Sandefjord 2-2 Brann – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Sandefjord at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sandefjord vs Brann fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sandefjord host Brann at Release Arena in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 21 November 2021 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Sandefjord have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Sandefjord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sandefjord at Release Arena this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Release Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Sandefjord are significantly better at Release Arena than their overall form suggests.
Brann — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D L L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.70. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Brann, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Brann away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (Sandefjord) versus 1.10 (Brann). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Sandefjord, 1 for Brann and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 15 Aug 2021, ended 2–3 with Brann winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Sandefjord in-play and half-time data (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Brann in-play and half-time data (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 79% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sandefjord 48% versus Brann 71%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sandefjord 54% | Brann 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sandefjord 1.46 xG and Brann 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sandefjord attack 0.788 / defence 0.865 | Brann attack 0.997 / defence 1.054. League average goals — home 1.760 / away 1.235. Sandefjord's attack strength of 0.788 is below the league average — the 1.46 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 56 Sandefjord games / 56 Brann games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sandefjord 44% | Draw 32% | Brann 25%. Fair-value odds: Sandefjord 2.27 | Draw 3.12 | Brann 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sandefjord as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sandefjord offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.53 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Sandefjord 30% | Brann 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sandefjord vs Brann | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Release Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Nov 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sandefjord 44% | Draw 32% | Brann 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 53% | xG Sandefjord 1.46 / Brann 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Sandefjord attack 0.788 / def 0.865 | Brann attack 0.997 / def 1.054 | league avg home 1.760 / away 1.235 • Poisson stance: Sandefjord (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Sandefjord xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Brann xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sandefjord vs Brann kick off?
Sandefjord vs Brann kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 21 November 2021 at Release Arena.
What was the final score in Sandefjord vs Brann?
Sandefjord 2 - 2 Brann.
Where is Sandefjord vs Brann being played?
The match is being played at Release Arena.
What competition is Sandefjord vs Brann part of?
Sandefjord vs Brann is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sandefjord vs Brann?
Our statistical model gives Sandefjord a 44% chance of winning, Brann a 25% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Sandefjord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sandefjord vs Brann?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Sandefjord and Brann will score (BTTS).
Will Sandefjord vs Brann have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Brann?
Record (2 meetings): Sandefjord 0W | Draws 1 | Brann 1W.
What form are Sandefjord and Brann in?
Sandefjord (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. Brann (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Sandefjord's attack at 0.79x the league average against Brann's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.46 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Brann's attack versus Sandefjord's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.1%), 0-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sandefjord Win
44%
2.30
32%
3.16
25%
4.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Sandefjord xG
Total xG
2.53
1.06
Brann xG
2.30
44%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
4.03
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
34%
2.90
23%
4.31
Win to Nil
15%
6.66
6%
17.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 8.5 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 12.4 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.1 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sandefjord vs Brann?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Sandefjord and Brann expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Sandefjord and 1.06 for Brann, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Sandefjord vs Brann?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sandefjord come into this having played 56 games, going 17W 13D 26L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-L. The sample for Sandefjord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Brann sit at 1.02 PPG from 56 outings (13W 18D 25L), a run that reads D-D-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Brann is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sandefjord on 1.14 PPG, Brann on 1.02. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Sandefjord's home form reads 8W 11D 9L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.25 PPG return.
Away from home, Brann have taken 0.93 points per game from 28 outings (6W 8D 14L).
Goals in Recent Form
Sandefjord are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Brann are on 1.29 scored and 1.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Brann in 71%.
Last 56 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sandefjord
Blended
Brann
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sandefjord and Brann in coming into this match?
Sandefjord have gone 17W 13D 26L in their last 56 games (1.14 PPG), while Brann have gone 13W 18D 25L in their last 56 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sandefjord at home or Brann away?
Sandefjord's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sandefjord at home: 1.25 PPG; Brann away: 0.93 PPG.
Have Sandefjord or Brann been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sandefjord have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Brann in 9%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Sep 2025, when Brann won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sandefjord's record when hosting Brann specifically: 0W 4D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Sandefjord
5
Draws
4
Brann
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Brann?
From 10 meetings on record, Sandefjord have won 1, Brann have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Sandefjord and Brann last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Brann 0-1 Sandefjord.
Who has won more matches between Sandefjord and Brann?
Brann have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sandefjord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Brann are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sandefjord 39%, Brann 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Sandefjord) and 54% (Brann).
On the defensive side: Sandefjord keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Sandefjord have failed to score in 36% of games; Brann in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sandefjord home games / Brann away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sandefjord play Brann?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Sandefjord's recent matches and 61% of Brann's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sandefjord vs Brann usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Sandefjord's recent games and 54% of Brann's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sandefjord and Brann tend to score early?
Sandefjord have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Brann in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sandefjord and Brann share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sandefjord and Brann finished level at 2-2 at Release Arena, Regular Season - 27, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sandefjord 1.46 xG and Brann 1.06 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Brann outscored their 1.06 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sandefjord attack 0.79 / defence 0.86 against Brann attack 1.00 / defence 1.05, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sandefjord 44% | Draw 32% | Brann 25%, with Sandefjord to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sandefjord 54%, Brann 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sandefjord's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Brann's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sandefjord 1.14 PPG, Brann 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sandefjord (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm. Brann (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.