Valerenga 1-2 Kristiansund BK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Valerenga at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Valerenga vs Kristiansund BK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Kristiansund BK make the trip to Intility Arena to face Valerenga in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 3. The match kicks off on Sunday 16 May 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Valerenga (all games): 5W 5D 0L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D D W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Valerenga's home record at Intility Arena: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Kristiansund BK have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: W D W D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Kristiansund BK's away record: 4W 5D 1L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Valerenga. A 0.60 PPG lead over Kristiansund BK (2.00 vs 1.40) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Valerenga register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Kristiansund BK in 90%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Valerenga, 0 for Kristiansund BK and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 25 Oct 2020, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Valerenga half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Kristiansund BK half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 87% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Valerenga 63% and Kristiansund BK 83% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valerenga 53% | Kristiansund BK 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valerenga 1.69 xG and Kristiansund BK 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valerenga attack 0.975 / defence 0.898 | Kristiansund BK attack 0.893 / defence 0.945. League average goals — home 1.837 / away 1.304. Data: 32 Valerenga games / 32 Kristiansund BK games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Valerenga 50% | Draw 29% | Kristiansund BK 21%. Fair-value odds: Valerenga 2.00 | Draw 3.45 | Kristiansund BK 4.76. Valerenga hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Valerenga at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Valerenga if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.74 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Valerenga 70% | Kristiansund BK 90% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (32 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valerenga vs Kristiansund BK | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Intility Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 16 May 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valerenga 50% | Draw 29% | Kristiansund BK 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 55% | xG Valerenga 1.69 / Kristiansund BK 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Valerenga attack 0.975 / def 0.898 | Kristiansund BK attack 0.893 / def 0.945 | league avg home 1.837 / away 1.304 • Poisson stance: Valerenga (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Valerenga xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Kristiansund BK xG
55%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valerenga vs Kristiansund BK kick off?
Valerenga vs Kristiansund BK kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 16 May 2021 at Intility Arena.
What was the final score in Valerenga vs Kristiansund BK?
Valerenga 1 - 2 Kristiansund BK.
Where is Valerenga vs Kristiansund BK being played?
The match is being played at Intility Arena.
What competition is Valerenga vs Kristiansund BK part of?
Valerenga vs Kristiansund BK is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Valerenga vs Kristiansund BK?
Our statistical model gives Valerenga a 50% chance of winning, Kristiansund BK a 21% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Valerenga the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valerenga vs Kristiansund BK?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Valerenga and Kristiansund BK will score (BTTS).
Will Valerenga vs Kristiansund BK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valerenga and Kristiansund BK?
Record (2 meetings): Valerenga 0W | Draws 2 | Kristiansund BK 0W.
What form are Valerenga and Kristiansund BK in?
Valerenga (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-D-W-D-W. Kristiansund BK (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Valerenga's attack at 0.97x the league average against Kristiansund BK's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.69 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Kristiansund BK's attack (0.89x) against Valerenga's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
The sample (32/32 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Valerenga Win
50%
1.99
29%
3.50
21%
4.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Valerenga xG
Total xG
2.74
1.05
Kristiansund BK xG
1.99
50%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
4.73
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
18%
5.44
Win to Nil
18%
5.66
4%
25.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 11.4 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.7 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valerenga vs Kristiansund BK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Valerenga and Kristiansund BK expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Valerenga and 1.05 for Kristiansund BK, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Valerenga vs Kristiansund BK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 30 outings, Valerenga have picked up 1.83 PPG on a 15W 10D 5L record — D-D-W-D-W across the most recent five.
Kristiansund BK's form line: 12W 12D 6L from 30 games, 1.60 PPG, last five W-D-W-D-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.83 PPG for Valerenga against 1.60 for Kristiansund BK. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Valerenga have posted 2.33 PPG from 15 outings (10W 5D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 1.83 PPG overall — Valerenga are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Kristiansund BK have gone 5W 8D 2L from 15 away games — 1.53 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Valerenga come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Valerenga are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Kristiansund BK are on 1.90 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Valerenga have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Kristiansund BK in 83%.
Last 30 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valerenga
Current Season
Kristiansund BK
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valerenga and Kristiansund BK in coming into this match?
Valerenga have gone 15W 10D 5L in their last 30 games (1.83 PPG), while Kristiansund BK have gone 12W 12D 6L in their last 30 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valerenga at home or Kristiansund BK away?
Valerenga's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valerenga at home: 2.33 PPG; Kristiansund BK away: 1.53 PPG.
Have Valerenga or Kristiansund BK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Valerenga have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Kristiansund BK in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 29 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Valerenga have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Valerenga won 3-0 on 10 Jul 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Valerenga have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Kristiansund BK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Valerenga
2
Draws
4
Kristiansund BK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valerenga and Kristiansund BK?
From 10 meetings on record, Valerenga have won 4, Kristiansund BK have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Valerenga and Kristiansund BK last play each other?
They last met on 29 May 2026, when Valerenga 3-1 Kristiansund BK.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Valerenga are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Kristiansund BK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Valerenga, 87% for Kristiansund BK — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Valerenga and 67% for Kristiansund BK. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Valerenga keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valerenga home games / Kristiansund BK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valerenga play Kristiansund BK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Valerenga's games and 87% of Kristiansund BK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Valerenga vs Kristiansund BK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Valerenga's matches and 67% of Kristiansund BK's.
Do Valerenga and Kristiansund BK tend to score early?
Valerenga have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Kristiansund BK in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Kristiansund BK defy the odds to beat Valerenga 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kristiansund BK beat Valerenga 1-2 at Intility Arena, Regular Season - 3, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valerenga 1.69 xG and Kristiansund BK 1.05 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Kristiansund BK outscored their 1.05 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valerenga attack 0.97 / defence 0.90 against Kristiansund BK attack 0.89 / defence 0.94, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Valerenga 50% | Draw 29% | Kristiansund BK 21%, with Valerenga to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Kristiansund BK win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valerenga 53%, Kristiansund BK 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 73%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valerenga's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Kristiansund BK's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 83% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Valerenga 1.83 PPG, Kristiansund BK 1.60 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kristiansund BK win broke the near-deadlock. Valerenga (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.20 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.87 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.