Stromsgodset 4-0 Sandefjord – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stromsgodset at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stromsgodset vs Sandefjord fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sandefjord make the trip to Marienlyst Stadion to face Stromsgodset in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Thursday 24 June 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Stromsgodset (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Stromsgodset at Marienlyst Stadion this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Sandefjord's overall Eliteserien record this term: 2W 6D 2L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W D D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Sandefjord's away record: 5W 1D 4L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.80 for Stromsgodset, 1.20 for Sandefjord — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading & In-Play
Stromsgodset — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Sandefjord — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stromsgodset 63% versus Sandefjord 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stromsgodset 67% | Sandefjord 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stromsgodset 1.92 xG and Sandefjord 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stromsgodset attack 1.082 / defence 1.013 | Sandefjord attack 1.091 / defence 1.077. League average goals — home 1.645 / away 1.229. Data: 37 Stromsgodset games / 36 Sandefjord games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stromsgodset 49% | Draw 25% | Sandefjord 26%. Fair-value odds: Stromsgodset 2.04 | Draw 4.00 | Sandefjord 3.85. Stromsgodset hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.28. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.28 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.92 / 1.36) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Stromsgodset as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Stromsgodset if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.28 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Stromsgodset 60% | Sandefjord 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stromsgodset vs Sandefjord | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Marienlyst Stadion • Kick-off: Thursday 24 Jun 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stromsgodset 49% | Draw 25% | Sandefjord 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 65% | xG Stromsgodset 1.92 / Sandefjord 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Stromsgodset attack 1.082 / def 1.013 | Sandefjord attack 1.091 / def 1.077 | league avg home 1.645 / away 1.229 • Poisson stance: Stromsgodset (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.92
Stromsgodset xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Sandefjord xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stromsgodset vs Sandefjord kick off?
Stromsgodset vs Sandefjord kicked off at 17:00 on Thursday 24 June 2021 at Marienlyst Stadion.
What was the final score in Stromsgodset vs Sandefjord?
Stromsgodset 4 - 0 Sandefjord.
Where is Stromsgodset vs Sandefjord being played?
The match is being played at Marienlyst Stadion.
What competition is Stromsgodset vs Sandefjord part of?
Stromsgodset vs Sandefjord is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Stromsgodset vs Sandefjord?
Our statistical model gives Stromsgodset a 49% chance of winning, Sandefjord a 26% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Stromsgodset the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stromsgodset vs Sandefjord?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Stromsgodset and Sandefjord will score (BTTS).
Will Stromsgodset vs Sandefjord have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stromsgodset and Sandefjord?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Stromsgodset and Sandefjord in?
Stromsgodset (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-W-W-L. Sandefjord (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Stromsgodset's attack at 1.08x the league average against Sandefjord's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.92 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sandefjord's attack (1.09x) against Stromsgodset's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.36.
These ratings are built from 37/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Stromsgodset Win
49%
2.03
25%
4.07
26%
3.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
7.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.92
Stromsgodset xG
Total xG
3.28
1.36
Sandefjord xG
2.03
49%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
3.84
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.55
35%
BTTS No
2.82
Clean Sheet
26%
3.89
15%
6.80
Win to Nil
13%
7.88
4%
26.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 5.1 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 9.8 | 6.7 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.4 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 6.0 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stromsgodset vs Sandefjord?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Stromsgodset and Sandefjord expected to score?
The model projects 1.92 expected goals for Stromsgodset and 1.36 for Sandefjord, a combined total of 3.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Stromsgodset vs Sandefjord?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Stromsgodset come into this having played 30 games, going 7W 10D 13L for 1.03 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-W-L.
On the other side, Sandefjord sit at 1.17 PPG from 30 outings (9W 8D 13L), a run that reads W-D-D-D-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.03 PPG for Stromsgodset against 1.17 for Sandefjord. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Stromsgodset's home form reads 3W 6D 6L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Sandefjord have taken 1.27 points per game from 15 outings (6W 1D 8L).
Attack vs Defence
Stromsgodset are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game recently; Sandefjord are on 1.03 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Stromsgodset have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 30 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stromsgodset
Current Season
Sandefjord
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stromsgodset and Sandefjord in coming into this match?
Stromsgodset have gone 7W 10D 13L in their last 30 games (1.03 PPG), while Sandefjord have gone 9W 8D 13L in their last 30 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stromsgodset at home or Sandefjord away?
Sandefjord's away record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stromsgodset at home: 1.00 PPG; Sandefjord away: 1.27 PPG.
Have Stromsgodset or Sandefjord been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stromsgodset have kept a clean sheet in 10% of their recent games, Sandefjord in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 22 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Sandefjord have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sandefjord won 0-5 on 23 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stromsgodset have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sandefjord — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Stromsgodset
3
Draws
5
Sandefjord
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stromsgodset and Sandefjord?
From 10 meetings on record, Stromsgodset have won 2, Sandefjord have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Stromsgodset and Sandefjord last play each other?
They last met on 22 November 2025, when Stromsgodset 2-6 Sandefjord.
Who has won more matches between Stromsgodset and Sandefjord?
Sandefjord have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Stromsgodset are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Sandefjord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stromsgodset 60%, Sandefjord 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Stromsgodset) and 53% (Sandefjord). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sandefjord in 33%; Stromsgodset have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stromsgodset home games / Sandefjord away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stromsgodset play Sandefjord?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Stromsgodset's games and 53% of Sandefjord's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Stromsgodset vs Sandefjord usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Stromsgodset's matches and 53% of Sandefjord's.
Do Stromsgodset and Sandefjord tend to score early?
Stromsgodset have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Sandefjord in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Stromsgodset run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Sandefjord.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stromsgodset beat Sandefjord 4-0 at Marienlyst Stadion, Regular Season - 9, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stromsgodset 1.92 xG and Sandefjord 1.36 xG, a combined 3.28. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Stromsgodset beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sandefjord landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stromsgodset attack 1.08 / defence 1.01 against Sandefjord attack 1.09 / defence 1.08, drawn from 37/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stromsgodset 49% | Draw 25% | Sandefjord 26%, with Stromsgodset to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stromsgodset 67%, Sandefjord 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stromsgodset's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Sandefjord's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stromsgodset 1.03 PPG, Sandefjord 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stromsgodset win broke the near-deadlock. Stromsgodset (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.27 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line. Sandefjord (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.53 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.