Sarpsborg 08 FF 2-2 Stabaek – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sarpsborg 08 FF at 73% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Stabaek encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Stabaek make the trip to Sarpsborg Stadion to face Sarpsborg 08 FF in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 26. The match kicks off on Sunday 29 October 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Sarpsborg 08 FF (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W D W L. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sarpsborg 08 FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's home record at Sarpsborg Stadion: 7W 0D 3L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.90 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Sarpsborg 08 FF are significantly better at Sarpsborg Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Stabaek's overall Eliteserien record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: D L W W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Stabaek, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stabaek's form when playing away from home: 0W 3D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in Sarpsborg 08 FF's favour (1.60 vs 0.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Sarpsborg 08 FF register both teams scoring in 90% of relevant games, Stabaek in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Sarpsborg 08 FF 2W, Stabaek 1W, 2D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.4 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 7 May 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Sarpsborg 08 FF — key trading statistics (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Stabaek — key trading statistics (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sarpsborg 08 FF 68% versus Stabaek 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sarpsborg 08 FF 72% | Stabaek 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sarpsborg 08 FF 2.73 xG and Stabaek 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.351 / defence 1.070 | Stabaek attack 0.719 / defence 1.094. League average goals — home 1.849 / away 1.357. Sarpsborg 08 FF carry an above-average attack strength of 1.351 — their λ of 2.73 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 55 Sarpsborg 08 FF games / 25 Stabaek games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 73% | Draw 15% | Stabaek 12%. Fair-value odds: Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.37 | Draw 6.67 | Stabaek 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Sarpsborg 08 FF (73%) — a 61pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.78. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.78 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.73 / 1.04) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sarpsborg 08 FF are the pick at 73% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.78 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 73% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sarpsborg 08 FF 90% | Stabaek 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Stabaek | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Sarpsborg Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Oct 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 73% | Draw 15% | Stabaek 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% | BTTS 61% | xG Sarpsborg 08 FF 2.73 / Stabaek 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.351 / def 1.070 | Stabaek attack 0.719 / def 1.094 | league avg home 1.849 / away 1.357 • Poisson stance: Sarpsborg 08 FF (73%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.73
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Stabaek xG
61%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Stabaek kick off?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Stabaek kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 29 October 2023 at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What was the final score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Stabaek?
Sarpsborg 08 FF 2 - 2 Stabaek.
Where is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Stabaek being played?
The match is being played at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What competition is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Stabaek part of?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Stabaek is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Stabaek?
Our statistical model gives Sarpsborg 08 FF a 73% chance of winning, Stabaek a 12% chance, and a 15% chance of a draw — making Sarpsborg 08 FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Stabaek?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Sarpsborg 08 FF and Stabaek will score (BTTS).
Will Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Stabaek have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Stabaek?
Record (5 meetings): Sarpsborg 08 FF 2W | Draws 2 | Stabaek 1W.
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Stabaek in?
Sarpsborg 08 FF (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-W-L. Stabaek (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack rating (1.35) and Stabaek's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 2.73 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Stabaek's attack (0.72x) against Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 55/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.9%. Close behind: 2-0 (8.5%), 3-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sarpsborg 08 FF Win
73%
1.37
15%
6.56
12%
8.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.5%
Home win
3 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.73
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Total xG
3.78
1.04
Stabaek xG
1.37
73%
Home win
6.56
15%
Draw
8.40
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
33%
Over 4.5
3.03
67%
Under 4.5
1.49
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.54
Clean Sheet
35%
2.84
7%
15.38
Win to Nil
26%
3.90
1%
129.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 6.3 | 6.5 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 8.9 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.8 | 8.1 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.3 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Stabaek?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.9%.
How many goals are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Stabaek expected to score?
The model projects 2.73 expected goals for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 1.04 for Stabaek, a combined total of 3.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Stabaek?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 73%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sarpsborg 08 FF's recent record stands at 11W 4D 10L from 25 games, a 1.48 PPG return, with L-W-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Sarpsborg 08 FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Stabaek, meanwhile, have gone 6W 6D 13L across 25 games — 0.96 PPG, with D-L-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Stabaek is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sarpsborg 08 FF by 0.52 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Stabaek heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Sarpsborg 08 FF have managed 7W 1D 4L from 12 games — 1.83 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Stabaek's away record stands at 1W 3D 8L across 12 trips, a 0.50 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.96 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Stabaek's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sarpsborg 08 FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Sarpsborg 08 FF are averaging 1.92 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Stabaek are on 1.04 scored and 1.52 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sarpsborg 08 FF have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 25 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Blended
Stabaek
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Stabaek in coming into this match?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 11W 4D 10L in their last 25 games (1.48 PPG), while Stabaek have gone 6W 6D 13L in their last 25 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home or Stabaek away?
Sarpsborg 08 FF's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home: 1.83 PPG; Stabaek away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 October 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sarpsborg 08 FF won 4-0 on 3 Oct 2020, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Stabaek — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Sarpsborg 08 FF
3
Draws
1
Stabaek
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Stabaek?
From 6 meetings on record, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 2, Stabaek have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sarpsborg 08 FF and Stabaek last play each other?
They last met on 29 October 2023, when Sarpsborg 08 FF 2-2 Stabaek.
Who has won more matches between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Stabaek?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sarpsborg 08 FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time.
Stabaek are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 75% for Sarpsborg 08 FF, 67% for Stabaek — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 83% for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 67% for Stabaek. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 58% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Stabaek in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sarpsborg 08 FF home games / Stabaek away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sarpsborg 08 FF play Stabaek?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's games and 67% of Stabaek's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Stabaek usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's matches and 67% of Stabaek's.
Do Sarpsborg 08 FF and Stabaek tend to score early?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have had a goal before half-time in 92% of their recent matches, Stabaek in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sarpsborg 08 FF and Stabaek share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Sarpsborg Stadion, Regular Season - 26, as Sarpsborg 08 FF and Stabaek drew 2-2 in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sarpsborg 08 FF 2.73 xG and Stabaek 1.04 xG, a combined 3.78. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Stabaek outscored their 1.04 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.35 / defence 1.07 against Stabaek attack 0.72 / defence 1.09, drawn from 55/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sarpsborg 08 FF 73% | Draw 15% | Stabaek 12%, with Sarpsborg 08 FF to win its most likely call at 73%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 52% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sarpsborg 08 FF 72%, Stabaek 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Stabaek's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sarpsborg 08 FF arrived the stronger side — 1.48 PPG against 0.96. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Stabaek (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.92 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.