Sandefjord 2-0 Rosenborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sandefjord at 63%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sandefjord vs Rosenborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 12 as Sandefjord welcome Rosenborg to Jotun Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 6 July 2025 at 13:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Sandefjord — All Games: 6W 0D 4L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: L W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Sandefjord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Jotun Arena, Sandefjord have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rosenborg stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Rosenborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rosenborg's form when playing away from home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 2.20 exceeds their overall 1.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.80 PPG (Sandefjord) versus 1.40 (Rosenborg). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The previous 7 encounters between these sides heavily favour Rosenborg, who boast 5 victories compared to 1 for Sandefjord.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.6 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 Sep 2024, ended 0–1 with Rosenborg winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Rosenborg have won 5 of 7 previous encounters, and at 3.6 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Sandefjord in-play and half-time data (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games).
Rosenborg in-play and half-time data (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sandefjord 61% versus Rosenborg 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sandefjord 66% | Rosenborg 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sandefjord 2.18 xG and Rosenborg 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sandefjord attack 1.358 / defence 0.812 | Rosenborg attack 0.938 / defence 1.077. League average goals — home 1.491 / away 1.344. Sandefjord carry an above-average attack strength of 1.358 — their λ of 2.18 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 41 Sandefjord games / 43 Rosenborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sandefjord 63% | Draw 20% | Rosenborg 16%. Fair-value odds: Sandefjord 1.59 | Draw 5.00 | Rosenborg 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Sandefjord (63%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.20. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.20 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
Rosenborg lead the H2H ledger, but Sandefjord carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sandefjord at 63% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.20 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Sandefjord 40% | Rosenborg 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sandefjord vs Rosenborg | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Jotun Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Jul 2025, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sandefjord 63% | Draw 20% | Rosenborg 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 57% | xG Sandefjord 2.18 / Rosenborg 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Sandefjord attack 1.358 / def 0.812 | Rosenborg attack 0.938 / def 1.077 | league avg home 1.491 / away 1.344 • Poisson stance: Sandefjord (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.18
Sandefjord xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Rosenborg xG
57%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sandefjord vs Rosenborg kick off?
Sandefjord vs Rosenborg kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 6 July 2025 at Jotun Arena.
What was the final score in Sandefjord vs Rosenborg?
Sandefjord 2 - 0 Rosenborg.
Where is Sandefjord vs Rosenborg being played?
The match is being played at Jotun Arena.
What competition is Sandefjord vs Rosenborg part of?
Sandefjord vs Rosenborg is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sandefjord vs Rosenborg?
Our statistical model gives Sandefjord a 63% chance of winning, Rosenborg a 16% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Sandefjord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sandefjord vs Rosenborg?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Sandefjord and Rosenborg will score (BTTS).
Will Sandefjord vs Rosenborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Rosenborg?
Record (7 meetings): Sandefjord 1W | Draws 1 | Rosenborg 5W.
What form are Sandefjord and Rosenborg in?
Sandefjord (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Rosenborg (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Sandefjord's attack at 1.36x the league average against Rosenborg's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 2.18 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Rosenborg's attack versus Sandefjord's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sandefjord Win
63%
1.58
20%
4.96
16%
6.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.6%
Home win
1 – 1
9.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.18
Sandefjord xG
Total xG
3.20
1.02
Rosenborg xG
1.58
63%
Home win
4.96
20%
Draw
6.08
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
11%
8.84
Win to Nil
23%
4.39
2%
53.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.9 | 9.1 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.0 | 7.2 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sandefjord vs Rosenborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are Sandefjord and Rosenborg expected to score?
The model projects 2.18 expected goals for Sandefjord and 1.02 for Rosenborg, a combined total of 3.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Sandefjord vs Rosenborg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sandefjord's recent record stands at 15W 7D 19L from 41 games, a 1.27 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Sandefjord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rosenborg, meanwhile, have gone 21W 10D 10L across 41 games — 1.78 PPG, with L-W-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for Rosenborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Rosenborg by 0.51 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sandefjord heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Sandefjord have managed 12W 2D 6L from 20 games — 1.90 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.27 PPG overall — Sandefjord are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Rosenborg's away record stands at 9W 4D 7L across 20 trips, a 1.55 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Sandefjord are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Rosenborg are on 1.59 scored and 1.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sandefjord have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Rosenborg in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sandefjord
Blended
Rosenborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sandefjord and Rosenborg in coming into this match?
Sandefjord have gone 15W 7D 19L in their last 41 games (1.27 PPG), while Rosenborg have gone 21W 10D 10L in their last 41 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sandefjord at home or Rosenborg away?
Sandefjord's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sandefjord at home: 1.90 PPG; Rosenborg away: 1.55 PPG.
Have Sandefjord or Rosenborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sandefjord have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Rosenborg in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Oct 2021, when Rosenborg won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sandefjord's record when hosting Rosenborg specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Sandefjord
3
Draws
5
Rosenborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Rosenborg?
From 10 meetings on record, Sandefjord have won 2, Rosenborg have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sandefjord and Rosenborg last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Sandefjord 0-0 Rosenborg.
Who has won more matches between Sandefjord and Rosenborg?
Rosenborg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sandefjord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sandefjord 55%, Rosenborg 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Sandefjord and 65% for Rosenborg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 55% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sandefjord home games / Rosenborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sandefjord play Rosenborg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Sandefjord's games and 55% of Rosenborg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sandefjord vs Rosenborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Sandefjord's matches and 65% of Rosenborg's.
Do Sandefjord and Rosenborg tend to score early?
Sandefjord have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Rosenborg in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sandefjord cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Rosenborg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sandefjord beat Rosenborg 2-0 at Jotun Arena, Regular Season - 12, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sandefjord 2.18 xG and Rosenborg 1.02 xG, a combined 3.20. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Rosenborg landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sandefjord attack 1.36 / defence 0.81 against Rosenborg attack 0.94 / defence 1.08, drawn from 41/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sandefjord 63% | Draw 20% | Rosenborg 16%, with Sandefjord to win its most likely call at 63%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sandefjord 66%, Rosenborg 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sandefjord's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Rosenborg's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Rosenborg arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.27. Form was overturned, with Sandefjord winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sandefjord (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. Rosenborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.65 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.