Viking 3-2 Brann – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Viking (69%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Viking face Brann.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Lyse Arena plays host to Viking versus Brann in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off: Saturday 18 April 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Viking's overall Eliteserien record this term: 8W 2D 0L from 10 games (2.60 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.80 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Viking's home record at Lyse Arena: 9W 0D 1L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (2.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Lyse Arena.
Brann (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: L L D L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Brann have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. Viking's 2.60 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Brann's 1.60 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Across 9 previous meetings, Viking are the stronger side on paper — 6 victories to 1, with 2 draws in between.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Oct 2025, ended 3–0 with Viking winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Viking and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 9 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
Viking — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
Brann — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Viking 68% and Brann 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Viking 68% | Brann 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Viking 2.93 xG and Brann 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Viking attack 1.647 / defence 0.770 | Brann attack 1.408 / defence 1.077. League average goals — home 1.650 / away 1.273. Viking carry an above-average attack strength of 1.647 — their λ of 2.93 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Brann have an above-average attack strength of 1.408 — the away xG of 1.38 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Viking's defence rating of 0.770 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 34 Viking games / 34 Brann games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Viking 69% | Draw 16% | Brann 15%. Fair-value odds: Viking 1.45 | Draw 6.25 | Brann 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Viking (69%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 80% | BTTS probability 71% | Total xG 4.31. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 80% — a total xG of 4.31 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% reflects that both xG figures (2.93 / 1.38) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Viking at 69% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 4.31 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 80% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 71% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Viking 50% | Brann 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Viking vs Brann | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Lyse Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Apr 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Viking 69% | Draw 16% | Brann 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 80% | BTTS 71% | xG Viking 2.93 / Brann 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Viking attack 1.647 / def 0.770 | Brann attack 1.408 / def 1.077 | league avg home 1.650 / away 1.273 • Poisson stance: Viking (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.93
Viking xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Brann xG
71%
BTTS
93%
Over 1.5
80%
Over 2.5
62%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Viking vs Brann kick off?
Viking vs Brann kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 18 April 2026 at Lyse Arena.
What was the final score in Viking vs Brann?
Viking 3 - 2 Brann.
Where is Viking vs Brann being played?
The match is being played at Lyse Arena.
What competition is Viking vs Brann part of?
Viking vs Brann is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Viking vs Brann?
Our statistical model gives Viking a 69% chance of winning, Brann a 15% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making Viking the favourite.
Will both teams score in Viking vs Brann?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both Viking and Brann will score (BTTS).
Will Viking vs Brann have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 80%.
What is the head-to-head record between Viking and Brann?
Record (9 meetings): Viking 6W | Draws 2 | Brann 1W.
What form are Viking and Brann in?
Viking (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Brann (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Viking's attack at 1.65x the league average against Brann's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 2.93 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Brann's attack (1.41x) against Viking's defence (0.77x) — and the away total comes out at 1.38.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-1 (7.8%), 1-1 (6.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 22% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Viking Win
69%
1.46
16%
6.15
15%
6.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.8%
Home win
2 – 0
5.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.93
Viking xG
Total xG
4.31
1.38
Brann xG
1.46
69%
Home win
6.15
16%
Draw
6.65
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
93%
Over 1.5
1.08
7%
Under 1.5
14.29
80%
Over 2.5
1.25
20%
Under 2.5
5.00
62%
Over 3.5
1.61
38%
Under 3.5
2.63
43%
Over 4.5
2.33
57%
Under 4.5
1.75
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.40
29%
BTTS No
3.47
Clean Sheet
25%
3.97
5%
18.67
Win to Nil
17%
5.78
1%
124.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 3.9 | 5.4 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.0 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 7.8 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 4.1 | 5.7 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 2.4 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Viking vs Brann?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.0%.
How many goals are Viking and Brann expected to score?
The model projects 2.93 expected goals for Viking and 1.38 for Brann, a combined total of 4.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Viking vs Brann?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Viking's recent record stands at 38W 14D 8L from 60 games, a 2.13 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five.
Brann, meanwhile, have gone 34W 13D 13L across 60 games — 1.92 PPG, with L-L-D-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.13 PPG for Viking against 1.92 for Brann. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Viking have managed 22W 6D 2L from 30 games — 2.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Brann's away record stands at 15W 7D 8L across 30 trips, a 1.73 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Viking come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Viking are averaging 2.30 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Brann are on 1.83 scored and 1.32 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Viking have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games; Brann in 62%.
Last 60 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Viking
Current Season
Brann
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Viking and Brann in coming into this match?
Viking have gone 38W 14D 8L in their last 60 games (2.13 PPG), while Brann have gone 34W 13D 13L in their last 60 (1.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Viking at home or Brann away?
Viking's home record (2.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Viking at home: 2.40 PPG; Brann away: 1.73 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Viking go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Viking won 3-0 on 5 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Viking have gone 5W 1D 0L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Brann — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Viking
2
Draws
1
Brann
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Viking and Brann?
From 10 meetings on record, Viking have won 7, Brann have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Viking and Brann last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Viking 3-2 Brann.
Who has won more matches between Viking and Brann?
Viking have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Viking are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Brann are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Viking 63%, Brann 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Viking and 73% for Brann. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Viking keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Viking home games / Brann away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Viking play Brann?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Viking's games and 60% of Brann's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Viking vs Brann usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Viking's matches and 73% of Brann's.
Do Viking and Brann tend to score early?
Viking have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Brann in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Viking edge out Brann 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Viking beat Brann 3-2 at Lyse Arena, Regular Season - 5, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Viking 2.93 xG and Brann 1.38 xG, a combined 4.31. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Viking attack 1.65 / defence 0.77 against Brann attack 1.41 / defence 1.08, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Viking 69% | Draw 16% | Brann 15%, with Viking to win its most likely call at 69%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 80%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 93% and landed. Over 3.5 was 62% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Viking 68%, Brann 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Viking's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Brann's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Viking 2.13 PPG, Brann 1.92 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Viking win broke the near-deadlock. Viking (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Brann (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.53 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.