Sandefjord 0-0 Stromsgodset – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stromsgodset at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sandefjord vs Stromsgodset fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Stromsgodset make the trip to Sandefjord Arena to face Sandefjord in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Sunday 20 September 2020 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Sandefjord (all games): 5W 0D 5L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sandefjord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sandefjord have posted 3W 1D 4L at Sandefjord Arena — 1.25 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game.
Stromsgodset's overall Eliteserien record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L W L D D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.30. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Stromsgodset, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stromsgodset away from home this season: 2W 2D 4L from 8 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.38 goals scored and 2.12 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Sandefjord, 1.10 for Stromsgodset — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading & In-Play
Sandefjord — key trading statistics (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Stromsgodset — key trading statistics (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sandefjord 53% versus Stromsgodset 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sandefjord 59% | Stromsgodset 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sandefjord 1.17 xG and Stromsgodset 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sandefjord attack 0.633 / defence 1.122 | Stromsgodset attack 0.902 / defence 1.293. League average goals — home 1.432 / away 1.440. Sandefjord's attack strength of 0.633 is below the league average — the 1.17 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Stromsgodset bring a strong defensive rating of 1.293 — this is suppressing Sandefjord's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 17 Sandefjord games / 17 Stromsgodset games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sandefjord 30% | Draw 26% | Stromsgodset 44%. Fair-value odds: Sandefjord 3.33 | Draw 3.85 | Stromsgodset 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Stromsgodset as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Stromsgodset if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.63 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Sandefjord 38% | Stromsgodset 62%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sandefjord vs Stromsgodset | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Sandefjord Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Sep 2020, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sandefjord 30% | Draw 26% | Stromsgodset 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Sandefjord 1.17 / Stromsgodset 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Sandefjord attack 0.633 / def 1.122 | Stromsgodset attack 0.902 / def 1.293 | league avg home 1.432 / away 1.440 • Poisson stance: Stromsgodset (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Sandefjord xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Stromsgodset xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sandefjord vs Stromsgodset kick off?
Sandefjord vs Stromsgodset kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 20 September 2020 at Sandefjord Arena.
What was the final score in Sandefjord vs Stromsgodset?
Sandefjord 0 - 0 Stromsgodset.
Where is Sandefjord vs Stromsgodset being played?
The match is being played at Sandefjord Arena.
What competition is Sandefjord vs Stromsgodset part of?
Sandefjord vs Stromsgodset is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sandefjord vs Stromsgodset?
Our statistical model gives Sandefjord a 30% chance of winning, Stromsgodset a 44% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Stromsgodset the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sandefjord vs Stromsgodset?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Sandefjord and Stromsgodset will score (BTTS).
Will Sandefjord vs Stromsgodset have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Stromsgodset?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sandefjord and Stromsgodset in?
Sandefjord (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-L-W. Stromsgodset (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Sandefjord's attack rating (0.63) and Stromsgodset's defence rating (1.29), the model arrives at 1.17 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Stromsgodset's attack (0.90x) against Sandefjord's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.46.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 0-1 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stromsgodset Win
30%
3.29
26%
3.86
44%
2.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Sandefjord xG
Total xG
2.63
1.46
Stromsgodset xG
3.29
30%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
2.29
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
23%
4.30
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
7%
14.12
14%
7.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 10.5 | 7.7 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.3 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.2 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sandefjord vs Stromsgodset?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Sandefjord and Stromsgodset expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Sandefjord and 1.46 for Stromsgodset, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Sandefjord vs Stromsgodset?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 17 outings, Sandefjord have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 6W 1D 10L record — W-L-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Sandefjord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Stromsgodset's form line: 5W 5D 7L from 17 games, 1.18 PPG, last five L-W-L-D-D. The sample for Stromsgodset is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.12 PPG for Sandefjord against 1.18 for Stromsgodset. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Sandefjord have posted 1.25 PPG from 8 outings (3W 1D 4L).
On the road, Stromsgodset have gone 2W 2D 4L from 8 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Sandefjord are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Stromsgodset are on 1.53 scored and 2.06 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Stromsgodset in 65%.
Last 17 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sandefjord
Blended
Stromsgodset
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sandefjord and Stromsgodset in coming into this match?
Sandefjord have gone 6W 1D 10L in their last 17 games (1.12 PPG), while Stromsgodset have gone 5W 5D 7L in their last 17 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sandefjord at home or Stromsgodset away?
Sandefjord's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sandefjord at home: 1.25 PPG; Stromsgodset away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 22 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Sandefjord have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sandefjord won 0-5 on 23 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sandefjord have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Stromsgodset — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Sandefjord
3
Draws
2
Stromsgodset
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Stromsgodset?
From 10 meetings on record, Sandefjord have won 5, Stromsgodset have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sandefjord and Stromsgodset last play each other?
They last met on 22 November 2025, when Stromsgodset 2-6 Sandefjord.
Who has won more matches between Sandefjord and Stromsgodset?
Sandefjord have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sandefjord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Stromsgodset are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sandefjord 38%, Stromsgodset 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Sandefjord) and 62% (Stromsgodset). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 12% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sandefjord have failed to score in 38% of games; Stromsgodset in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sandefjord home games / Stromsgodset away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sandefjord play Stromsgodset?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Sandefjord's recent matches and 62% of Stromsgodset's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sandefjord vs Stromsgodset usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Sandefjord's matches and 62% of Stromsgodset's.
Do Sandefjord and Stromsgodset tend to score early?
Sandefjord have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Stromsgodset in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Sandefjord's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Sandefjord Arena, Regular Season - 18, as Sandefjord and Stromsgodset drew 0-0 in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sandefjord 1.17 xG and Stromsgodset 1.46 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Sandefjord fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Stromsgodset landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sandefjord attack 0.63 / defence 1.12 against Stromsgodset attack 0.90 / defence 1.29, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sandefjord 30% | Draw 26% | Stromsgodset 44%, with Stromsgodset to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sandefjord 59%, Stromsgodset 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sandefjord's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Stromsgodset's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sandefjord 1.12 PPG, Stromsgodset 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sandefjord (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line. Stromsgodset (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.