Rosenborg 2-1 Sarpsborg 08 FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Sarpsborg 08 FF (43%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Rosenborg face Sarpsborg 08 FF.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sarpsborg 08 FF make the trip to Lerkendal Stadion to face Rosenborg in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 4. The match kicks off on Sunday 12 April 2026 at 12:30 UTC.
Form
Rosenborg (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Rosenborg's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Lerkendal Stadion this term (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Rosenborg are significantly better at Lerkendal Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's overall Eliteserien record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W L L W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Sarpsborg 08 FF away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Sarpsborg 08 FF are 0.70 PPG clear of Rosenborg in recent Eliteserien fixtures (1.60 vs 0.90). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Rosenborg have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Sarpsborg 08 FF in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 9 meetings, Sarpsborg 08 FF have the stronger historical record — 5 wins to Rosenborg's 1, with 3 draws in the mix.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.1 per game across 9 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 5 Oct 2025, ended 2–3 with Sarpsborg 08 FF winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 5 of 9 previous encounters, and at 4.1 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Rosenborg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Sarpsborg 08 FF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Rosenborg 55% and Sarpsborg 08 FF 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rosenborg 57% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rosenborg 1.32 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rosenborg attack 0.912 / defence 1.005 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.111 / defence 0.863. League average goals — home 1.674 / away 1.390. Data: 33 Rosenborg games / 32 Sarpsborg 08 FF games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Rosenborg 32% | Draw 25% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 43%. Fair-value odds: Rosenborg 3.12 | Draw 4.00 | Sarpsborg 08 FF 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sarpsborg 08 FF as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sarpsborg 08 FF if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.87 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.1 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Rosenborg 70% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (32 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rosenborg vs Sarpsborg 08 FF | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Lerkendal Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Apr 2026, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rosenborg 32% | Draw 25% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Rosenborg 1.32 / Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Rosenborg attack 0.912 / def 1.005 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.111 / def 0.863 | league avg home 1.674 / away 1.390 • Poisson stance: Sarpsborg 08 FF (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Rosenborg xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rosenborg vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kick off?
Rosenborg vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 12 April 2026 at Lerkendal Stadion.
What was the final score in Rosenborg vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Rosenborg 2 - 1 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Where is Rosenborg vs Sarpsborg 08 FF being played?
The match is being played at Lerkendal Stadion.
What competition is Rosenborg vs Sarpsborg 08 FF part of?
Rosenborg vs Sarpsborg 08 FF is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Rosenborg vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our statistical model gives Rosenborg a 32% chance of winning, Sarpsborg 08 FF a 43% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Sarpsborg 08 FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rosenborg vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Rosenborg and Sarpsborg 08 FF will score (BTTS).
Will Rosenborg vs Sarpsborg 08 FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Record (9 meetings): Rosenborg 1W | Draws 3 | Sarpsborg 08 FF 5W.
What form are Rosenborg and Sarpsborg 08 FF in?
Rosenborg (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-W-L-W. Sarpsborg 08 FF (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Rosenborg's attack rating (0.91) and Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 1.32 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack (1.11x) against Rosenborg's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.55.
The sample (33/32 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sarpsborg 08 FF Win
32%
3.09
25%
4.04
43%
2.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Rosenborg xG
Total xG
2.87
1.55
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
3.09
32%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
2.33
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
21%
4.72
27%
3.74
Win to Nil
7%
14.57
11%
8.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 8.8 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.6 | 9.0 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.6 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.4 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rosenborg vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Rosenborg and Sarpsborg 08 FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Rosenborg and 1.55 for Sarpsborg 08 FF, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Rosenborg vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 60 outings, Rosenborg have picked up 1.58 PPG on a 27W 14D 19L record — D-L-W-L-W across the most recent five.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's form line: 21W 15D 24L from 60 games, 1.30 PPG, last five W-L-L-W-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.58 PPG for Rosenborg against 1.30 for Sarpsborg 08 FF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Rosenborg have posted 1.97 PPG from 30 outings (17W 8D 5L).
On the road, Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 12W 8D 10L from 30 away games — 1.47 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rosenborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Rosenborg are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Sarpsborg 08 FF are on 1.52 scored and 1.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sarpsborg 08 FF in 67%.
Last 60 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rosenborg
Current Season
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rosenborg and Sarpsborg 08 FF in coming into this match?
Rosenborg have gone 27W 14D 19L in their last 60 games (1.58 PPG), while Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 21W 15D 24L in their last 60 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rosenborg at home or Sarpsborg 08 FF away?
Rosenborg's home record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rosenborg at home: 1.97 PPG; Sarpsborg 08 FF away: 1.47 PPG.
Have Rosenborg or Sarpsborg 08 FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rosenborg have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Sarpsborg 08 FF in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sarpsborg 08 FF won 0-3 on 25 Jun 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rosenborg have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sarpsborg 08 FF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Rosenborg
3
Draws
5
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
From 10 meetings on record, Rosenborg have won 2, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Rosenborg and Sarpsborg 08 FF last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Rosenborg 2-1 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Who has won more matches between Rosenborg and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Sarpsborg 08 FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rosenborg 57%, Sarpsborg 08 FF 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 47% for Rosenborg and 73% for Sarpsborg 08 FF. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rosenborg keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rosenborg home games / Sarpsborg 08 FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rosenborg play Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Rosenborg's games and 67% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rosenborg vs Sarpsborg 08 FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Rosenborg's matches and 73% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's.
Do Rosenborg and Sarpsborg 08 FF tend to score early?
Rosenborg have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Sarpsborg 08 FF in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Rosenborg defy the odds to beat Sarpsborg 08 FF 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rosenborg beat Sarpsborg 08 FF 2-1 at Lerkendal Stadion, Regular Season - 4, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rosenborg 1.32 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.55 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rosenborg attack 0.91 / defence 1.00 against Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.11 / defence 0.86, drawn from 33/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Rosenborg 32% | Draw 25% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 43%, with Sarpsborg 08 FF to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Rosenborg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rosenborg 57%, Sarpsborg 08 FF 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rosenborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rosenborg 1.58 PPG, Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rosenborg win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.