Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Mjondalen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Sarpsborg 08 FF take on Mjondalen.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sarpsborg 08 FF host Mjondalen at Sarpsborg Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 24 June 2021 at 01:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Sarpsborg 08 FF — All Games: 0W 5D 5L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: D D D D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's home record at Sarpsborg Stadion: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Sarpsborg Stadion. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Sarpsborg 08 FF are significantly better at Sarpsborg Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Mjondalen stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Mjondalen's away record: 1W 1D 8L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Mjondalen — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Sarpsborg 08 FF, 1 for Mjondalen and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 19 Sep 2020, ended 2–0 with Sarpsborg 08 FF winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Sarpsborg 08 FF trading profile (30 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Mjondalen trading profile (30 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sarpsborg 08 FF 43% versus Mjondalen 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sarpsborg 08 FF 47% | Mjondalen 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sarpsborg 08 FF 0.80 xG and Mjondalen 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.573 / defence 0.782 | Mjondalen attack 0.960 / defence 0.847. League average goals — home 1.645 / away 1.229. Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack strength of 0.573 is below the league average — the 0.80 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence rating of 0.782 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 37 Sarpsborg 08 FF games / 36 Mjondalen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 28% | Draw 37% | Mjondalen 35%. Fair-value odds: Sarpsborg 08 FF 3.57 | Draw 2.70 | Mjondalen 2.86. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.72. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.72 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Sarpsborg 08 FF's lower xG of 0.80 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 28% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.72 combined xG gives a 25% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 35% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sarpsborg 08 FF 40% | Mjondalen 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Mjondalen | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Sarpsborg Stadion • Kick-off: Thursday 24 Jun 2021, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 28% | Draw 37% | Mjondalen 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 25% | BTTS 35% | xG Sarpsborg 08 FF 0.80 / Mjondalen 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.573 / def 0.782 | Mjondalen attack 0.960 / def 0.847 | league avg home 1.645 / away 1.229 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.80
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Mjondalen xG
35%
BTTS
53%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Mjondalen kick off?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Mjondalen kicked off at 01:00 on Thursday 24 June 2021 at Sarpsborg Stadion.
Where is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Mjondalen being played?
The match is being played at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What competition is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Mjondalen part of?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Mjondalen is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Mjondalen?
Our statistical model gives Sarpsborg 08 FF a 28% chance of winning, Mjondalen a 35% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Mjondalen?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Sarpsborg 08 FF and Mjondalen will score (BTTS).
Will Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Mjondalen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 25%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Mjondalen?
Record (2 meetings): Sarpsborg 08 FF 1W | Draws 0 | Mjondalen 1W.
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Mjondalen in?
Sarpsborg 08 FF (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-D-D-L. Mjondalen (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack rating (0.57) and Mjondalen's defence rating (0.85), the model arrives at 0.80 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Mjondalen's attack versus Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 19.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 0-1 (14.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
28%
3.56
37%
2.71
35%
2.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
17.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
16.5%
Away win
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.80
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Total xG
1.72
0.92
Mjondalen xG
3.56
28%
Home win
2.71
37%
Draw
2.86
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
51%
Over 1.5
1.96
49%
Under 1.5
2.04
25%
Over 2.5
4.00
75%
Under 2.5
1.33
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.88
65%
BTTS No
1.53
Clean Sheet
40%
2.51
45%
2.22
Win to Nil
11%
8.94
16%
6.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.9 | 16.5 | 7.6 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.3 | 13.2 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Mjondalen?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.6%.
How many goals are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Mjondalen expected to score?
The model projects 0.80 expected goals for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 0.92 for Mjondalen, a combined total of 1.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Mjondalen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 30 outings, Sarpsborg 08 FF have picked up 1.07 PPG on a 8W 8D 14L record — D-D-D-D-L across the most recent five.
Mjondalen's form line: 9W 2D 19L from 30 games, 0.97 PPG, last five D-W-L-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sarpsborg 08 FF on 1.07 PPG, Mjondalen on 0.97. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Sarpsborg 08 FF have posted 1.50 PPG from 14 outings (6W 3D 5L). That's noticeably better than their 1.07 PPG overall — Sarpsborg 08 FF are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Mjondalen have gone 2W 2D 10L from 14 away games — 0.57 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.97 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Mjondalen's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sarpsborg 08 FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sarpsborg 08 FF are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Mjondalen are on 0.97 scored and 1.57 conceded.
Last 30 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Current Season
Mjondalen
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Mjondalen in coming into this match?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 8W 8D 14L in their last 30 games (1.07 PPG), while Mjondalen have gone 9W 2D 19L in their last 30 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home or Mjondalen away?
Sarpsborg 08 FF's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home: 1.50 PPG; Mjondalen away: 0.57 PPG.
Have Sarpsborg 08 FF or Mjondalen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Mjondalen in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 November 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Sarpsborg 08 FF's record when hosting Mjondalen specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Sarpsborg 08 FF
1
Draws
1
Mjondalen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Mjondalen?
From 4 meetings on record, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 2, Mjondalen have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sarpsborg 08 FF and Mjondalen last play each other?
They last met on 28 November 2021, when Mjondalen 1-3 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Who has won more matches between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Mjondalen?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sarpsborg 08 FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Mjondalen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sarpsborg 08 FF 36%, Mjondalen 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Sarpsborg 08 FF) and 43% (Mjondalen).
On the defensive side: Sarpsborg 08 FF keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Sarpsborg 08 FF have failed to score in 29% of games; Mjondalen in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sarpsborg 08 FF home games / Mjondalen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sarpsborg 08 FF play Mjondalen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's recent matches and 50% of Mjondalen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Mjondalen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's recent games and 43% of Mjondalen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sarpsborg 08 FF and Mjondalen tend to score early?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Mjondalen in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Sarpsborg 08 FF's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sarpsborg 08 FF and Mjondalen finished level at 0-0 at Sarpsborg Stadion, Regular Season - 12, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sarpsborg 08 FF 0.80 xG and Mjondalen 0.92 xG, a combined 1.72. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Mjondalen landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.57 / defence 0.78 against Mjondalen attack 0.96 / defence 0.85, drawn from 37/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sarpsborg 08 FF 28% | Draw 37% | Mjondalen 35%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 53% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sarpsborg 08 FF 47%, Mjondalen 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (30 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Mjondalen's trading profile (30 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.07 PPG, Mjondalen 0.97 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sarpsborg 08 FF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line. Mjondalen (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.