ODD Ballklubb 1-3 Stromsgodset – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates ODD Ballklubb at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this ODD Ballklubb vs Stromsgodset fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Stromsgodset make the trip to Skagerak Arena to face ODD Ballklubb in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 27. The match kicks off on Saturday 19 December 2020 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
ODD Ballklubb (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
ODD Ballklubb's home record at Skagerak Arena: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — ODD Ballklubb are significantly better at Skagerak Arena than their overall form suggests.
Stromsgodset have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: L L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Stromsgodset have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for ODD Ballklubb, 0.70 for Stromsgodset — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — ODD Ballklubb register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Stromsgodset in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — ODD Ballklubb lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 Jun 2020, ended 0–1 with Stromsgodset winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
ODD Ballklubb half-time and goal-timing data (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Stromsgodset half-time and goal-timing data (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — ODD Ballklubb 54% versus Stromsgodset 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (ODD Ballklubb 61% | Stromsgodset 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects ODD Ballklubb 1.75 xG and Stromsgodset 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: ODD Ballklubb attack 1.001 / defence 1.256 | Stromsgodset attack 0.888 / defence 1.276. League average goals — home 1.369 / away 1.375. Stromsgodset bring a strong defensive rating of 1.276 — this is suppressing ODD Ballklubb's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 28 ODD Ballklubb games / 28 Stromsgodset games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 42% | Draw 26% | Stromsgodset 33%. Fair-value odds: ODD Ballklubb 2.38 | Draw 3.85 | Stromsgodset 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.75 / 1.53) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is ODD Ballklubb at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on ODD Ballklubb if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.29 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates corroborate: ODD Ballklubb 70% | Stromsgodset 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: ODD Ballklubb vs Stromsgodset | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Skagerak Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Dec 2020, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 42% | Draw 26% | Stromsgodset 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 66% | xG ODD Ballklubb 1.75 / Stromsgodset 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: ODD Ballklubb attack 1.001 / def 1.256 | Stromsgodset attack 0.888 / def 1.276 | league avg home 1.369 / away 1.375 • Poisson stance: ODD Ballklubb (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
ODD Ballklubb xG
Expected Goals
1.53
Stromsgodset xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does ODD Ballklubb vs Stromsgodset kick off?
ODD Ballklubb vs Stromsgodset kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 19 December 2020 at Skagerak Arena.
What was the final score in ODD Ballklubb vs Stromsgodset?
ODD Ballklubb 1 - 3 Stromsgodset.
Where is ODD Ballklubb vs Stromsgodset being played?
The match is being played at Skagerak Arena.
What competition is ODD Ballklubb vs Stromsgodset part of?
ODD Ballklubb vs Stromsgodset is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win ODD Ballklubb vs Stromsgodset?
Our statistical model gives ODD Ballklubb a 42% chance of winning, Stromsgodset a 33% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making ODD Ballklubb the favourite.
Will both teams score in ODD Ballklubb vs Stromsgodset?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both ODD Ballklubb and Stromsgodset will score (BTTS).
Will ODD Ballklubb vs Stromsgodset have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between ODD Ballklubb and Stromsgodset?
Record (1 meetings): ODD Ballklubb 0W | Draws 0 | Stromsgodset 1W.
What form are ODD Ballklubb and Stromsgodset in?
ODD Ballklubb (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Stromsgodset (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates ODD Ballklubb's attack at 1.00x the league average against Stromsgodset's defence at 1.28x — combine the two and it projects 1.75 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Stromsgodset's attack (0.89x) against ODD Ballklubb's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 1.53.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
ODD Ballklubb Win
42%
2.40
26%
3.91
33%
3.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
ODD Ballklubb xG
Total xG
3.29
1.53
Stromsgodset xG
2.40
42%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
3.06
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.95
Clean Sheet
22%
4.64
17%
5.75
Win to Nil
9%
11.12
6%
17.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 5.7 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 10.1 | 7.7 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.8 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 5.1 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for ODD Ballklubb vs Stromsgodset?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are ODD Ballklubb and Stromsgodset expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for ODD Ballklubb and 1.53 for Stromsgodset, a combined total of 3.29.
How confident is the prediction model for ODD Ballklubb vs Stromsgodset?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
ODD Ballklubb's recent record stands at 13W 4D 11L from 28 games, a 1.54 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-L in the last five.
Stromsgodset, meanwhile, have gone 6W 10D 12L across 28 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-L-L-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours ODD Ballklubb by 0.54 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Stromsgodset heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, ODD Ballklubb have managed 8W 2D 4L from 14 games — 1.86 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Stromsgodset's away record stands at 3W 4D 7L across 14 trips, a 0.93 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, ODD Ballklubb come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
ODD Ballklubb are averaging 1.79 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Stromsgodset are on 1.36 scored and 1.86 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Stromsgodset in 64%.
Last 28 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
ODD Ballklubb
Current Season
Stromsgodset
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are ODD Ballklubb and Stromsgodset in coming into this match?
ODD Ballklubb have gone 13W 4D 11L in their last 28 games (1.54 PPG), while Stromsgodset have gone 6W 10D 12L in their last 28 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — ODD Ballklubb at home or Stromsgodset away?
ODD Ballklubb's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — ODD Ballklubb at home: 1.86 PPG; Stromsgodset away: 0.93 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since June 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 July 2024, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: ODD Ballklubb won 5-1 on 6 Nov 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, ODD Ballklubb have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Stromsgodset — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
ODD Ballklubb
3
Draws
5
Stromsgodset
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between ODD Ballklubb and Stromsgodset?
From 10 meetings on record, ODD Ballklubb have won 2, Stromsgodset have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did ODD Ballklubb and Stromsgodset last play each other?
They last met on 28 July 2024, when ODD Ballklubb 2-0 Stromsgodset.
Who has won more matches between ODD Ballklubb and Stromsgodset?
Stromsgodset have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
ODD Ballklubb are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Stromsgodset are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — ODD Ballklubb 64%, Stromsgodset 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for ODD Ballklubb and 71% for Stromsgodset. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Stromsgodset in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = ODD Ballklubb home games / Stromsgodset away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when ODD Ballklubb play Stromsgodset?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of ODD Ballklubb's games and 64% of Stromsgodset's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is ODD Ballklubb vs Stromsgodset usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of ODD Ballklubb's matches and 71% of Stromsgodset's.
Do ODD Ballklubb and Stromsgodset tend to score early?
ODD Ballklubb have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Stromsgodset in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stromsgodset cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over ODD Ballklubb.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stromsgodset beat ODD Ballklubb 1-3 at Skagerak Arena, Regular Season - 27, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting ODD Ballklubb 1.75 xG and Stromsgodset 1.53 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Stromsgodset outscored their 1.53 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ODD Ballklubb attack 1.00 / defence 1.26 against Stromsgodset attack 0.89 / defence 1.28, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it ODD Ballklubb 42% | Draw 26% | Stromsgodset 33%, with ODD Ballklubb to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Stromsgodset win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ODD Ballklubb 61%, Stromsgodset 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
ODD Ballklubb's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Stromsgodset's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, ODD Ballklubb arrived the stronger side — 1.54 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Stromsgodset winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. ODD Ballklubb (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.93 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.36 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Stromsgodset (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.36 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.