Stromsgodset 1-0 ODD Ballklubb – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates ODD Ballklubb at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stromsgodset vs ODD Ballklubb fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
ODD Ballklubb make the trip to Marienlyst Stadion to face Stromsgodset in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 2. The match kicks off on Sunday 21 June 2020 at 17:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stromsgodset 0.74 xG and ODD Ballklubb 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stromsgodset attack 0.983 / defence 1.150 | ODD Ballklubb attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.651 / away 1.478. Data: 1 Stromsgodset games / 1 ODD Ballklubb games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Stromsgodset 19% | Draw 27% | ODD Ballklubb 54%. Fair-value odds: Stromsgodset 5.26 | Draw 3.70 | ODD Ballklubb 1.85. ODD Ballklubb hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates ODD Ballklubb as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on ODD Ballklubb if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.18 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stromsgodset vs ODD Ballklubb | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Marienlyst Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Jun 2020, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stromsgodset 19% | Draw 27% | ODD Ballklubb 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 40% | xG Stromsgodset 0.74 / ODD Ballklubb 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Stromsgodset attack 0.983 / def 1.150 | ODD Ballklubb attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.651 / away 1.478 • Poisson stance: ODD Ballklubb (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.74
Stromsgodset xG
Expected Goals
1.45
ODD Ballklubb xG
40%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stromsgodset vs ODD Ballklubb kick off?
Stromsgodset vs ODD Ballklubb kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 21 June 2020 at Marienlyst Stadion.
What was the final score in Stromsgodset vs ODD Ballklubb?
Stromsgodset 1 - 0 ODD Ballklubb.
Where is Stromsgodset vs ODD Ballklubb being played?
The match is being played at Marienlyst Stadion.
What competition is Stromsgodset vs ODD Ballklubb part of?
Stromsgodset vs ODD Ballklubb is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Stromsgodset vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our statistical model gives Stromsgodset a 19% chance of winning, ODD Ballklubb a 54% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making ODD Ballklubb the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stromsgodset vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Stromsgodset and ODD Ballklubb will score (BTTS).
Will Stromsgodset vs ODD Ballklubb have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stromsgodset and ODD Ballklubb?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Stromsgodset and ODD Ballklubb in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Stromsgodset's attack at 0.98x the league average against ODD Ballklubb's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 0.74 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — ODD Ballklubb's attack (0.85x) against Stromsgodset's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.45.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (13.6%), 0-0 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
ODD Ballklubb Win
19%
5.25
27%
3.72
54%
1.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
0 – 2
11.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.74
Stromsgodset xG
Total xG
2.18
1.45
ODD Ballklubb xG
5.25
19%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
1.85
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.51
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
24%
4.24
48%
2.09
Win to Nil
4%
22.27
26%
3.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 16.3 | 11.8 | 5.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 12.0 | 8.7 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 4.4 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stromsgodset vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Stromsgodset and ODD Ballklubb expected to score?
The model projects 0.74 expected goals for Stromsgodset and 1.45 for ODD Ballklubb, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Stromsgodset vs ODD Ballklubb?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stromsgodset
Pre-Season
ODD Ballklubb
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since June 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 July 2024, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: ODD Ballklubb won 5-1 on 6 Nov 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stromsgodset have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against ODD Ballklubb — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Stromsgodset
3
Draws
2
ODD Ballklubb
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stromsgodset and ODD Ballklubb?
From 10 meetings on record, Stromsgodset have won 5, ODD Ballklubb have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Stromsgodset and ODD Ballklubb last play each other?
They last met on 28 July 2024, when ODD Ballklubb 2-0 Stromsgodset.
Who has won more matches between Stromsgodset and ODD Ballklubb?
Stromsgodset have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stromsgodset home games / ODD Ballklubb away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Stromsgodset defy the odds to beat ODD Ballklubb 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stromsgodset beat ODD Ballklubb 1-0 at Marienlyst Stadion, Regular Season - 2, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stromsgodset 0.74 xG and ODD Ballklubb 1.45 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. ODD Ballklubb landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stromsgodset attack 0.98 / defence 1.15 against ODD Ballklubb attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Stromsgodset 19% | Draw 27% | ODD Ballklubb 54%, with ODD Ballklubb to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Stromsgodset win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.