Rosenborg 2-3 Brann – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Rosenborg at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rosenborg vs Brann encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Rosenborg and Brann meet at Lerkendal Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 25. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 24 November 2020 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Rosenborg have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: W D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Rosenborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Lerkendal Stadion, Rosenborg have gone 8W 2D 0L this season (10 games, 2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.10 — Rosenborg are significantly better at Lerkendal Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Brann's overall Eliteserien record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L L D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Brann, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Brann have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.40 in Rosenborg's favour (2.10 vs 0.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading Data
Rosenborg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games).
Brann goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Rosenborg 54% and Brann 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rosenborg 67% | Brann 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rosenborg 2.32 xG and Brann 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rosenborg attack 1.184 / defence 0.998 | Brann attack 0.857 / defence 1.429. League average goals — home 1.369 / away 1.350. Brann bring a strong defensive rating of 1.429 — this is suppressing Rosenborg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 24 Rosenborg games / 24 Brann games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rosenborg 63% | Draw 19% | Brann 18%. Fair-value odds: Rosenborg 1.59 | Draw 5.26 | Brann 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Rosenborg (63%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.47. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.47 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.32 / 1.16) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Rosenborg as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.47 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 67% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Rosenborg 70% | Brann 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rosenborg vs Brann | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Lerkendal Stadion • Kick-off: Tuesday 24 Nov 2020, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rosenborg 63% | Draw 19% | Brann 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 62% | xG Rosenborg 2.32 / Brann 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Rosenborg attack 1.184 / def 0.998 | Brann attack 0.857 / def 1.429 | league avg home 1.369 / away 1.350 • Poisson stance: Rosenborg (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.32
Rosenborg xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Brann xG
62%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rosenborg vs Brann kick off?
Rosenborg vs Brann kicked off at 18:00 on Tuesday 24 November 2020 at Lerkendal Stadion.
What was the final score in Rosenborg vs Brann?
Rosenborg 2 - 3 Brann.
Where is Rosenborg vs Brann being played?
The match is being played at Lerkendal Stadion.
What competition is Rosenborg vs Brann part of?
Rosenborg vs Brann is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Rosenborg vs Brann?
Our statistical model gives Rosenborg a 63% chance of winning, Brann a 18% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Rosenborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rosenborg vs Brann?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Rosenborg and Brann will score (BTTS).
Will Rosenborg vs Brann have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Brann?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Rosenborg and Brann in?
Rosenborg (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-W-L. Brann (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Rosenborg's attack at 1.18x the league average against Brann's defence at 1.43x — combine the two and it projects 2.32 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Brann's attack (0.86x) against Rosenborg's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 24/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Rosenborg Win
63%
1.58
19%
5.17
18%
5.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.3%
Draw
2 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.32
Rosenborg xG
Total xG
3.47
1.16
Brann xG
1.58
63%
Home win
5.17
19%
Draw
5.71
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.63
Clean Sheet
32%
3.17
10%
10.14
Win to Nil
20%
5.03
2%
57.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 8.3 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.6 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 7.4 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.7 | 4.3 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rosenborg vs Brann?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are Rosenborg and Brann expected to score?
The model projects 2.32 expected goals for Rosenborg and 1.16 for Brann, a combined total of 3.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Rosenborg vs Brann?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Rosenborg come into this having played 24 games, going 13W 6D 5L for 1.88 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-L. The sample for Rosenborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Brann sit at 1.04 PPG from 24 outings (6W 7D 11L), a run that reads L-L-D-D-L across their last five. The sample for Brann is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rosenborg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.84 PPG clear of Brann — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Rosenborg's home form reads 8W 3D 1L across 12 games on their own ground, a 2.25 PPG return.
Away from home, Brann have taken 1.25 points per game from 12 outings (4W 3D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rosenborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Rosenborg are averaging 1.79 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Brann are on 1.25 scored and 1.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Brann in 71%.
Last 24 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rosenborg
Blended
Brann
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rosenborg and Brann in coming into this match?
Rosenborg have gone 13W 6D 5L in their last 24 games (1.88 PPG), while Brann have gone 6W 7D 11L in their last 24 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rosenborg at home or Brann away?
Rosenborg's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rosenborg at home: 2.25 PPG; Brann away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Rosenborg or Brann been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rosenborg have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Brann in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Brann won 3-0 on 4 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rosenborg have gone 1W 1D 4L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Brann — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Rosenborg
3
Draws
6
Brann
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Brann?
From 10 meetings on record, Rosenborg have won 1, Brann have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Rosenborg and Brann last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Rosenborg 1-1 Brann.
Who has won more matches between Rosenborg and Brann?
Brann have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Brann are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rosenborg 67%, Brann 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Rosenborg and 58% for Brann. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rosenborg keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rosenborg home games / Brann away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rosenborg play Brann?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Rosenborg's games and 58% of Brann's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rosenborg vs Brann usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Rosenborg's matches and 58% of Brann's.
Do Rosenborg and Brann tend to score early?
Rosenborg have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Brann in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Brann defy the odds to beat Rosenborg 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Brann beat Rosenborg 2-3 at Lerkendal Stadion, Regular Season - 25, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rosenborg 2.32 xG and Brann 1.16 xG, a combined 3.47. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Brann outscored their 1.16 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rosenborg attack 1.18 / defence 1.00 against Brann attack 0.86 / defence 1.43, drawn from 24/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rosenborg 63% | Draw 19% | Brann 18%, with Rosenborg to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a Brann win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rosenborg 67%, Brann 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rosenborg's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Brann's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Rosenborg arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.04. Form was overturned, with Brann winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Rosenborg (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Brann (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.