Stabaek 2-0 Sandefjord – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sandefjord at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stabaek vs Sandefjord fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees Sandefjord travel to Nadderud Stadion to take on Stabaek. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 24 June 2020, 17:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stabaek 1.11 xG and Sandefjord 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stabaek attack 0.751 / defence 0.981 | Sandefjord attack 0.931 / defence 1.092. League average goals — home 1.352 / away 1.364. Stabaek's attack strength of 0.751 is below the league average — the 1.11 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 2 Stabaek games / 2 Sandefjord games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Stabaek 33% | Draw 28% | Sandefjord 39%. Fair-value odds: Stabaek 3.03 | Draw 3.57 | Sandefjord 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sandefjord as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sandefjord offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.35 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stabaek vs Sandefjord | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Nadderud Stadion • Kick-off: Wednesday 24 Jun 2020, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stabaek 33% | Draw 28% | Sandefjord 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Stabaek 1.11 / Sandefjord 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Stabaek attack 0.751 / def 0.981 | Sandefjord attack 0.931 / def 1.092 | league avg home 1.352 / away 1.364 • Poisson stance: Sandefjord (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Stabaek xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Sandefjord xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stabaek vs Sandefjord kick off?
Stabaek vs Sandefjord kicked off at 17:00 on Wednesday 24 June 2020 at Nadderud Stadion.
What was the final score in Stabaek vs Sandefjord?
Stabaek 2 - 0 Sandefjord.
Where is Stabaek vs Sandefjord being played?
The match is being played at Nadderud Stadion.
What competition is Stabaek vs Sandefjord part of?
Stabaek vs Sandefjord is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Stabaek vs Sandefjord?
Our statistical model gives Stabaek a 33% chance of winning, Sandefjord a 39% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Sandefjord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stabaek vs Sandefjord?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Stabaek and Sandefjord will score (BTTS).
Will Stabaek vs Sandefjord have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stabaek and Sandefjord?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Stabaek and Sandefjord in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Stabaek's attack at 0.75x the league average against Sandefjord's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.11 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sandefjord's attack versus Stabaek's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 0-1 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sandefjord Win
33%
3.06
28%
3.59
39%
2.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Stabaek xG
Total xG
2.35
1.25
Sandefjord xG
3.06
33%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
2.54
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
29%
3.48
33%
3.03
Win to Nil
9%
10.63
13%
7.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 11.8 | 7.4 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 13.1 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.3 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stabaek vs Sandefjord?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Stabaek and Sandefjord expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Stabaek and 1.25 for Sandefjord, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Stabaek vs Sandefjord?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stabaek
Pre-Season
Sandefjord
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Stabaek and Sandefjord runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 November 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Sep 2021, when Stabaek won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Stabaek's record when hosting Sandefjord specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Stabaek
2
Draws
1
Sandefjord
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stabaek and Sandefjord?
From 6 meetings on record, Stabaek have won 3, Sandefjord have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Stabaek and Sandefjord last play each other?
They last met on 26 November 2023, when Stabaek 2-1 Sandefjord.
Who has won more matches between Stabaek and Sandefjord?
Stabaek have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stabaek home games / Sandefjord away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Stabaek cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Sandefjord.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stabaek beat Sandefjord 2-0 at Nadderud Stadion, Regular Season - 3, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stabaek 1.11 xG and Sandefjord 1.25 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Stabaek beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sandefjord landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stabaek attack 0.75 / defence 0.98 against Sandefjord attack 0.93 / defence 1.09, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Stabaek 33% | Draw 28% | Sandefjord 39%, with Sandefjord to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Stabaek win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.