Valerenga 6-1 Aalesund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Valerenga at 52% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Valerenga vs Aalesund encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 14 as Valerenga welcome Aalesund to Intility Arena. Kick-off is set for Thursday 16 July 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Valerenga have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. This season is still relatively young for Valerenga, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Valerenga at Intility Arena this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Valerenga are significantly better at Intility Arena than their overall form suggests.
Aalesund — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W W D D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.80. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Aalesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Aalesund have posted 2W 2D 2L from 6 away outings — 1.33 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Valerenga 0.80 PPG, Aalesund 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: Valerenga have dominated this rivalry, winning 3 of 6 past contests while Aalesund have managed just 0 wins.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 Sep 2023, ended 3–1 with Valerenga winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Valerenga and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 3.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Valerenga in-play and half-time data (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 43% of games.
Aalesund in-play and half-time data (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Valerenga 43% versus Aalesund 71%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valerenga 43% | Aalesund 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valerenga 1.80 xG and Aalesund 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valerenga attack 1.009 / defence 1.107 | Aalesund attack 0.901 / defence 1.012. League average goals — home 1.763 / away 1.164. Data: 41 Valerenga games / 12 Aalesund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Valerenga 52% | Draw 23% | Aalesund 25%. Fair-value odds: Valerenga 1.92 | Draw 4.35 | Aalesund 4.00. Valerenga hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Valerenga as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Valerenga offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.96 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Valerenga 60% | Aalesund 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valerenga vs Aalesund | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Intility Arena • Kick-off: Thursday 16 Jul 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valerenga 52% | Draw 23% | Aalesund 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 57% | xG Valerenga 1.80 / Aalesund 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Valerenga attack 1.009 / def 1.107 | Aalesund attack 0.901 / def 1.012 | league avg home 1.763 / away 1.164 • Poisson stance: Valerenga (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Valerenga xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Aalesund xG
57%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valerenga vs Aalesund kick off?
Valerenga vs Aalesund kicked off at 17:00 on Thursday 16 July 2026 at Intility Arena.
What was the final score in Valerenga vs Aalesund?
Valerenga 6 - 1 Aalesund.
Where is Valerenga vs Aalesund being played?
The match is being played at Intility Arena.
What competition is Valerenga vs Aalesund part of?
Valerenga vs Aalesund is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Valerenga vs Aalesund?
Our statistical model gives Valerenga a 52% chance of winning, Aalesund a 25% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Valerenga the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valerenga vs Aalesund?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Valerenga and Aalesund will score (BTTS).
Will Valerenga vs Aalesund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valerenga and Aalesund?
Record (6 meetings): Valerenga 3W | Draws 3 | Aalesund 0W.
What form are Valerenga and Aalesund in?
Valerenga (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Aalesund (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Valerenga's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Aalesund's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.80. The same calculation in reverse, Aalesund's attack versus Valerenga's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Valerenga Win
52%
1.91
23%
4.32
25%
4.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Valerenga xG
Total xG
2.96
1.16
Aalesund xG
1.91
52%
Home win
4.32
23%
Draw
4.08
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
31%
3.20
17%
6.06
Win to Nil
16%
6.11
4%
24.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 6.0 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 10.8 | 6.3 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.8 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valerenga vs Aalesund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Valerenga and Aalesund expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Valerenga and 1.16 for Aalesund, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Valerenga vs Aalesund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 14 outings, Valerenga have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 4W 2D 8L record — L-W-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Valerenga is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Aalesund's form line: 3W 6D 5L from 14 games, 1.07 PPG, last five W-W-D-D-D. The sample for Aalesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Valerenga on 1.00 PPG, Aalesund on 1.07. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Valerenga have posted 1.67 PPG from 6 outings (3W 1D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — Valerenga are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Aalesund have gone 2W 2D 2L from 6 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Valerenga are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.93 conceded per game recently; Aalesund are on 1.50 scored and 1.64 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Aalesund in 71%.
Last 14 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valerenga
Blended
Aalesund
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valerenga and Aalesund in coming into this match?
Valerenga have gone 4W 2D 8L in their last 14 games (1.00 PPG), while Aalesund have gone 3W 6D 5L in their last 14 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valerenga at home or Aalesund away?
Valerenga's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valerenga at home: 1.67 PPG; Aalesund away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 16 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Jul 2026, when Valerenga won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Valerenga's record when hosting Aalesund specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Valerenga
4
Draws
0
Aalesund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valerenga and Aalesund?
From 8 meetings on record, Valerenga have won 4, Aalesund have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Valerenga and Aalesund last play each other?
They last met on 16 August 2026, when Aalesund 5-5 Valerenga.
Who has won more matches between Valerenga and Aalesund?
Valerenga have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Valerenga are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Aalesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Valerenga 50%, Aalesund 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Valerenga) and 50% (Aalesund).
On the defensive side: Valerenga have failed to score in 33% of games; Aalesund in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valerenga home games / Aalesund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valerenga play Aalesund?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Valerenga's recent matches and 50% of Aalesund's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Valerenga vs Aalesund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Valerenga's recent games and 50% of Aalesund's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Valerenga and Aalesund tend to score early?
Valerenga have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Aalesund in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Valerenga run riot with a 6-1 hammering of Aalesund.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Valerenga beat Aalesund 6-1 at Intility Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valerenga 1.80 xG and Aalesund 1.16 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 6-1 for 7 actual goals. Valerenga beat their projection by 4.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valerenga attack 1.01 / defence 1.11 against Aalesund attack 0.90 / defence 1.01, drawn from 41/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valerenga 52% | Draw 23% | Aalesund 25%, with Valerenga to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valerenga 43%, Aalesund 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valerenga's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Aalesund's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Valerenga 1.00 PPG, Aalesund 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Valerenga win broke the near-deadlock. Valerenga (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm. Aalesund (home/away splits) shipped 6 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.