ODD Ballklubb 1-1 Viking – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Viking at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this ODD Ballklubb vs Viking encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Viking travel to Skagerak Arena to take on ODD Ballklubb. The game is scheduled for Saturday 7 October 2023, 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
ODD Ballklubb — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: L D W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for ODD Ballklubb, so this record blends games from this season and last.
ODD Ballklubb at Skagerak Arena this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Viking have recorded 8W 1D 1L from 10 outings — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W D W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Viking, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Viking's away record: 7W 1D 2L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (2.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Viking are 1.10 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 1.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 4 wins apiece for ODD Ballklubb, 2 for Viking and 1 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 3.6 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 16 May 2023, ended 2–3 with Viking winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
ODD Ballklubb in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Viking in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 61% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — ODD Ballklubb 51% and Viking 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (ODD Ballklubb 53% | Viking 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects ODD Ballklubb 1.37 xG and Viking 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: ODD Ballklubb attack 0.887 / defence 0.994 | Viking attack 1.129 / defence 0.856. League average goals — home 1.805 / away 1.281. Data: 53 ODD Ballklubb games / 53 Viking games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 35% | Draw 26% | Viking 38%. Fair-value odds: ODD Ballklubb 2.86 | Draw 3.85 | Viking 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
ODD Ballklubb dominate the H2H record, yet Viking are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, Viking are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Viking offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.81 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: ODD Ballklubb 40% | Viking 60%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: ODD Ballklubb vs Viking | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Skagerak Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Oct 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 35% | Draw 26% | Viking 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG ODD Ballklubb 1.37 / Viking 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: ODD Ballklubb attack 0.887 / def 0.994 | Viking attack 1.129 / def 0.856 | league avg home 1.805 / away 1.281 • Poisson stance: Viking (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
ODD Ballklubb xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Viking xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does ODD Ballklubb vs Viking kick off?
ODD Ballklubb vs Viking kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 7 October 2023 at Skagerak Arena.
What was the final score in ODD Ballklubb vs Viking?
ODD Ballklubb 1 - 1 Viking.
Where is ODD Ballklubb vs Viking being played?
The match is being played at Skagerak Arena.
What competition is ODD Ballklubb vs Viking part of?
ODD Ballklubb vs Viking is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win ODD Ballklubb vs Viking?
Our statistical model gives ODD Ballklubb a 35% chance of winning, Viking a 38% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Viking the favourite.
Will both teams score in ODD Ballklubb vs Viking?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both ODD Ballklubb and Viking will score (BTTS).
Will ODD Ballklubb vs Viking have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between ODD Ballklubb and Viking?
Record (7 meetings): ODD Ballklubb 4W | Draws 1 | Viking 2W.
What form are ODD Ballklubb and Viking in?
ODD Ballklubb (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-W-L-D. Viking (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates ODD Ballklubb's attack at 0.89x the league average against Viking's defence at 0.86x — combine the two and it projects 1.37 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Viking's attack versus ODD Ballklubb's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Viking Win
35%
2.82
26%
3.82
38%
2.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
ODD Ballklubb xG
Total xG
2.81
1.44
Viking xG
2.82
35%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
2.60
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
24%
4.21
25%
3.94
Win to Nil
8%
11.88
10%
10.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 8.7 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 11.9 | 8.5 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.1 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.7 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for ODD Ballklubb vs Viking?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are ODD Ballklubb and Viking expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for ODD Ballklubb and 1.44 for Viking, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for ODD Ballklubb vs Viking?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
ODD Ballklubb's recent record stands at 21W 12D 20L from 53 games, a 1.42 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for ODD Ballklubb is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Viking, meanwhile, have gone 25W 11D 17L across 53 games — 1.62 PPG, with W-D-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Viking is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: ODD Ballklubb on 1.42 PPG, Viking on 1.62. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, ODD Ballklubb have managed 13W 4D 9L from 26 games — 1.65 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Viking's away record stands at 11W 4D 11L across 26 trips, a 1.42 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
ODD Ballklubb are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Viking are on 1.85 scored and 1.64 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Viking in 70%.
Last 53 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
ODD Ballklubb
Blended
Viking
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are ODD Ballklubb and Viking in coming into this match?
ODD Ballklubb have gone 21W 12D 20L in their last 53 games (1.42 PPG), while Viking have gone 25W 11D 17L in their last 53 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — ODD Ballklubb at home or Viking away?
ODD Ballklubb's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — ODD Ballklubb at home: 1.65 PPG; Viking away: 1.42 PPG.
Have ODD Ballklubb or Viking been keeping clean sheets recently?
ODD Ballklubb have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Viking in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between ODD Ballklubb and Viking runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 October 2024, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Nov 2020, when ODD Ballklubb won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
ODD Ballklubb's record when hosting Viking specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
ODD Ballklubb
4
Draws
2
Viking
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between ODD Ballklubb and Viking?
From 10 meetings on record, ODD Ballklubb have won 4, Viking have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did ODD Ballklubb and Viking last play each other?
They last met on 20 October 2024, when Viking 3-3 ODD Ballklubb.
Who has won more matches between ODD Ballklubb and Viking?
ODD Ballklubb have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
ODD Ballklubb are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Viking are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — ODD Ballklubb 54%, Viking 73% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 54% for ODD Ballklubb and 69% for Viking. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = ODD Ballklubb home games / Viking away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when ODD Ballklubb play Viking?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of ODD Ballklubb's games and 73% of Viking's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is ODD Ballklubb vs Viking usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of ODD Ballklubb's matches and 69% of Viking's.
Do ODD Ballklubb and Viking tend to score early?
ODD Ballklubb have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Viking in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
ODD Ballklubb and Viking share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Skagerak Arena, Regular Season - 24, as ODD Ballklubb and Viking drew 1-1 in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting ODD Ballklubb 1.37 xG and Viking 1.44 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ODD Ballklubb attack 0.89 / defence 0.99 against Viking attack 1.13 / defence 0.86, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it ODD Ballklubb 35% | Draw 26% | Viking 38%, with Viking to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ODD Ballklubb 53%, Viking 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
ODD Ballklubb's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Viking's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — ODD Ballklubb 1.42 PPG, Viking 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Viking (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.92 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.