Stromsgodset 0-2 Valerenga – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Valerenga at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stromsgodset vs Valerenga encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Marienlyst Stadion plays host to Stromsgodset versus Valerenga in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off: Sunday 1 November 2020 at 19:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Stromsgodset have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 1W 6D 3L. Last five: D D D D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Stromsgodset, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Marienlyst Stadion, Stromsgodset have gone 2W 5D 3L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Valerenga's overall Eliteserien record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W L W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Valerenga, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Valerenga have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Valerenga are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (1.70 vs 0.90). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Stromsgodset have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Valerenga in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Stromsgodset lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Jul 2020, ended 0–2 with Valerenga winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Stromsgodset goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Valerenga goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Stromsgodset 64% and Valerenga 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stromsgodset 59% | Valerenga 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stromsgodset 1.22 xG and Valerenga 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stromsgodset attack 0.848 / defence 1.362 | Valerenga attack 0.815 / defence 1.065. League average goals — home 1.356 / away 1.384. Data: 22 Stromsgodset games / 22 Valerenga games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stromsgodset 30% | Draw 26% | Valerenga 44%. Fair-value odds: Stromsgodset 3.33 | Draw 3.85 | Valerenga 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Valerenga as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Valerenga if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.76 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Stromsgodset 70% | Valerenga 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stromsgodset vs Valerenga | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Marienlyst Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Nov 2020, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stromsgodset 30% | Draw 26% | Valerenga 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Stromsgodset 1.22 / Valerenga 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: Stromsgodset attack 0.848 / def 1.362 | Valerenga attack 0.815 / def 1.065 | league avg home 1.356 / away 1.384 • Poisson stance: Valerenga (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Stromsgodset xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Valerenga xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stromsgodset vs Valerenga kick off?
Stromsgodset vs Valerenga kicked off at 19:30 on Sunday 1 November 2020 at Marienlyst Stadion.
What was the final score in Stromsgodset vs Valerenga?
Stromsgodset 0 - 2 Valerenga.
Where is Stromsgodset vs Valerenga being played?
The match is being played at Marienlyst Stadion.
What competition is Stromsgodset vs Valerenga part of?
Stromsgodset vs Valerenga is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Stromsgodset vs Valerenga?
Our statistical model gives Stromsgodset a 30% chance of winning, Valerenga a 44% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Valerenga the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stromsgodset vs Valerenga?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Stromsgodset and Valerenga will score (BTTS).
Will Stromsgodset vs Valerenga have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stromsgodset and Valerenga?
Record (1 meetings): Stromsgodset 0W | Draws 0 | Valerenga 1W.
What form are Stromsgodset and Valerenga in?
Stromsgodset (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-D-D-L. Valerenga (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Stromsgodset's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Valerenga's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.22. Flip it around — Valerenga's attack (0.81x) against Stromsgodset's defence (1.36x) — and the away total comes out at 1.54.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 0-1 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Valerenga Win
30%
3.32
26%
3.90
44%
2.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Stromsgodset xG
Total xG
2.76
1.54
Valerenga xG
3.32
30%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
2.26
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
22%
4.65
29%
3.40
Win to Nil
6%
15.44
13%
7.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 9.7 | 7.5 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 11.9 | 9.1 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.3 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stromsgodset vs Valerenga?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Stromsgodset and Valerenga expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Stromsgodset and 1.54 for Valerenga, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Stromsgodset vs Valerenga?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Stromsgodset's recent record stands at 5W 9D 8L from 22 games, a 1.09 PPG return, with D-D-D-D-L in the last five. The sample for Stromsgodset is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Valerenga, meanwhile, have gone 11W 6D 5L across 22 games — 1.77 PPG, with W-L-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Valerenga is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Valerenga by 0.68 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Stromsgodset heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Stromsgodset have managed 3W 5D 3L from 11 games — 1.27 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Valerenga's away record stands at 4W 2D 5L across 11 trips, a 1.27 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.77 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Valerenga's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Stromsgodset are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.82 conceded per game recently; Valerenga are on 1.68 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Stromsgodset have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Valerenga in 68%.
Last 22 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stromsgodset
Blended
Valerenga
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stromsgodset and Valerenga in coming into this match?
Stromsgodset have gone 5W 9D 8L in their last 22 games (1.09 PPG), while Valerenga have gone 11W 6D 5L in their last 22 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stromsgodset at home or Valerenga away?
Stromsgodset's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stromsgodset at home: 1.27 PPG; Valerenga away: 1.27 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 26 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Valerenga go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Valerenga won 4-0 on 1 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stromsgodset have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Valerenga — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Stromsgodset
1
Draws
7
Valerenga
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stromsgodset and Valerenga?
From 10 meetings on record, Stromsgodset have won 2, Valerenga have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Stromsgodset and Valerenga last play each other?
They last met on 26 October 2025, when Valerenga 2-1 Stromsgodset.
Who has won more matches between Stromsgodset and Valerenga?
Valerenga have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Stromsgodset are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Valerenga are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stromsgodset 64%, Valerenga 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Stromsgodset) and 54% (Valerenga).
On the defensive side: Valerenga in 36%; Stromsgodset have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stromsgodset home games / Valerenga away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stromsgodset play Valerenga?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Stromsgodset's games and 54% of Valerenga's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Stromsgodset vs Valerenga usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Stromsgodset's recent games and 54% of Valerenga's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stromsgodset and Valerenga tend to score early?
Stromsgodset have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Valerenga in 91% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Valerenga cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Stromsgodset.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Valerenga beat Stromsgodset 0-2 at Marienlyst Stadion, Regular Season - 23, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stromsgodset 1.22 xG and Valerenga 1.54 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Stromsgodset fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stromsgodset attack 0.85 / defence 1.36 against Valerenga attack 0.81 / defence 1.06, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stromsgodset 30% | Draw 26% | Valerenga 44%, with Valerenga to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stromsgodset 59%, Valerenga 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stromsgodset's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Valerenga's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Valerenga arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.09. Form held, and they took the win. Stromsgodset (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.45 scoring average — below par going forward. Valerenga (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.45 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.