Valerenga 1-0 Brann – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Valerenga at 56% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Valerenga vs Brann encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees Brann travel to Intility Arena to take on Valerenga. The game is scheduled for Sunday 31 October 2021, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Valerenga stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W D W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Valerenga, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Intility Arena, Valerenga have gone 5W 5D 0L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Valerenga are significantly better at Intility Arena than their overall form suggests.
Brann — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D D D L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.90. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Brann, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Brann have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Valerenga 1.30 PPG, Brann 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Valerenga: 3 wins from 3 previous clashes against 0 for Brann, with 0 draws across those contests.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 12 May 2021, ended 3–0 with Valerenga winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Valerenga and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 3 meetings, combined with an average of 4.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Valerenga in-play and half-time data (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Brann in-play and half-time data (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 79% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Valerenga 70% and Brann 72% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valerenga 56% | Brann 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valerenga 2.07 xG and Brann 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valerenga attack 1.055 / defence 0.877 | Brann attack 1.098 / defence 1.093. League average goals — home 1.798 / away 1.219. Data: 54 Valerenga games / 54 Brann games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Valerenga 56% | Draw 25% | Brann 19%. Fair-value odds: Valerenga 1.79 | Draw 4.00 | Brann 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Valerenga (56%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.25. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.25 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.07 / 1.17) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Valerenga at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.25 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Valerenga 90% | Brann 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valerenga vs Brann | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Intility Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Oct 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valerenga 56% | Draw 25% | Brann 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 62% | xG Valerenga 2.07 / Brann 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Valerenga attack 1.055 / def 0.877 | Brann attack 1.098 / def 1.093 | league avg home 1.798 / away 1.219 • Poisson stance: Valerenga (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.07
Valerenga xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Brann xG
62%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valerenga vs Brann kick off?
Valerenga vs Brann kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 31 October 2021 at Intility Arena.
What was the final score in Valerenga vs Brann?
Valerenga 1 - 0 Brann.
Where is Valerenga vs Brann being played?
The match is being played at Intility Arena.
What competition is Valerenga vs Brann part of?
Valerenga vs Brann is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Valerenga vs Brann?
Our statistical model gives Valerenga a 56% chance of winning, Brann a 19% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Valerenga the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valerenga vs Brann?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Valerenga and Brann will score (BTTS).
Will Valerenga vs Brann have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valerenga and Brann?
Record (3 meetings): Valerenga 3W | Draws 0 | Brann 0W.
What form are Valerenga and Brann in?
Valerenga (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-W-L. Brann (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Valerenga's attack rating (1.05) and Brann's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 2.07 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Brann's attack versus Valerenga's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Valerenga Win
56%
1.78
25%
4.00
19%
5.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
2 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.07
Valerenga xG
Total xG
3.25
1.17
Brann xG
1.78
56%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
5.28
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.66
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
13%
7.96
Win to Nil
17%
5.76
2%
42.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 4.6 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 9.5 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 6.8 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valerenga vs Brann?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Valerenga and Brann expected to score?
The model projects 2.07 expected goals for Valerenga and 1.17 for Brann, a combined total of 3.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Valerenga vs Brann?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Valerenga's recent record stands at 23W 20D 11L from 54 games, a 1.65 PPG return, with L-W-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Valerenga is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Brann, meanwhile, have gone 13W 17D 24L across 54 games — 1.04 PPG, with W-D-D-D-L in their last five. The sample for Brann is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Valerenga by 0.61 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Brann heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Valerenga have managed 15W 11D 1L from 27 games — 2.07 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.65 PPG overall — Valerenga are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Brann's away record stands at 6W 8D 13L across 27 trips, a 0.96 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Valerenga come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Valerenga are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Brann are on 1.30 scored and 1.76 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Valerenga have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games; Brann in 72%.
Last 54 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valerenga
Blended
Brann
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valerenga and Brann in coming into this match?
Valerenga have gone 23W 20D 11L in their last 54 games (1.65 PPG), while Brann have gone 13W 17D 24L in their last 54 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valerenga at home or Brann away?
Valerenga's home record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valerenga at home: 2.07 PPG; Brann away: 0.96 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Valerenga and Brann runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Sep 2020, when Valerenga won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Valerenga's record when hosting Brann specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Valerenga
0
Draws
4
Brann
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valerenga and Brann?
From 9 meetings on record, Valerenga have won 5, Brann have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Valerenga and Brann last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when Brann 2-3 Valerenga.
Who has won more matches between Valerenga and Brann?
Valerenga have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Valerenga are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 26% of those situations.
Brann are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Valerenga at 78%, Brann at 63%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Valerenga) and 56% (Brann). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Brann in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valerenga home games / Brann away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valerenga play Brann?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 78% of Valerenga's games and 63% of Brann's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Valerenga vs Brann usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Valerenga's matches and 56% of Brann's.
Do Valerenga and Brann tend to score early?
Valerenga have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Brann in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Valerenga edge out Brann 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Valerenga beat Brann 1-0 at Intility Arena, Regular Season - 25, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valerenga 2.07 xG and Brann 1.17 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Valerenga fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Brann landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valerenga attack 1.05 / defence 0.88 against Brann attack 1.10 / defence 1.09, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valerenga 56% | Draw 25% | Brann 19%, with Valerenga to win its most likely call at 56%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valerenga 56%, Brann 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 71%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valerenga's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Brann's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Valerenga arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 1.04. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Valerenga (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.07 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.96 average — tighter than their form line. Brann (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.04 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.