Tromso 0-2 Sarpsborg 08 FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sarpsborg 08 FF at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Tromso vs Sarpsborg 08 FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sarpsborg 08 FF make the trip to Alfheim Stadion to face Tromso in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 6. The match kicks off on Sunday 30 May 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sarpsborg 08 FF's overall Eliteserien record this term: 0W 5D 5L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: D D D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tromso 1.53 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tromso attack 1.037 / defence 1.436 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.905 / defence 1.004. League average goals — home 1.469 / away 1.298. Data: 5 Tromso games / 33 Sarpsborg 08 FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Tromso 33% | Draw 26% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 40%. Fair-value odds: Tromso 3.03 | Draw 3.85 | Sarpsborg 08 FF 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.22. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.22 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.53 / 1.69) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sarpsborg 08 FF are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sarpsborg 08 FF if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.22 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tromso vs Sarpsborg 08 FF | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Alfheim Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 30 May 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tromso 33% | Draw 26% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 65% | xG Tromso 1.53 / Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.69 • Poisson strength factors: Tromso attack 1.037 / def 1.436 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.905 / def 1.004 | league avg home 1.469 / away 1.298 • Poisson stance: Sarpsborg 08 FF (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Tromso xG
Expected Goals
1.69
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tromso vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kick off?
Tromso vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 30 May 2021 at Alfheim Stadion.
What was the final score in Tromso vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Tromso 0 - 2 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Where is Tromso vs Sarpsborg 08 FF being played?
The match is being played at Alfheim Stadion.
What competition is Tromso vs Sarpsborg 08 FF part of?
Tromso vs Sarpsborg 08 FF is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Tromso vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our statistical model gives Tromso a 33% chance of winning, Sarpsborg 08 FF a 40% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Sarpsborg 08 FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tromso vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Tromso and Sarpsborg 08 FF will score (BTTS).
Will Tromso vs Sarpsborg 08 FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tromso and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Tromso and Sarpsborg 08 FF in?
Sarpsborg 08 FF (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-D-D-L. Sarpsborg 08 FF away split: 0.70 PPG from 10 | GF 0.80 / GA 2.20 | CS 2.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Tromso's attack at 1.04x the league average against Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.53 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack (0.91x) against Tromso's defence (1.44x) — and the away total comes out at 1.69.
These ratings are built from 5/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sarpsborg 08 FF Win
33%
2.99
26%
3.79
40%
2.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
2 – 1
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Tromso xG
Total xG
3.22
1.69
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
2.99
33%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
2.49
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.89
Clean Sheet
19%
5.40
22%
4.62
Win to Nil
6%
16.12
9%
11.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 6.8 | 5.7 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 10.3 | 8.7 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.9 | 6.7 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 4.0 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tromso vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Tromso and Sarpsborg 08 FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Tromso and 1.69 for Sarpsborg 08 FF, a combined total of 3.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Tromso vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tromso
Pre-Season
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Tromso have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sarpsborg 08 FF won 4-0 on 26 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Tromso have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Sarpsborg 08 FF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Tromso
1
Draws
4
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tromso and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
From 10 meetings on record, Tromso have won 5, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Tromso and Sarpsborg 08 FF last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Sarpsborg 08 FF 0-1 Tromso.
Who has won more matches between Tromso and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Tromso have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tromso home games / Sarpsborg 08 FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Sarpsborg 08 FF cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Tromso.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sarpsborg 08 FF beat Tromso 0-2 at Alfheim Stadion, Regular Season - 6, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tromso 1.53 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.69 xG, a combined 3.22. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Tromso fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tromso attack 1.04 / defence 1.44 against Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.91 / defence 1.00, drawn from 5/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tromso 33% | Draw 26% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 40%, with Sarpsborg 08 FF to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.