1.98 xG and Kristiansund BK 0.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Viking attack 1.018 / defence 0.761 | Kristiansund BK attack 0.637 / defence 1.229. League average goals — home 1.585 / away 1.389. Kristiansund BK bring a strong defensive rating of 1.229 — this is suppressing Viking's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Viking's defence rating of 0.761 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 45 Viking games / 41 Kristiansund BK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Viking 68% | Draw 20% | Kristiansund BK 12%. Fair-value odds: Viking 1.47 | Draw 5.00 | Kristiansund BK 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Viking (68%) — a 56pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Viking at 68% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.66 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging only 6.0 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates are neutral: Viking 60% | Kristiansund BK 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Viking vs Kristiansund BK | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: SR-Bank Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Jul 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Viking 68% | Draw 20% | Kristiansund BK 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 42% | xG Viking 1.98 / Kristiansund BK 0.67 • Poisson strength factors: Viking attack 1.018 / def 0.761 | Kristiansund BK attack 0.637 / def 1.229 | league avg home 1.585 / away 1.389 • Poisson stance: Viking (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.98
Viking xG
Expected Goals
0.67
Kristiansund BK xG
42%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Viking vs Kristiansund BK kick off?
Viking vs Kristiansund BK kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 17 July 2022 at SR-Bank Arena.
What was the final score in Viking vs Kristiansund BK?
Viking 2 - 1 Kristiansund BK.
Where is Viking vs Kristiansund BK being played?
The match is being played at SR-Bank Arena.
What competition is Viking vs Kristiansund BK part of?
Viking vs Kristiansund BK is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Viking vs Kristiansund BK?
Our statistical model gives Viking a 68% chance of winning, Kristiansund BK a 12% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Viking the favourite.
Will both teams score in Viking vs Kristiansund BK?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Viking and Kristiansund BK will score (BTTS).
Will Viking vs Kristiansund BK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Viking and Kristiansund BK?
Record (3 meetings): Viking 3W | Draws 0 | Kristiansund BK 0W.
What form are Viking and Kristiansund BK in?
Viking (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-D-W. Kristiansund BK (all comps): 0W-1D-9L in 10 | 0.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Viking's attack at 1.02x the league average against Kristiansund BK's defence at 1.23x — combine the two and it projects 1.98 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Kristiansund BK's attack versus Viking's defence, projects 0.67 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.7%), 1-1 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Viking Win
68%
1.46
20%
4.97
12%
8.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.8%
Home win
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.98
Viking xG
Total xG
2.66
0.67
Kristiansund BK xG
1.46
68%
Home win
4.97
20%
Draw
8.60
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
51%
1.96
14%
7.27
Win to Nil
35%
2.87
2%
62.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.9 | 9.4 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.8 | 9.3 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 9.1 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.5 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Viking vs Kristiansund BK?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Viking and Kristiansund BK expected to score?
The model projects 1.98 expected goals for Viking and 0.67 for Kristiansund BK, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Viking vs Kristiansund BK?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Viking come into this having played 41 games, going 22W 10D 9L for 1.85 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-W. The sample for Viking is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Kristiansund BK sit at 1.15 PPG from 41 outings (14W 5D 22L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Kristiansund BK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Viking carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.70 PPG clear of Kristiansund BK — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Viking's home form reads 12W 6D 3L across 21 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Kristiansund BK have taken 0.67 points per game from 21 outings (4W 2D 15L). That's a step down from their 1.15 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Kristiansund BK's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Viking come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Viking are averaging 1.95 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Kristiansund BK are on 1.17 scored and 1.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Viking have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games.
Last 41 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Viking
Blended
Kristiansund BK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Viking and Kristiansund BK in coming into this match?
Viking have gone 22W 10D 9L in their last 41 games (1.85 PPG), while Kristiansund BK have gone 14W 5D 22L in their last 41 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Viking at home or Kristiansund BK away?
Viking's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Viking at home: 2.00 PPG; Kristiansund BK away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Viking and Kristiansund BK runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 24 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Viking go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Viking's record when hosting Kristiansund BK specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
9
Viking
0
Draws
1
Kristiansund BK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Viking and Kristiansund BK?
From 10 meetings on record, Viking have won 9, Kristiansund BK have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Viking and Kristiansund BK last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Kristiansund BK 1-2 Viking.
Who has won more matches between Viking and Kristiansund BK?
Viking have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Viking are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 24% of those situations.
Kristiansund BK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Viking 81%, Kristiansund BK 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Viking and 62% for Kristiansund BK. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Kristiansund BK in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Viking home games / Kristiansund BK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Viking play Kristiansund BK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 81% of Viking's games and 38% of Kristiansund BK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Viking vs Kristiansund BK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Viking's matches and 62% of Kristiansund BK's.
Do Viking and Kristiansund BK tend to score early?
Viking have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Kristiansund BK in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Viking edge out Kristiansund BK 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Viking beat Kristiansund BK 2-1 at SR-Bank Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Viking 1.98 xG and Kristiansund BK 0.67 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Viking attack 1.02 / defence 0.76 against Kristiansund BK attack 0.64 / defence 1.23, drawn from 45/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Viking 68% | Draw 20% | Kristiansund BK 12%, with Viking to win its most likely call at 68%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Viking 63%, Kristiansund BK 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Viking's trading profile (41 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Kristiansund BK's trading profile (41 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Viking arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 1.15. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.