Stabaek vs Rosenborg – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Rosenborg at 41% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stabaek vs Rosenborg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Nadderud Stadion plays host to Stabaek versus Rosenborg in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Sunday 20 June 2021 at 01:00 UTC.
Current Form
Stabaek's overall Eliteserien record this term: 3W 5D 2L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W D L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Stabaek's home record at Nadderud Stadion: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Rosenborg (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Rosenborg have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Stabaek 0W, Rosenborg 2W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.3 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 30 May 2021, ended 2–4 with Rosenborg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Stabaek — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Rosenborg — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stabaek 50% versus Rosenborg 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stabaek 53% | Rosenborg 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stabaek 1.34 xG and Rosenborg 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stabaek attack 0.887 / defence 1.205 | Rosenborg attack 1.057 / defence 0.892. League average goals — home 1.692 / away 1.225. Data: 35 Stabaek games / 38 Rosenborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stabaek 31% | Draw 28% | Rosenborg 41%. Fair-value odds: Stabaek 3.23 | Draw 3.57 | Rosenborg 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.34 / 1.56) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Rosenborg at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rosenborg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.90 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Stabaek 50% | Rosenborg 50%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stabaek vs Rosenborg | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Nadderud Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Jun 2021, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stabaek 31% | Draw 28% | Rosenborg 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 60% | xG Stabaek 1.34 / Rosenborg 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: Stabaek attack 0.887 / def 1.205 | Rosenborg attack 1.057 / def 0.892 | league avg home 1.692 / away 1.225 • Poisson stance: Rosenborg (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Stabaek xG
Expected Goals
1.56
Rosenborg xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stabaek vs Rosenborg kick off?
Stabaek vs Rosenborg kicked off at 01:00 on Sunday 20 June 2021 at Nadderud Stadion.
Where is Stabaek vs Rosenborg being played?
The match is being played at Nadderud Stadion.
What competition is Stabaek vs Rosenborg part of?
Stabaek vs Rosenborg is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Stabaek vs Rosenborg?
Our statistical model gives Stabaek a 31% chance of winning, Rosenborg a 41% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Rosenborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stabaek vs Rosenborg?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Stabaek and Rosenborg will score (BTTS).
Will Stabaek vs Rosenborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stabaek and Rosenborg?
Record (3 meetings): Stabaek 0W | Draws 1 | Rosenborg 2W.
What form are Stabaek and Rosenborg in?
Stabaek (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-D-W. Rosenborg (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Stabaek's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Rosenborg's defensive record (0.89x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. Flip it around — Rosenborg's attack (1.06x) against Stabaek's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.56.
These ratings are built from 35/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Rosenborg Win
31%
3.24
28%
3.52
41%
2.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Stabaek xG
Total xG
2.90
1.56
Rosenborg xG
3.24
31%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
2.45
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
21%
4.76
26%
3.81
Win to Nil
6%
15.43
11%
9.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 8.6 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.5 | 9.0 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.7 | 6.0 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.4 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stabaek vs Rosenborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Stabaek and Rosenborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Stabaek and 1.56 for Rosenborg, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Stabaek vs Rosenborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 30 outings, Stabaek have picked up 1.30 PPG on a 9W 12D 9L record — W-D-L-D-W across the most recent five.
Rosenborg's form line: 15W 7D 8L from 30 games, 1.73 PPG, last five L-L-W-W-D.
Put side by side, Rosenborg are the form team by 0.43 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Stabaek.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Stabaek have posted 1.40 PPG from 15 outings (5W 6D 4L).
On the road, Rosenborg have gone 5W 4D 6L from 15 away games — 1.27 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.73 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rosenborg's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Stabaek are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Rosenborg are on 1.67 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Last 30 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stabaek
Current Season
Rosenborg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stabaek and Rosenborg in coming into this match?
Stabaek have gone 9W 12D 9L in their last 30 games (1.30 PPG), while Rosenborg have gone 15W 7D 8L in their last 30 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stabaek at home or Rosenborg away?
Stabaek's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stabaek at home: 1.40 PPG; Rosenborg away: 1.27 PPG.
Have Stabaek or Rosenborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stabaek have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Rosenborg in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since July 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 October 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Rosenborg won 0-3 on 5 Jul 2020, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stabaek have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Rosenborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Stabaek
3
Draws
3
Rosenborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stabaek and Rosenborg?
From 6 meetings on record, Stabaek have won 0, Rosenborg have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Stabaek and Rosenborg last play each other?
They last met on 22 October 2023, when Rosenborg 1-1 Stabaek.
Who has won more matches between Stabaek and Rosenborg?
Rosenborg have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Stabaek are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stabaek 40%, Rosenborg 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Stabaek) and 53% (Rosenborg).
On the defensive side: Stabaek keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Rosenborg in 33%; Stabaek have failed to score in 33% of games; Rosenborg in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stabaek home games / Rosenborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stabaek play Rosenborg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Stabaek's recent matches and 40% of Rosenborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stabaek vs Rosenborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Stabaek's recent games and 53% of Rosenborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stabaek and Rosenborg tend to score early?
Stabaek have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Rosenborg in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Stabaek's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Nadderud Stadion, Regular Season - 11, as Stabaek and Rosenborg drew 0-0 in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stabaek 1.34 xG and Rosenborg 1.56 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Stabaek fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Rosenborg landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stabaek attack 0.89 / defence 1.21 against Rosenborg attack 1.06 / defence 0.89, drawn from 35/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stabaek 31% | Draw 28% | Rosenborg 41%, with Rosenborg to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stabaek 53%, Rosenborg 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stabaek's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Rosenborg's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Rosenborg arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.30. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Stabaek (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line. Rosenborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.