ODD Ballklubb 2-1 Viking – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates ODD Ballklubb at 39% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this ODD Ballklubb vs Viking encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees Viking travel to Skagerak Arena to take on ODD Ballklubb. The game is scheduled for Monday 18 April 2022, 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
ODD Ballklubb — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
ODD Ballklubb at Skagerak Arena this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Viking have recorded 8W 1D 1L from 10 outings — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Viking's away record: 6W 3D 1L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Viking are 1.80 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. ODD Ballklubb register both teams scoring in 90% of relevant matches, Viking in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for ODD Ballklubb, 1 for Viking and 0 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 5 Dec 2021, ended 1–3 with Viking winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
ODD Ballklubb in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
Viking in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 82% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — ODD Ballklubb 62% and Viking 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (ODD Ballklubb 65% | Viking 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects ODD Ballklubb 1.36 xG and Viking 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: ODD Ballklubb attack 1.117 / defence 1.023 | Viking attack 1.071 / defence 0.780. League average goals — home 1.564 / away 1.180. Viking's defence strength of 0.780 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 32 ODD Ballklubb games / 32 Viking games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 39% | Draw 26% | Viking 35%. Fair-value odds: ODD Ballklubb 2.56 | Draw 3.85 | Viking 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
ODD Ballklubb dominate the H2H record, yet Viking are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, ODD Ballklubb are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Viking (2.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on ODD Ballklubb offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.66 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.7 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.8 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: ODD Ballklubb 90% | Viking 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (32 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: ODD Ballklubb vs Viking | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Skagerak Arena • Kick-off: Monday 18 Apr 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 39% | Draw 26% | Viking 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG ODD Ballklubb 1.36 / Viking 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: ODD Ballklubb attack 1.117 / def 1.023 | Viking attack 1.071 / def 0.780 | league avg home 1.564 / away 1.180 • Poisson stance: ODD Ballklubb (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
ODD Ballklubb xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Viking xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does ODD Ballklubb vs Viking kick off?
ODD Ballklubb vs Viking kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 18 April 2022 at Skagerak Arena.
What was the final score in ODD Ballklubb vs Viking?
ODD Ballklubb 2 - 1 Viking.
Where is ODD Ballklubb vs Viking being played?
The match is being played at Skagerak Arena.
What competition is ODD Ballklubb vs Viking part of?
ODD Ballklubb vs Viking is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win ODD Ballklubb vs Viking?
Our statistical model gives ODD Ballklubb a 39% chance of winning, Viking a 35% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making ODD Ballklubb the favourite.
Will both teams score in ODD Ballklubb vs Viking?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both ODD Ballklubb and Viking will score (BTTS).
Will ODD Ballklubb vs Viking have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between ODD Ballklubb and Viking?
Record (4 meetings): ODD Ballklubb 3W | Draws 0 | Viking 1W.
What form are ODD Ballklubb and Viking in?
ODD Ballklubb (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-L-L-W. Viking (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates ODD Ballklubb's attack at 1.12x the league average against Viking's defence at 0.78x — combine the two and it projects 1.36 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Viking's attack versus ODD Ballklubb's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (32/32 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
ODD Ballklubb Win
39%
2.59
26%
3.84
35%
2.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
ODD Ballklubb xG
Total xG
2.66
1.29
Viking xG
2.59
39%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
2.83
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
27%
3.64
26%
3.91
Win to Nil
11%
9.44
9%
11.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 9.1 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.4 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.4 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.8 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for ODD Ballklubb vs Viking?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are ODD Ballklubb and Viking expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for ODD Ballklubb and 1.29 for Viking, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for ODD Ballklubb vs Viking?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
ODD Ballklubb's recent record stands at 21W 13D 26L from 60 games, a 1.27 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-W in the last five.
Viking, meanwhile, have gone 29W 14D 17L across 60 games — 1.68 PPG, with W-D-W-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Viking by 0.41 — a real, if not enormous, edge over ODD Ballklubb heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, ODD Ballklubb have managed 13W 6D 11L from 30 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Viking's away record stands at 13W 7D 10L across 30 trips, a 1.53 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
ODD Ballklubb are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.82 conceded per game recently; Viking are on 1.90 scored and 1.65 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: ODD Ballklubb have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Viking in 68%.
Last 60 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
ODD Ballklubb
Current Season
Viking
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are ODD Ballklubb and Viking in coming into this match?
ODD Ballklubb have gone 21W 13D 26L in their last 60 games (1.27 PPG), while Viking have gone 29W 14D 17L in their last 60 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — ODD Ballklubb at home or Viking away?
Viking's away record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — ODD Ballklubb at home: 1.50 PPG; Viking away: 1.53 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between ODD Ballklubb and Viking runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 October 2024, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Nov 2020, when ODD Ballklubb won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
ODD Ballklubb's record when hosting Viking specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
ODD Ballklubb
4
Draws
2
Viking
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between ODD Ballklubb and Viking?
From 10 meetings on record, ODD Ballklubb have won 4, Viking have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did ODD Ballklubb and Viking last play each other?
They last met on 20 October 2024, when Viking 3-3 ODD Ballklubb.
Who has won more matches between ODD Ballklubb and Viking?
ODD Ballklubb have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
ODD Ballklubb are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Viking are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — ODD Ballklubb at 73%, Viking at 57%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 77% for ODD Ballklubb and 70% for Viking. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 53% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = ODD Ballklubb home games / Viking away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when ODD Ballklubb play Viking?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of ODD Ballklubb's games and 57% of Viking's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is ODD Ballklubb vs Viking usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 77% of ODD Ballklubb's matches and 70% of Viking's.
Do ODD Ballklubb and Viking tend to score early?
ODD Ballklubb have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Viking in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as ODD Ballklubb edge out Viking 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
ODD Ballklubb beat Viking 2-1 at Skagerak Arena, Regular Season - 3, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting ODD Ballklubb 1.36 xG and Viking 1.29 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ODD Ballklubb attack 1.12 / defence 1.02 against Viking attack 1.07 / defence 0.78, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it ODD Ballklubb 39% | Draw 26% | Viking 35%, with ODD Ballklubb to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ODD Ballklubb 65%, Viking 73%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
ODD Ballklubb's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Viking's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Viking arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.27. Form was overturned, with ODD Ballklubb winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.