Valerenga 0-1 ODD Ballklubb – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates ODD Ballklubb at 36%, yet in-form Valerenga provide a compelling counter-argument — this Valerenga vs ODD Ballklubb fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Valerenga and ODD Ballklubb meet at Intility Arena in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 11. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 26 June 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Valerenga's overall Eliteserien record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: D D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Intility Arena, Valerenga have gone 6W 4D 0L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
ODD Ballklubb have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, ODD Ballklubb have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Valerenga. A 1.10 PPG lead over ODD Ballklubb (1.80 vs 0.70) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Valerenga lead 2W to 1W over the last 4 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 27 Nov 2021, ended 2–1 with Valerenga winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Valerenga goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
ODD Ballklubb goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Valerenga 68% and ODD Ballklubb 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valerenga 53% | ODD Ballklubb 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valerenga 1.11 xG and ODD Ballklubb 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valerenga attack 0.794 / defence 1.058 | ODD Ballklubb attack 0.744 / defence 0.882. League average goals — home 1.584 / away 1.438. Valerenga's attack strength of 0.794 is below the league average — the 1.11 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 41 Valerenga games / 41 ODD Ballklubb games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Valerenga 35% | Draw 29% | ODD Ballklubb 36%. Fair-value odds: Valerenga 2.86 | Draw 3.45 | ODD Ballklubb 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is ODD Ballklubb at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Valerenga (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on ODD Ballklubb if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.24 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. This conflicts with form data: Valerenga 70% | ODD Ballklubb 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valerenga vs ODD Ballklubb | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Intility Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Jun 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valerenga 35% | Draw 29% | ODD Ballklubb 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 46% | xG Valerenga 1.11 / ODD Ballklubb 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Valerenga attack 0.794 / def 1.058 | ODD Ballklubb attack 0.744 / def 0.882 | league avg home 1.584 / away 1.438 • Poisson stance: ODD Ballklubb (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Valerenga xG
Expected Goals
1.13
ODD Ballklubb xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valerenga vs ODD Ballklubb kick off?
Valerenga vs ODD Ballklubb kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 26 June 2022 at Intility Arena.
What was the final score in Valerenga vs ODD Ballklubb?
Valerenga 0 - 1 ODD Ballklubb.
Where is Valerenga vs ODD Ballklubb being played?
The match is being played at Intility Arena.
What competition is Valerenga vs ODD Ballklubb part of?
Valerenga vs ODD Ballklubb is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Valerenga vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our statistical model gives Valerenga a 35% chance of winning, ODD Ballklubb a 36% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making ODD Ballklubb the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valerenga vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Valerenga and ODD Ballklubb will score (BTTS).
Will Valerenga vs ODD Ballklubb have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valerenga and ODD Ballklubb?
Record (4 meetings): Valerenga 2W | Draws 1 | ODD Ballklubb 1W.
What form are Valerenga and ODD Ballklubb in?
Valerenga (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-W-W-L. ODD Ballklubb (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Valerenga's attack rating (0.79) and ODD Ballklubb's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 1.11 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — ODD Ballklubb's attack (0.74x) against Valerenga's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.4%), 0-1 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
ODD Ballklubb Win
35%
2.87
29%
3.41
36%
2.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Valerenga xG
Total xG
2.24
1.13
ODD Ballklubb xG
2.87
35%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
2.79
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
33%
3.03
Win to Nil
11%
8.91
12%
8.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 12.0 | 6.8 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 13.4 | 7.6 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 7.4 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valerenga vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Valerenga and ODD Ballklubb expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Valerenga and 1.13 for ODD Ballklubb, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Valerenga vs ODD Ballklubb?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Valerenga's recent record stands at 26W 22D 12L from 60 games, a 1.67 PPG return, with D-D-W-W-L in the last five.
ODD Ballklubb, meanwhile, have gone 21W 13D 26L across 60 games — 1.27 PPG, with L-D-L-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.67 PPG for Valerenga against 1.27 for ODD Ballklubb. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Valerenga have managed 17W 12D 1L from 30 games — 2.10 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.67 PPG overall — Valerenga are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
ODD Ballklubb's away record stands at 8W 7D 15L across 30 trips, a 1.03 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Valerenga come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Valerenga are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; ODD Ballklubb are on 1.60 scored and 1.82 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Valerenga have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games; ODD Ballklubb in 62%.
Last 60 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valerenga
Current Season
ODD Ballklubb
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valerenga and ODD Ballklubb in coming into this match?
Valerenga have gone 26W 22D 12L in their last 60 games (1.67 PPG), while ODD Ballklubb have gone 21W 13D 26L in their last 60 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valerenga at home or ODD Ballklubb away?
Valerenga's home record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valerenga at home: 2.10 PPG; ODD Ballklubb away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 August 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: ODD Ballklubb won 4-1 on 24 Jun 2020, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Valerenga have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against ODD Ballklubb — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Valerenga
2
Draws
4
ODD Ballklubb
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valerenga and ODD Ballklubb?
From 8 meetings on record, Valerenga have won 2, ODD Ballklubb have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Valerenga and ODD Ballklubb last play each other?
They last met on 27 August 2023, when Valerenga 2-2 ODD Ballklubb.
Who has won more matches between Valerenga and ODD Ballklubb?
ODD Ballklubb have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Valerenga are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
ODD Ballklubb are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Valerenga 73%, ODD Ballklubb 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Valerenga) and 53% (ODD Ballklubb).
On the defensive side: ODD Ballklubb in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valerenga home games / ODD Ballklubb away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valerenga play ODD Ballklubb?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Valerenga's games and 50% of ODD Ballklubb's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Valerenga vs ODD Ballklubb usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Valerenga's recent games and 53% of ODD Ballklubb's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Valerenga and ODD Ballklubb tend to score early?
Valerenga have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, ODD Ballklubb in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as ODD Ballklubb edge out Valerenga 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
ODD Ballklubb beat Valerenga 0-1 at Intility Arena, Regular Season - 11, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valerenga 1.11 xG and ODD Ballklubb 1.13 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Valerenga fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valerenga attack 0.79 / defence 1.06 against ODD Ballklubb attack 0.74 / defence 0.88, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valerenga 35% | Draw 29% | ODD Ballklubb 36%, with ODD Ballklubb to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valerenga 53%, ODD Ballklubb 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valerenga's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
ODD Ballklubb's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Valerenga 1.67 PPG, ODD Ballklubb 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the ODD Ballklubb win broke the near-deadlock. Valerenga (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. ODD Ballklubb (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.