Tromso 1-0 Mjondalen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Tromso at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Tromso vs Mjondalen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Mjondalen travel to Alfheim Stadion to take on Tromso. The game is scheduled for Sunday 24 October 2021, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Tromso stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Tromso, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Tromso's form when playing at home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 games at Alfheim Stadion this term (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.70 lags behind their overall 1.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Alfheim Stadion this season.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Mjondalen have recorded 0W 3D 7L from 10 outings — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L D L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Mjondalen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mjondalen away from home this season: 0W 4D 6L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Tromso carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.20 vs 0.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Tromso, 0 for Mjondalen and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 8 Aug 2021, ended 3–2 with Tromso winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Tromso in-play and half-time data (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Mjondalen in-play and half-time data (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Tromso 59% and Mjondalen 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tromso 59% | Mjondalen 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tromso 1.84 xG and Mjondalen 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tromso attack 0.768 / defence 1.156 | Mjondalen attack 0.744 / defence 1.338. League average goals — home 1.795 / away 1.254. Tromso's attack strength of 0.768 is below the league average — the 1.84 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Mjondalen bring a strong defensive rating of 1.338 — this is suppressing Tromso's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 Tromso games / 52 Mjondalen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Tromso 53% | Draw 27% | Mjondalen 20%. Fair-value odds: Tromso 1.89 | Draw 3.70 | Mjondalen 5.00. Tromso hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Tromso at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Tromso offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.92 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Tromso 70% | Mjondalen 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tromso vs Mjondalen | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Alfheim Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Oct 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tromso 53% | Draw 27% | Mjondalen 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 58% | xG Tromso 1.84 / Mjondalen 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Tromso attack 0.768 / def 1.156 | Mjondalen attack 0.744 / def 1.338 | league avg home 1.795 / away 1.254 • Poisson stance: Tromso (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
Tromso xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Mjondalen xG
58%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tromso vs Mjondalen kick off?
Tromso vs Mjondalen kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 24 October 2021 at Alfheim Stadion.
What was the final score in Tromso vs Mjondalen?
Tromso 1 - 0 Mjondalen.
Where is Tromso vs Mjondalen being played?
The match is being played at Alfheim Stadion.
What competition is Tromso vs Mjondalen part of?
Tromso vs Mjondalen is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Tromso vs Mjondalen?
Our statistical model gives Tromso a 53% chance of winning, Mjondalen a 20% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Tromso the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tromso vs Mjondalen?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Tromso and Mjondalen will score (BTTS).
Will Tromso vs Mjondalen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tromso and Mjondalen?
Record (1 meetings): Tromso 1W | Draws 0 | Mjondalen 0W.
What form are Tromso and Mjondalen in?
Tromso (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-W-W-L. Mjondalen (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Tromso's attack rating (0.77) and Mjondalen's defence rating (1.34), the model arrives at 1.84 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Mjondalen's attack versus Tromso's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Tromso Win
53%
1.88
27%
3.69
20%
5.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.84
Tromso xG
Total xG
2.92
1.08
Mjondalen xG
1.88
53%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
5.05
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
16%
6.32
Win to Nil
18%
5.54
3%
31.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 5.8 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 10.7 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 6.1 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tromso vs Mjondalen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Tromso and Mjondalen expected to score?
The model projects 1.84 expected goals for Tromso and 1.08 for Mjondalen, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Tromso vs Mjondalen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Tromso come into this having played 22 games, going 5W 7D 10L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-W-L. The sample for Tromso is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Mjondalen sit at 0.68 PPG from 22 outings (2W 9D 11L), a run that reads L-D-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Mjondalen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Tromso on 1.00 PPG, Mjondalen on 0.68. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Tromso's home form reads 1W 4D 5L across 10 games on their own ground, a 0.70 PPG return.
Away from home, Mjondalen have taken 0.40 points per game from 10 outings (0W 4D 6L).
Goals in Recent Form
Tromso are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.77 conceded per game recently; Mjondalen are on 1.05 scored and 1.77 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mjondalen in 73%.
Last 22 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tromso
Blended
Mjondalen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Tromso and Mjondalen in coming into this match?
Tromso have gone 5W 7D 10L in their last 22 games (1.00 PPG), while Mjondalen have gone 2W 9D 11L in their last 22 (0.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tromso at home or Mjondalen away?
Tromso's home record (0.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tromso at home: 0.70 PPG; Mjondalen away: 0.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 October 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Tromso
0
Draws
0
Mjondalen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tromso and Mjondalen?
From 2 meetings on record, Tromso have won 2, Mjondalen have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Tromso and Mjondalen last play each other?
They last met on 24 October 2021, when Tromso 1-0 Mjondalen.
Who has won more matches between Tromso and Mjondalen?
Tromso have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Tromso are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Mjondalen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Tromso at 70%, Mjondalen at 70%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Tromso) and 50% (Mjondalen).
On the defensive side: Mjondalen in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tromso home games / Mjondalen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Tromso play Mjondalen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Tromso's games and 70% of Mjondalen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Tromso vs Mjondalen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Tromso's recent games and 50% of Mjondalen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Tromso and Mjondalen tend to score early?
Tromso have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Mjondalen in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Tromso edge out Mjondalen 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tromso beat Mjondalen 1-0 at Alfheim Stadion, Regular Season - 23, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tromso 1.84 xG and Mjondalen 1.08 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Tromso fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Mjondalen landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tromso attack 0.77 / defence 1.16 against Mjondalen attack 0.74 / defence 1.34, drawn from 22/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tromso 53% | Draw 27% | Mjondalen 20%, with Tromso to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tromso 59%, Mjondalen 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tromso's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Mjondalen's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Tromso 1.00 PPG, Mjondalen 0.68 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Tromso win broke the near-deadlock. Tromso (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line. Mjondalen (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.