Sarpsborg 08 FF 1-1 Kristiansund BK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kristiansund BK at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Kristiansund BK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 27 as Sarpsborg 08 FF welcome Kristiansund BK to Sarpsborg Stadion. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 2 December 2020 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Sarpsborg 08 FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Sarpsborg Stadion, Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Sarpsborg Stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Sarpsborg 08 FF are significantly better at Sarpsborg Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Kristiansund BK — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D L D W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Kristiansund BK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kristiansund BK's away record: 4W 4D 2L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Sarpsborg 08 FF at 1.20 PPG versus Kristiansund BK's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Data
Sarpsborg 08 FF trading profile (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Kristiansund BK trading profile (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 85% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sarpsborg 08 FF 42% and Kristiansund BK 81% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sarpsborg 08 FF 50% | Kristiansund BK 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.20 xG and Kristiansund BK 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.880 / defence 1.053 | Kristiansund BK attack 0.953 / defence 0.984. League average goals — home 1.390 / away 1.369. Data: 26 Sarpsborg 08 FF games / 26 Kristiansund BK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 33% | Draw 27% | Kristiansund BK 41%. Fair-value odds: Sarpsborg 08 FF 3.03 | Draw 3.70 | Kristiansund BK 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Kristiansund BK are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kristiansund BK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.58 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sarpsborg 08 FF 30% | Kristiansund BK 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Kristiansund BK | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Sarpsborg Stadion • Kick-off: Wednesday 2 Dec 2020, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 33% | Draw 27% | Kristiansund BK 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.20 / Kristiansund BK 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.880 / def 1.053 | Kristiansund BK attack 0.953 / def 0.984 | league avg home 1.390 / away 1.369 • Poisson stance: Kristiansund BK (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Kristiansund BK xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Kristiansund BK kick off?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Kristiansund BK kicked off at 17:00 on Wednesday 2 December 2020 at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What was the final score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Kristiansund BK?
Sarpsborg 08 FF 1 - 1 Kristiansund BK.
Where is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Kristiansund BK being played?
The match is being played at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What competition is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Kristiansund BK part of?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Kristiansund BK is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Kristiansund BK?
Our statistical model gives Sarpsborg 08 FF a 33% chance of winning, Kristiansund BK a 41% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Kristiansund BK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Kristiansund BK?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Sarpsborg 08 FF and Kristiansund BK will score (BTTS).
Will Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Kristiansund BK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Kristiansund BK?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Kristiansund BK in?
Sarpsborg 08 FF (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. Kristiansund BK (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack at 0.88x the league average against Kristiansund BK's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.20 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Kristiansund BK's attack versus Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence, projects 1.37 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.2%), 0-1 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kristiansund BK Win
33%
3.07
27%
3.73
41%
2.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Total xG
2.58
1.37
Kristiansund BK xG
3.07
33%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
2.46
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
25%
3.95
30%
3.33
Win to Nil
8%
12.11
12%
8.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 10.4 | 7.2 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.6 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.6 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Kristiansund BK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Kristiansund BK expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 1.37 for Kristiansund BK, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Kristiansund BK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 26 outings, Sarpsborg 08 FF have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 8W 5D 13L record — L-D-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Sarpsborg 08 FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kristiansund BK's form line: 11W 10D 5L from 26 games, 1.65 PPG, last five D-L-D-W-W. The sample for Kristiansund BK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Kristiansund BK are the form team by 0.53 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Venue Form
On home soil, Sarpsborg 08 FF have posted 1.46 PPG from 13 outings (6W 1D 6L).
On the road, Kristiansund BK have gone 5W 6D 2L from 13 away games — 1.62 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Sarpsborg 08 FF are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Kristiansund BK are on 1.88 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kristiansund BK in 81%.
Last 26 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Blended
Kristiansund BK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Kristiansund BK in coming into this match?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 8W 5D 13L in their last 26 games (1.12 PPG), while Kristiansund BK have gone 11W 10D 5L in their last 26 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home or Kristiansund BK away?
Kristiansund BK's away record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home: 1.46 PPG; Kristiansund BK away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Sarpsborg 08 FF or Kristiansund BK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Kristiansund BK in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 18 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Sarpsborg 08 FF's record when hosting Kristiansund BK specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Sarpsborg 08 FF
4
Draws
4
Kristiansund BK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Kristiansund BK?
From 10 meetings on record, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 2, Kristiansund BK have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Sarpsborg 08 FF and Kristiansund BK last play each other?
They last met on 18 July 2026, when Kristiansund BK 0-0 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Who has won more matches between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Kristiansund BK?
Kristiansund BK have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sarpsborg 08 FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Kristiansund BK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 31% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sarpsborg 08 FF 31%, Kristiansund BK 85% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 54% for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 69% for Kristiansund BK. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sarpsborg 08 FF keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Sarpsborg 08 FF have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sarpsborg 08 FF home games / Kristiansund BK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sarpsborg 08 FF play Kristiansund BK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 31% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's games and 85% of Kristiansund BK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Kristiansund BK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's matches and 69% of Kristiansund BK's.
Do Sarpsborg 08 FF and Kristiansund BK tend to score early?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Kristiansund BK in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sarpsborg 08 FF and Kristiansund BK share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Sarpsborg Stadion, Regular Season - 27, as Sarpsborg 08 FF and Kristiansund BK drew 1-1 in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.20 xG and Kristiansund BK 1.37 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.88 / defence 1.05 against Kristiansund BK attack 0.95 / defence 0.98, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sarpsborg 08 FF 33% | Draw 27% | Kristiansund BK 41%, with Kristiansund BK to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sarpsborg 08 FF 50%, Kristiansund BK 69%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Kristiansund BK's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 81% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Kristiansund BK arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 1.12. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.