Sarpsborg 08 FF 6-1 Sandefjord – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Sarpsborg 08 FF (56%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Sarpsborg 08 FF face Sandefjord.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 12 as Sarpsborg 08 FF welcome Sandefjord to Sarpsborg Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 2 July 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Sarpsborg 08 FF — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sarpsborg 08 FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sarpsborg 08 FF at Sarpsborg Stadion this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sandefjord stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Sandefjord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Sandefjord have posted 0W 2D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Sarpsborg 08 FF carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.80 vs 0.90. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Sarpsborg 08 FF, 0 for Sandefjord and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 2 Oct 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Sarpsborg 08 FF in-play and half-time data (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Sandefjord in-play and half-time data (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sarpsborg 08 FF 66% and Sandefjord 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Sarpsborg 08 FF 63% | Sandefjord 78%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.83 xG and Sandefjord 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.904 / defence 1.106 | Sandefjord attack 0.745 / defence 1.180. League average goals — home 1.716 / away 1.258. Data: 41 Sarpsborg 08 FF games / 40 Sandefjord games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 56% | Draw 24% | Sandefjord 21%. Fair-value odds: Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.79 | Draw 4.17 | Sandefjord 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Sarpsborg 08 FF (56%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sarpsborg 08 FF as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.87 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Sarpsborg 08 FF 70% | Sandefjord 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Sandefjord | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Sarpsborg Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Jul 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 56% | Draw 24% | Sandefjord 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 55% | xG Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.83 / Sandefjord 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.904 / def 1.106 | Sandefjord attack 0.745 / def 1.180 | league avg home 1.716 / away 1.258 • Poisson stance: Sarpsborg 08 FF (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Sandefjord xG
55%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Sandefjord kick off?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Sandefjord kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 2 July 2023 at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What was the final score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Sandefjord?
Sarpsborg 08 FF 6 - 1 Sandefjord.
Where is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Sandefjord being played?
The match is being played at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What competition is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Sandefjord part of?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Sandefjord is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Sandefjord?
Our statistical model gives Sarpsborg 08 FF a 56% chance of winning, Sandefjord a 21% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Sarpsborg 08 FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Sandefjord?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Sarpsborg 08 FF and Sandefjord will score (BTTS).
Will Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Sandefjord have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Sandefjord?
Record (3 meetings): Sarpsborg 08 FF 2W | Draws 1 | Sandefjord 0W.
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Sandefjord in?
Sarpsborg 08 FF (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. Sandefjord (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack at 0.90x the league average against Sandefjord's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 1.83 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sandefjord's attack versus Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sarpsborg 08 FF Win
56%
1.80
24%
4.22
21%
4.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Total xG
2.87
1.04
Sandefjord xG
1.80
56%
Home win
4.22
24%
Draw
4.81
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
16%
6.23
Win to Nil
20%
5.08
3%
29.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 10.8 | 5.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 6.0 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Sandefjord?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Sandefjord expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 1.04 for Sandefjord, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Sandefjord?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sarpsborg 08 FF come into this having played 41 games, going 17W 8D 16L for 1.44 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-W. The sample for Sarpsborg 08 FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sandefjord sit at 0.80 PPG from 41 outings (8W 9D 24L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Sandefjord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sarpsborg 08 FF carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.64 PPG clear of Sandefjord — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Sarpsborg 08 FF's home form reads 8W 4D 8L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.40 PPG return.
Away from home, Sandefjord have taken 0.70 points per game from 20 outings (4W 2D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sarpsborg 08 FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sarpsborg 08 FF are averaging 1.76 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Sandefjord are on 1.37 scored and 2.05 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sarpsborg 08 FF have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games; Sandefjord in 61%.
Last 41 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Blended
Sandefjord
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Sandefjord in coming into this match?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 17W 8D 16L in their last 41 games (1.44 PPG), while Sandefjord have gone 8W 9D 24L in their last 41 (0.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home or Sandefjord away?
Sarpsborg 08 FF's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home: 1.40 PPG; Sandefjord away: 0.70 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Sarpsborg 08 FF have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Aug 2021, when Sarpsborg 08 FF won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's record when hosting Sandefjord specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Sarpsborg 08 FF
1
Draws
3
Sandefjord
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Sandefjord?
From 10 meetings on record, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 6, Sandefjord have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sarpsborg 08 FF and Sandefjord last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Sandefjord 0-2 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Who has won more matches between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Sandefjord?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sarpsborg 08 FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Sandefjord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sarpsborg 08 FF 65%, Sandefjord 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 70% for Sandefjord. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sandefjord in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sarpsborg 08 FF home games / Sandefjord away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sarpsborg 08 FF play Sandefjord?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's games and 45% of Sandefjord's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Sandefjord usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's matches and 70% of Sandefjord's.
Do Sarpsborg 08 FF and Sandefjord tend to score early?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Sandefjord in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sarpsborg 08 FF run riot with a 6-1 hammering of Sandefjord.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sarpsborg 08 FF beat Sandefjord 6-1 at Sarpsborg Stadion, Regular Season - 12, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.83 xG and Sandefjord 1.04 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 6-1 for 7 actual goals. Sarpsborg 08 FF beat their projection by 4.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.90 / defence 1.11 against Sandefjord attack 0.74 / defence 1.18, drawn from 41/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sarpsborg 08 FF 56% | Draw 24% | Sandefjord 21%, with Sarpsborg 08 FF to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 71% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sarpsborg 08 FF 63%, Sandefjord 78%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Sandefjord's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sarpsborg 08 FF arrived the stronger side — 1.44 PPG against 0.80. Form held, and they took the win. Sarpsborg 08 FF (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.65 average — above their attacking norm. Sandefjord (home/away splits) shipped 6 against a 2.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.