Rosenborg vs Viking – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rosenborg at 72%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rosenborg vs Viking fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Lerkendal Stadion plays host to Rosenborg versus Viking in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Thursday 24 June 2021 at 01:00 UTC.
Form
Rosenborg (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at Lerkendal Stadion, Rosenborg have gone 8W 1D 1L this season (10 games, 2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Rosenborg are significantly better at Lerkendal Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Viking have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W W D D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Viking's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Rosenborg, 1.50 for Viking — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Rosenborg have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Viking in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading Data
Rosenborg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games).
Viking goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rosenborg 53% versus Viking 60%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Rosenborg 63% | Viking 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rosenborg 3.09 xG and Viking 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rosenborg attack 1.288 / defence 1.134 | Viking attack 0.964 / defence 1.456. League average goals — home 1.645 / away 1.229. Rosenborg carry an above-average attack strength of 1.288 — their λ of 3.09 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Viking bring a strong defensive rating of 1.456 — this is suppressing Rosenborg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 39 Rosenborg games / 38 Viking games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rosenborg 72% | Draw 16% | Viking 13%. Fair-value odds: Rosenborg 1.39 | Draw 6.25 | Viking 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Rosenborg (72%) — a 59pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 82% | BTTS probability 71% | Total xG 4.43. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 82% — a total xG of 4.43 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% reflects that both xG figures (3.09 / 1.34) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Rosenborg as the most likely outcome at 72% — clear model lean.
Poisson projects 4.43 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 82% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 71% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Rosenborg 70% | Viking 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rosenborg vs Viking | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Lerkendal Stadion • Kick-off: Thursday 24 Jun 2021, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rosenborg 72% | Draw 16% | Viking 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 82% | BTTS 71% | xG Rosenborg 3.09 / Viking 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Rosenborg attack 1.288 / def 1.134 | Viking attack 0.964 / def 1.456 | league avg home 1.645 / away 1.229 • Poisson stance: Rosenborg (72%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
3.09
Rosenborg xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Viking xG
71%
BTTS
94%
Over 1.5
82%
Over 2.5
65%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rosenborg vs Viking kick off?
Rosenborg vs Viking kicked off at 01:00 on Thursday 24 June 2021 at Lerkendal Stadion.
Where is Rosenborg vs Viking being played?
The match is being played at Lerkendal Stadion.
What competition is Rosenborg vs Viking part of?
Rosenborg vs Viking is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Rosenborg vs Viking?
Our statistical model gives Rosenborg a 72% chance of winning, Viking a 13% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making Rosenborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rosenborg vs Viking?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both Rosenborg and Viking will score (BTTS).
Will Rosenborg vs Viking have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 82%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Viking?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Rosenborg and Viking in?
Rosenborg (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-W-D. Viking (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Rosenborg's attacking strength (1.29x league average) is weighed against Viking's defensive record (1.46x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 3.09. Flip it around — Viking's attack (0.96x) against Rosenborg's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from 39/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 3-1, at 7.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (7.6%), 4-1 (6.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 22% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Rosenborg Win
72%
1.40
16%
6.44
13%
7.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
3 – 1
7.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
7.6%
Home win
4 – 1
6.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
3.09
Rosenborg xG
Total xG
4.43
1.34
Viking xG
1.40
72%
Home win
6.44
16%
Draw
7.75
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
94%
Over 1.5
1.06
6%
Under 1.5
16.67
82%
Over 2.5
1.22
18%
Under 2.5
5.56
65%
Over 3.5
1.54
35%
Under 3.5
2.86
45%
Over 4.5
2.22
55%
Under 4.5
1.82
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.41
29%
BTTS No
3.47
Clean Sheet
26%
3.84
5%
21.89
Win to Nil
19%
5.36
1%
169.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 3.7 | 4.9 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.6 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 7.8 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 4.5 | 6.0 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 2.8 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rosenborg vs Viking?
Our Poisson model rates 3-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.8%.
How many goals are Rosenborg and Viking expected to score?
The model projects 3.09 expected goals for Rosenborg and 1.34 for Viking, a combined total of 4.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Rosenborg vs Viking?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 72%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Rosenborg come into this having played 30 games, going 15W 7D 8L for 1.73 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-D.
On the other side, Viking sit at 1.47 PPG from 30 outings (12W 8D 10L), a run that reads W-W-D-D-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.73 PPG for Rosenborg against 1.47 for Viking. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Rosenborg's home form reads 10W 3D 2L across 15 games on their own ground, a 2.20 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.73 PPG overall — Rosenborg are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Viking have taken 1.27 points per game from 15 outings (5W 4D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rosenborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Rosenborg are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Viking are on 1.80 scored and 1.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Viking in 60%.
Last 30 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rosenborg
Current Season
Viking
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rosenborg and Viking in coming into this match?
Rosenborg have gone 15W 7D 8L in their last 30 games (1.73 PPG), while Viking have gone 12W 8D 10L in their last 30 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rosenborg at home or Viking away?
Rosenborg's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rosenborg at home: 2.20 PPG; Viking away: 1.27 PPG.
Have Rosenborg or Viking been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rosenborg have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Viking in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 1 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Viking go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Rosenborg won 1-5 on 3 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rosenborg have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Viking — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Rosenborg
2
Draws
4
Viking
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Viking?
From 10 meetings on record, Rosenborg have won 4, Viking have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Rosenborg and Viking last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2026, when Viking 3-0 Rosenborg.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Viking are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rosenborg 67%, Viking 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Rosenborg and 73% for Viking. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rosenborg keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Viking in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rosenborg home games / Viking away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rosenborg play Viking?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Rosenborg's games and 53% of Viking's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rosenborg vs Viking usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Rosenborg's matches and 73% of Viking's.
Do Rosenborg and Viking tend to score early?
Rosenborg have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Viking in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Rosenborg's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rosenborg and Viking finished level at 0-0 at Lerkendal Stadion, Regular Season - 12, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rosenborg 3.09 xG and Viking 1.34 xG, a combined 4.43. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Rosenborg fell 3.1 short of their projected output. Viking landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rosenborg attack 1.29 / defence 1.13 against Viking attack 0.96 / defence 1.46, drawn from 39/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rosenborg 72% | Draw 16% | Viking 13%, with Rosenborg to win its most likely call at 72%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 82%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 94% and missed. Over 3.5 was 65% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rosenborg 63%, Viking 73%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rosenborg's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Viking's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rosenborg 1.73 PPG, Viking 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Rosenborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.27 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. Viking (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.