Stabaek 0-1 ODD Ballklubb – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates ODD Ballklubb at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stabaek vs ODD Ballklubb encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees ODD Ballklubb travel to Nadderud Stadion to take on Stabaek. The game is scheduled for Sunday 9 August 2020, 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Stabaek have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: D W D D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Stabaek, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Stabaek have posted 2W 3D 1L at Nadderud Stadion — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 6 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Nadderud Stadion.
ODD Ballklubb — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for ODD Ballklubb, so this record blends games from this season and last.
ODD Ballklubb's away record: 3W 0D 2L from 5 road trips in Eliteserien this season (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 2 clean sheets from 5 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form points away from home here. ODD Ballklubb's 2.20 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Stabaek's 1.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Trading Patterns
Stabaek in-play and half-time data (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
ODD Ballklubb in-play and half-time data (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stabaek 58% versus ODD Ballklubb 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stabaek 58% | ODD Ballklubb 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stabaek 1.02 xG and ODD Ballklubb 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stabaek attack 0.812 / defence 1.028 | ODD Ballklubb attack 1.035 / defence 0.950. League average goals — home 1.325 / away 1.293. Data: 12 Stabaek games / 12 ODD Ballklubb games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stabaek 27% | Draw 28% | ODD Ballklubb 44%. Fair-value odds: Stabaek 3.70 | Draw 3.57 | ODD Ballklubb 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates ODD Ballklubb as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on ODD Ballklubb offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.40 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Stabaek 33% | ODD Ballklubb 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stabaek vs ODD Ballklubb | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Nadderud Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Aug 2020, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stabaek 27% | Draw 28% | ODD Ballklubb 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Stabaek 1.02 / ODD Ballklubb 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Stabaek attack 0.812 / def 1.028 | ODD Ballklubb attack 1.035 / def 0.950 | league avg home 1.325 / away 1.293 • Poisson stance: ODD Ballklubb (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Stabaek xG
Expected Goals
1.38
ODD Ballklubb xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stabaek vs ODD Ballklubb kick off?
Stabaek vs ODD Ballklubb kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 9 August 2020 at Nadderud Stadion.
What was the final score in Stabaek vs ODD Ballklubb?
Stabaek 0 - 1 ODD Ballklubb.
Where is Stabaek vs ODD Ballklubb being played?
The match is being played at Nadderud Stadion.
What competition is Stabaek vs ODD Ballklubb part of?
Stabaek vs ODD Ballklubb is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Stabaek vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our statistical model gives Stabaek a 27% chance of winning, ODD Ballklubb a 44% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making ODD Ballklubb the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stabaek vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Stabaek and ODD Ballklubb will score (BTTS).
Will Stabaek vs ODD Ballklubb have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stabaek and ODD Ballklubb?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Stabaek and ODD Ballklubb in?
Stabaek (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-D-D-L. ODD Ballklubb (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Stabaek's attack at 0.81x the league average against ODD Ballklubb's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.02 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, ODD Ballklubb's attack versus Stabaek's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.8%), 0-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
ODD Ballklubb Win
27%
3.67
28%
3.52
44%
2.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.5%
Away win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Stabaek xG
Total xG
2.40
1.38
ODD Ballklubb xG
3.67
27%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
2.25
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.06
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
25%
3.96
36%
2.78
Win to Nil
7%
14.54
16%
6.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 12.5 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.8 | 8.8 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 6.5 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stabaek vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Stabaek and ODD Ballklubb expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Stabaek and 1.38 for ODD Ballklubb, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Stabaek vs ODD Ballklubb?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Stabaek's recent record stands at 4W 5D 3L from 12 games, a 1.42 PPG return, with D-W-D-D-L in the last five. The sample for Stabaek is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
ODD Ballklubb, meanwhile, have gone 7W 1D 4L across 12 games — 1.83 PPG, with W-L-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for ODD Ballklubb is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours ODD Ballklubb by 0.41 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Stabaek heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Stabaek have managed 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — 1.60 PPG in front of their own supporters.
ODD Ballklubb's away record stands at 3W 0D 2L across 5 trips, a 1.80 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Stabaek are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; ODD Ballklubb are on 1.67 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Last 12 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stabaek
Blended
ODD Ballklubb
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stabaek and ODD Ballklubb in coming into this match?
Stabaek have gone 4W 5D 3L in their last 12 games (1.42 PPG), while ODD Ballklubb have gone 7W 1D 4L in their last 12 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stabaek at home or ODD Ballklubb away?
ODD Ballklubb's away record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stabaek at home: 1.60 PPG; ODD Ballklubb away: 1.80 PPG.
Have Stabaek or ODD Ballklubb been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stabaek have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, ODD Ballklubb in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 August 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Aug 2023, when ODD Ballklubb won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Stabaek's record when hosting ODD Ballklubb specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Stabaek
2
Draws
4
ODD Ballklubb
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stabaek and ODD Ballklubb?
From 6 meetings on record, Stabaek have won 0, ODD Ballklubb have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Stabaek and ODD Ballklubb last play each other?
They last met on 6 August 2023, when ODD Ballklubb 4-0 Stabaek.
Who has won more matches between Stabaek and ODD Ballklubb?
ODD Ballklubb have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Stabaek are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
ODD Ballklubb are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Stabaek 40% BTTS, ODD Ballklubb 20%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Stabaek) and 40% (ODD Ballklubb).
On the defensive side: Stabaek keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; ODD Ballklubb in 40%; ODD Ballklubb in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stabaek home games / ODD Ballklubb away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stabaek play ODD Ballklubb?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Stabaek's recent matches and 20% of ODD Ballklubb's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stabaek vs ODD Ballklubb usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Stabaek's recent games and 40% of ODD Ballklubb's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stabaek and ODD Ballklubb tend to score early?
Stabaek have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, ODD Ballklubb in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as ODD Ballklubb edge out Stabaek 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
ODD Ballklubb beat Stabaek 0-1 at Nadderud Stadion, Regular Season - 13, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stabaek 1.02 xG and ODD Ballklubb 1.38 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Stabaek fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stabaek attack 0.81 / defence 1.03 against ODD Ballklubb attack 1.03 / defence 0.95, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stabaek 27% | Draw 28% | ODD Ballklubb 44%, with ODD Ballklubb to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stabaek 58%, ODD Ballklubb 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stabaek's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
ODD Ballklubb's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, ODD Ballklubb arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.42. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Stabaek (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward. ODD Ballklubb (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.