Stromsgodset 3-1 Brann – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stromsgodset at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stromsgodset vs Brann fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Brann travel to Marienlyst Stadion to take on Stromsgodset. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 29 July 2020, 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Stromsgodset — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Stromsgodset, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stromsgodset's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 1L across 5 games at Marienlyst Stadion this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Brann stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Brann, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Brann away from home this season: 2W 1D 2L from 5 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Stromsgodset 1.20 PPG, Brann 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Profile
Stromsgodset in-play tendencies (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
Brann in-play tendencies (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stromsgodset 50% versus Brann 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stromsgodset 60% | Brann 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stromsgodset 1.33 xG and Brann 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stromsgodset attack 0.861 / defence 1.241 | Brann attack 0.685 / defence 1.306. League average goals — home 1.185 / away 1.335. Brann bring a strong defensive rating of 1.306 — this is suppressing Stromsgodset's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 10 Stromsgodset games / 10 Brann games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stromsgodset 41% | Draw 27% | Brann 32%. Fair-value odds: Stromsgodset 2.44 | Draw 3.70 | Brann 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Stromsgodset at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stromsgodset offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.47 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates are neutral: Stromsgodset 60% | Brann 40%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stromsgodset vs Brann | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Marienlyst Stadion • Kick-off: Wednesday 29 Jul 2020, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stromsgodset 41% | Draw 27% | Brann 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Stromsgodset 1.33 / Brann 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Stromsgodset attack 0.861 / def 1.241 | Brann attack 0.685 / def 1.306 | league avg home 1.185 / away 1.335 • Poisson stance: Stromsgodset (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Stromsgodset xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Brann xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stromsgodset vs Brann kick off?
Stromsgodset vs Brann kicked off at 17:00 on Wednesday 29 July 2020 at Marienlyst Stadion.
What was the final score in Stromsgodset vs Brann?
Stromsgodset 3 - 1 Brann.
Where is Stromsgodset vs Brann being played?
The match is being played at Marienlyst Stadion.
What competition is Stromsgodset vs Brann part of?
Stromsgodset vs Brann is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Stromsgodset vs Brann?
Our statistical model gives Stromsgodset a 41% chance of winning, Brann a 32% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Stromsgodset the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stromsgodset vs Brann?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Stromsgodset and Brann will score (BTTS).
Will Stromsgodset vs Brann have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stromsgodset and Brann?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Stromsgodset and Brann in?
Stromsgodset (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. Brann (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Stromsgodset's attack rating (0.86) and Brann's defence rating (1.31), the model arrives at 1.33 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Brann's attack versus Stromsgodset's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 1-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stromsgodset Win
41%
2.43
27%
3.70
32%
3.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Stromsgodset xG
Total xG
2.47
1.14
Brann xG
2.43
41%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
3.15
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
32%
3.11
26%
3.79
Win to Nil
13%
7.55
8%
11.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 9.6 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.8 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.5 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stromsgodset vs Brann?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Stromsgodset and Brann expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Stromsgodset and 1.14 for Brann, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Stromsgodset vs Brann?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 10 outings, Stromsgodset have picked up 1.20 PPG on a 3W 3D 4L record — D-L-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Stromsgodset is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Brann's form line: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games, 1.50 PPG, last five L-W-L-D-D. The sample for Brann is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Stromsgodset on 1.20 PPG, Brann on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Stromsgodset have posted 1.60 PPG from 5 outings (2W 2D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.20 PPG overall — Stromsgodset are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Brann have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 away games — 1.40 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Stromsgodset are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game recently; Brann are on 1.40 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Brann in 60%.
Last 10 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stromsgodset
Blended
Brann
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stromsgodset and Brann in coming into this match?
Stromsgodset have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 games (1.20 PPG), while Brann have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stromsgodset at home or Brann away?
Stromsgodset's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stromsgodset at home: 1.60 PPG; Brann away: 1.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 April 2025, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Brann have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 May 2021, when Brann won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Stromsgodset's record when hosting Brann specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Stromsgodset
2
Draws
5
Brann
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stromsgodset and Brann?
From 10 meetings on record, Stromsgodset have won 3, Brann have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Stromsgodset and Brann last play each other?
They last met on 21 April 2025, when Stromsgodset 1-2 Brann.
Who has won more matches between Stromsgodset and Brann?
Brann have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Stromsgodset are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Brann are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stromsgodset 60%, Brann 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Stromsgodset and 60% for Brann. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Brann in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stromsgodset home games / Brann away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stromsgodset play Brann?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Stromsgodset's recent matches and 40% of Brann's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stromsgodset vs Brann usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Stromsgodset's matches and 60% of Brann's.
Do Stromsgodset and Brann tend to score early?
Stromsgodset have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Brann in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stromsgodset cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Brann.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stromsgodset beat Brann 3-1 at Marienlyst Stadion, Regular Season - 11, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stromsgodset 1.33 xG and Brann 1.14 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Stromsgodset beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stromsgodset attack 0.86 / defence 1.24 against Brann attack 0.69 / defence 1.31, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stromsgodset 41% | Draw 27% | Brann 32%, with Stromsgodset to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stromsgodset 60%, Brann 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stromsgodset's trading profile (10 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Brann's trading profile (10 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stromsgodset 1.20 PPG, Brann 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stromsgodset win broke the near-deadlock. Stromsgodset (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm. Brann (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.