Valerenga 2-2 Bodo/Glimt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Valerenga vs Bodo/Glimt encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 13 as Valerenga welcome Bodo/Glimt to Intility Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 8 August 2020 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Valerenga — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W D W L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Valerenga, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Intility Arena, Valerenga have gone 3W 2D 0L this season (5 games, 2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Bodo/Glimt have recorded 9W 1D 0L from 10 outings — 2.80 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Bodo/Glimt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bodo/Glimt away from home this season: 5W 1D 0L from 6 away games — 2.67 PPG on the road. They are averaging 3.67 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 83% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Bodo/Glimt's 2.80 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Valerenga's 1.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Valerenga register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Bodo/Glimt in 83% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
Valerenga trading profile (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Bodo/Glimt trading profile (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 83%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Valerenga 58% and Bodo/Glimt 83% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Valerenga 50% | Bodo/Glimt 100%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valerenga 1.51 xG and Bodo/Glimt 2.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valerenga attack 0.938 / defence 1.063 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.662 / defence 1.217. League average goals — home 1.322 / away 1.296. Bodo/Glimt bring a strong defensive rating of 1.217 — this is suppressing Valerenga's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Bodo/Glimt have an above-average attack strength of 1.662 — the away xG of 2.29 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 12 Valerenga games / 12 Bodo/Glimt games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Valerenga 25% | Draw 21% | Bodo/Glimt 55%. Fair-value odds: Valerenga 4.00 | Draw 4.76 | Bodo/Glimt 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Bodo/Glimt (55%) — a 30pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.80. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.80 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (1.51 / 2.29) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bodo/Glimt at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.80 combined xG gives a 73% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 4.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 70% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Valerenga 60% | Bodo/Glimt 83% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valerenga vs Bodo/Glimt | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Intility Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Aug 2020, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valerenga 25% | Draw 21% | Bodo/Glimt 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% | BTTS 70% | xG Valerenga 1.51 / Bodo/Glimt 2.29 • Poisson strength factors: Valerenga attack 0.938 / def 1.063 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.662 / def 1.217 | league avg home 1.322 / away 1.296 • Poisson stance: Bodo/Glimt (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Valerenga xG
Expected Goals
2.29
Bodo/Glimt xG
70%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valerenga vs Bodo/Glimt kick off?
Valerenga vs Bodo/Glimt kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 8 August 2020 at Intility Arena.
What was the final score in Valerenga vs Bodo/Glimt?
Valerenga 2 - 2 Bodo/Glimt.
Where is Valerenga vs Bodo/Glimt being played?
The match is being played at Intility Arena.
What competition is Valerenga vs Bodo/Glimt part of?
Valerenga vs Bodo/Glimt is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Valerenga vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our statistical model gives Valerenga a 25% chance of winning, Bodo/Glimt a 55% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Bodo/Glimt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valerenga vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Valerenga and Bodo/Glimt will score (BTTS).
Will Valerenga vs Bodo/Glimt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valerenga and Bodo/Glimt?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Valerenga and Bodo/Glimt in?
Valerenga (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-L-W. Bodo/Glimt (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 3.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Valerenga's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Bodo/Glimt's defensive record (1.22x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.51. The same calculation in reverse, Bodo/Glimt's attack versus Valerenga's defence, projects 2.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-2, at 8.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.7%), 1-3 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodo/Glimt Win
25%
4.07
21%
4.85
55%
1.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.7%
Draw
1 – 3
6.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Valerenga xG
Total xG
3.80
2.29
Bodo/Glimt xG
4.07
25%
Home win
4.85
21%
Draw
1.82
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
53%
Over 3.5
1.89
47%
Under 3.5
2.13
33%
Over 4.5
3.03
67%
Under 4.5
1.49
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.42
30%
BTTS No
3.38
Clean Sheet
10%
9.88
22%
4.52
Win to Nil
2%
40.26
12%
8.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 5.1 | 5.9 | 4.5 | 2.6 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 3.4 | 7.7 | 8.9 | 6.8 | 3.9 | 1.8 |
| 2 | 2.5 | 5.8 | 6.7 | 5.1 | 2.9 | 1.3 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.9 | 3.4 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valerenga vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.9%.
How many goals are Valerenga and Bodo/Glimt expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Valerenga and 2.29 for Bodo/Glimt, a combined total of 3.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Valerenga vs Bodo/Glimt?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Valerenga's recent record stands at 6W 4D 2L from 12 games, a 1.83 PPG return, with W-D-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Valerenga is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bodo/Glimt, meanwhile, have gone 11W 1D 0L across 12 games — 2.83 PPG, with W-W-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Bodo/Glimt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bodo/Glimt by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Valerenga heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Valerenga have managed 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — 2.20 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bodo/Glimt's away record stands at 4W 1D 0L across 5 trips, a 2.60 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Valerenga are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Bodo/Glimt are on 3.58 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bodo/Glimt in 83%.
Defensively: Valerenga have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 12 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valerenga
Blended
Bodo/Glimt
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valerenga and Bodo/Glimt in coming into this match?
Valerenga have gone 6W 4D 2L in their last 12 games (1.83 PPG), while Bodo/Glimt have gone 11W 1D 0L in their last 12 (2.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valerenga at home or Bodo/Glimt away?
Bodo/Glimt's away record (2.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valerenga at home: 2.20 PPG; Bodo/Glimt away: 2.60 PPG.
Have Valerenga or Bodo/Glimt been keeping clean sheets recently?
Valerenga have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Bodo/Glimt in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Valerenga and Bodo/Glimt runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 1 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Oct 2022, when Bodo/Glimt won 0-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Valerenga's record when hosting Bodo/Glimt specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Valerenga
2
Draws
7
Bodo/Glimt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valerenga and Bodo/Glimt?
From 10 meetings on record, Valerenga have won 1, Bodo/Glimt have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Valerenga and Bodo/Glimt last play each other?
They last met on 1 November 2025, when Valerenga 3-1 Bodo/Glimt.
Who has won more matches between Valerenga and Bodo/Glimt?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Valerenga are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 100% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Valerenga at 60%, Bodo/Glimt at 80%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Valerenga and 100% for Bodo/Glimt. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 100% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Valerenga keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valerenga home games / Bodo/Glimt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valerenga play Bodo/Glimt?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Valerenga's games and 80% of Bodo/Glimt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Valerenga vs Bodo/Glimt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Valerenga's matches and 100% of Bodo/Glimt's.
Do Valerenga and Bodo/Glimt tend to score early?
Valerenga have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Bodo/Glimt in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Valerenga and Bodo/Glimt share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Intility Arena, Regular Season - 13, as Valerenga and Bodo/Glimt drew 2-2 in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valerenga 1.51 xG and Bodo/Glimt 2.29 xG, a combined 3.80. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valerenga attack 0.94 / defence 1.06 against Bodo/Glimt attack 1.66 / defence 1.22, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valerenga 25% | Draw 21% | Bodo/Glimt 55%, with Bodo/Glimt to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 53% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valerenga 50%, Bodo/Glimt 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 71%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valerenga's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 83% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 2.83 PPG against 1.83. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Valerenga (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bodo/Glimt (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 3.60 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.