Rosenborg 3-0 Sandefjord – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rosenborg at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rosenborg vs Sandefjord fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Rosenborg host Sandefjord at Lerkendal Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 16 May 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Rosenborg — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: D L D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Rosenborg at Lerkendal Stadion this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Rosenborg are significantly better at Lerkendal Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Sandefjord have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Sandefjord have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Rosenborg at 1.10 PPG versus Sandefjord's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Rosenborg register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Sandefjord in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Rosenborg have won 1, Sandefjord 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 24 Oct 2021, ended 4–1 with Rosenborg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Rosenborg in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
Sandefjord in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rosenborg 62% versus Sandefjord 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rosenborg 68% | Sandefjord 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rosenborg 1.37 xG and Sandefjord 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rosenborg attack 0.879 / defence 0.812 | Sandefjord attack 1.350 / defence 1.008. League average goals — home 1.549 / away 1.163. Sandefjord have an above-average attack strength of 1.350 — the away xG of 1.27 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 35 Rosenborg games / 35 Sandefjord games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rosenborg 39% | Draw 26% | Sandefjord 35%. Fair-value odds: Rosenborg 2.56 | Draw 3.85 | Sandefjord 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rosenborg are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rosenborg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.65 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.4 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Rosenborg 60% | Sandefjord 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rosenborg vs Sandefjord | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Lerkendal Stadion • Kick-off: Monday 16 May 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rosenborg 39% | Draw 26% | Sandefjord 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG Rosenborg 1.37 / Sandefjord 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Rosenborg attack 0.879 / def 0.812 | Sandefjord attack 1.350 / def 1.008 | league avg home 1.549 / away 1.163 • Poisson stance: Rosenborg (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Rosenborg xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Sandefjord xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rosenborg vs Sandefjord kick off?
Rosenborg vs Sandefjord kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 16 May 2022 at Lerkendal Stadion.
What was the final score in Rosenborg vs Sandefjord?
Rosenborg 3 - 0 Sandefjord.
Where is Rosenborg vs Sandefjord being played?
The match is being played at Lerkendal Stadion.
What competition is Rosenborg vs Sandefjord part of?
Rosenborg vs Sandefjord is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Rosenborg vs Sandefjord?
Our statistical model gives Rosenborg a 39% chance of winning, Sandefjord a 35% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Rosenborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rosenborg vs Sandefjord?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Rosenborg and Sandefjord will score (BTTS).
Will Rosenborg vs Sandefjord have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Sandefjord?
Record (1 meetings): Rosenborg 1W | Draws 0 | Sandefjord 0W.
What form are Rosenborg and Sandefjord in?
Rosenborg (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-D-W-D. Sandefjord (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Rosenborg's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Sandefjord's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.37. The same calculation in reverse, Sandefjord's attack versus Rosenborg's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rosenborg Win
39%
2.55
26%
3.83
35%
2.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Rosenborg xG
Total xG
2.65
1.27
Sandefjord xG
2.55
39%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
2.88
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
28%
3.58
25%
3.94
Win to Nil
11%
9.13
9%
11.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 9.0 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.4 | 7.9 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.5 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.9 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rosenborg vs Sandefjord?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Rosenborg and Sandefjord expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Rosenborg and 1.27 for Sandefjord, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Rosenborg vs Sandefjord?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Rosenborg's recent record stands at 28W 16D 16L from 60 games, a 1.67 PPG return, with D-L-D-W-D in the last five.
Sandefjord, meanwhile, have gone 19W 14D 27L across 60 games — 1.18 PPG, with L-D-W-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Rosenborg by 0.49 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sandefjord heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Rosenborg have managed 18W 7D 5L from 30 games — 2.03 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sandefjord's away record stands at 10W 2D 18L across 30 trips, a 1.07 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rosenborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Rosenborg are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Sandefjord are on 1.15 scored and 1.58 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rosenborg have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rosenborg
Current Season
Sandefjord
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rosenborg and Sandefjord in coming into this match?
Rosenborg have gone 28W 16D 16L in their last 60 games (1.67 PPG), while Sandefjord have gone 19W 14D 27L in their last 60 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rosenborg at home or Sandefjord away?
Rosenborg's home record (2.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rosenborg at home: 2.03 PPG; Sandefjord away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Rosenborg and Sandefjord runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Oct 2021, when Rosenborg won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Rosenborg's record when hosting Sandefjord specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Rosenborg
3
Draws
2
Sandefjord
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Sandefjord?
From 10 meetings on record, Rosenborg have won 5, Sandefjord have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Rosenborg and Sandefjord last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Sandefjord 0-0 Rosenborg.
Who has won more matches between Rosenborg and Sandefjord?
Rosenborg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Sandefjord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rosenborg 63%, Sandefjord 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Rosenborg and 60% for Sandefjord. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rosenborg keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Sandefjord in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rosenborg home games / Sandefjord away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rosenborg play Sandefjord?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Rosenborg's games and 57% of Sandefjord's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rosenborg vs Sandefjord usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Rosenborg's matches and 60% of Sandefjord's.
Do Rosenborg and Sandefjord tend to score early?
Rosenborg have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Sandefjord in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Rosenborg run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Sandefjord.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rosenborg beat Sandefjord 3-0 at Lerkendal Stadion, Regular Season - 6, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rosenborg 1.37 xG and Sandefjord 1.27 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Rosenborg beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sandefjord landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rosenborg attack 0.88 / defence 0.81 against Sandefjord attack 1.35 / defence 1.01, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rosenborg 39% | Draw 26% | Sandefjord 35%, with Rosenborg to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rosenborg 68%, Sandefjord 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rosenborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Sandefjord's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Rosenborg arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.18. Form held, and they took the win. Rosenborg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Sandefjord (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.