Sandefjord vs Brann – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sandefjord at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sandefjord vs Brann fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sandefjord host Brann at Sandefjord Arena in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 24 May 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Sandefjord have gone 2W 6D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W D D D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Sandefjord at Sandefjord Arena this season: 1W 6D 3L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Brann — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L D D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Brann away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Sandefjord) versus 1.30 (Brann). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Sandefjord, 0 for Brann and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 6.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 1 Nov 2020, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Sandefjord in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Brann in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sandefjord 47% and Brann 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sandefjord 50% | Brann 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sandefjord 1.63 xG and Brann 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sandefjord attack 0.746 / defence 1.169 | Brann attack 0.948 / defence 1.314. League average goals — home 1.663 / away 1.381. Sandefjord's attack strength of 0.746 is below the league average — the 1.63 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Brann bring a strong defensive rating of 1.314 — this is suppressing Sandefjord's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 31 Sandefjord games / 34 Brann games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Sandefjord 39% | Draw 27% | Brann 34%. Fair-value odds: Sandefjord 2.56 | Draw 3.70 | Brann 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.63 / 1.53) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sandefjord as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sandefjord offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.16 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sandefjord 50% | Brann 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sandefjord vs Brann | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Sandefjord Arena • Kick-off: Monday 24 May 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sandefjord 39% | Draw 27% | Brann 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 65% | xG Sandefjord 1.63 / Brann 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: Sandefjord attack 0.746 / def 1.169 | Brann attack 0.948 / def 1.314 | league avg home 1.663 / away 1.381 • Poisson stance: Sandefjord (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Sandefjord xG
Expected Goals
1.53
Brann xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sandefjord vs Brann kick off?
Sandefjord vs Brann kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 24 May 2021 at Sandefjord Arena.
Where is Sandefjord vs Brann being played?
The match is being played at Sandefjord Arena.
What competition is Sandefjord vs Brann part of?
Sandefjord vs Brann is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sandefjord vs Brann?
Our statistical model gives Sandefjord a 39% chance of winning, Brann a 34% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Sandefjord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sandefjord vs Brann?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Sandefjord and Brann will score (BTTS).
Will Sandefjord vs Brann have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Brann?
Record (1 meetings): Sandefjord 0W | Draws 1 | Brann 0W.
What form are Sandefjord and Brann in?
Sandefjord (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-D-D-D. Brann (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Sandefjord's attack at 0.75x the league average against Brann's defence at 1.31x — combine the two and it projects 1.63 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Brann's attack versus Sandefjord's defence, projects 1.53 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (31/34 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sandefjord Win
39%
2.58
27%
3.71
34%
2.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Sandefjord xG
Total xG
3.16
1.53
Brann xG
2.58
39%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
2.91
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.55
35%
BTTS No
2.83
Clean Sheet
22%
4.62
20%
5.11
Win to Nil
8%
11.93
7%
14.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 6.5 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 10.6 | 8.1 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.6 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.7 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sandefjord vs Brann?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Sandefjord and Brann expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Sandefjord and 1.53 for Brann, a combined total of 3.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Sandefjord vs Brann?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sandefjord come into this having played 30 games, going 9W 8D 13L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-D-D.
On the other side, Brann sit at 1.20 PPG from 30 outings (9W 9D 12L), a run that reads W-L-D-D-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sandefjord on 1.17 PPG, Brann on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Sandefjord's home form reads 3W 7D 5L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.07 PPG return.
Away from home, Brann have taken 1.27 points per game from 15 outings (5W 4D 6L).
Goals in Recent Form
Sandefjord are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Brann are on 1.33 scored and 1.63 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Brann in 73%.
Last 30 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sandefjord
Current Season
Brann
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sandefjord and Brann in coming into this match?
Sandefjord have gone 9W 8D 13L in their last 30 games (1.17 PPG), while Brann have gone 9W 9D 12L in their last 30 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sandefjord at home or Brann away?
Brann's away record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sandefjord at home: 1.07 PPG; Brann away: 1.27 PPG.
Have Sandefjord or Brann been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sandefjord have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Brann in 10%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Sep 2025, when Brann won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sandefjord's record when hosting Brann specifically: 0W 4D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Sandefjord
5
Draws
4
Brann
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Brann?
From 10 meetings on record, Sandefjord have won 1, Brann have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Sandefjord and Brann last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Brann 0-1 Sandefjord.
Who has won more matches between Sandefjord and Brann?
Brann have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sandefjord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Brann are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sandefjord 40%, Brann 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Sandefjord) and 53% (Brann).
On the defensive side: Sandefjord keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Sandefjord have failed to score in 47% of games; Brann in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sandefjord home games / Brann away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sandefjord play Brann?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Sandefjord's recent matches and 60% of Brann's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sandefjord vs Brann usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Sandefjord's recent games and 53% of Brann's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sandefjord and Brann tend to score early?
Sandefjord have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Brann in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Sandefjord's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Sandefjord Arena, Regular Season - 9, as Sandefjord and Brann drew 0-0 in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sandefjord 1.63 xG and Brann 1.53 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Sandefjord fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Brann landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sandefjord attack 0.75 / defence 1.17 against Brann attack 0.95 / defence 1.31, drawn from 31/34 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Sandefjord 39% | Draw 27% | Brann 34%, with Sandefjord to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sandefjord 50%, Brann 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sandefjord's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Brann's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sandefjord 1.17 PPG, Brann 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sandefjord (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.87 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Brann (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.