ODD Ballklubb vs Stabaek – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates ODD Ballklubb at 39% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this ODD Ballklubb vs Stabaek encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 26 as ODD Ballklubb welcome Stabaek to Skagerak Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 23 October 2021 at 01:00 UTC.
Form Guide
ODD Ballklubb — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: D L W L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for ODD Ballklubb, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Skagerak Arena, ODD Ballklubb have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — ODD Ballklubb are significantly better at Skagerak Arena than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Stabaek have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Stabaek, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Stabaek have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — ODD Ballklubb at 0.80 PPG versus Stabaek's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, ODD Ballklubb have won 2, Stabaek 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 May 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
ODD Ballklubb trading profile (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Stabaek trading profile (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — ODD Ballklubb 58% versus Stabaek 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (ODD Ballklubb 64% | Stabaek 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects ODD Ballklubb 1.96 xG and Stabaek 1.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: ODD Ballklubb attack 1.024 / defence 1.307 | Stabaek attack 1.147 / defence 1.078. League average goals — home 1.776 / away 1.250. Data: 52 ODD Ballklubb games / 52 Stabaek games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 39% | Draw 25% | Stabaek 36%. Fair-value odds: ODD Ballklubb 2.56 | Draw 4.00 | Stabaek 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS probability 74% | Total xG 3.83. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.83 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 74% reflects that both xG figures (1.96 / 1.87) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is ODD Ballklubb at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on ODD Ballklubb offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.83 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 74% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 74% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: ODD Ballklubb 70% | Stabaek 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: ODD Ballklubb vs Stabaek | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Skagerak Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Oct 2021, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 39% | Draw 25% | Stabaek 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% | BTTS 74% | xG ODD Ballklubb 1.96 / Stabaek 1.87 • Poisson strength factors: ODD Ballklubb attack 1.024 / def 1.307 | Stabaek attack 1.147 / def 1.078 | league avg home 1.776 / away 1.250 • Poisson stance: ODD Ballklubb (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.96
ODD Ballklubb xG
Expected Goals
1.87
Stabaek xG
74%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does ODD Ballklubb vs Stabaek kick off?
ODD Ballklubb vs Stabaek kicked off at 01:00 on Saturday 23 October 2021 at Skagerak Arena.
Where is ODD Ballklubb vs Stabaek being played?
The match is being played at Skagerak Arena.
What competition is ODD Ballklubb vs Stabaek part of?
ODD Ballklubb vs Stabaek is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win ODD Ballklubb vs Stabaek?
Our statistical model gives ODD Ballklubb a 39% chance of winning, Stabaek a 36% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making ODD Ballklubb the favourite.
Will both teams score in ODD Ballklubb vs Stabaek?
Our model estimates a 74% probability that both ODD Ballklubb and Stabaek will score (BTTS).
Will ODD Ballklubb vs Stabaek have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%.
What is the head-to-head record between ODD Ballklubb and Stabaek?
Record (3 meetings): ODD Ballklubb 2W | Draws 1 | Stabaek 0W.
What form are ODD Ballklubb and Stabaek in?
ODD Ballklubb (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-L-W-L-D. Stabaek (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
ODD Ballklubb's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Stabaek's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.96. The same calculation in reverse, Stabaek's attack versus ODD Ballklubb's defence, projects 1.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (7.8%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
ODD Ballklubb Win
39%
2.54
25%
4.08
36%
2.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
7.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
7.8%
Home win
1 – 2
7.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.96
ODD Ballklubb xG
Total xG
3.83
1.87
Stabaek xG
2.54
39%
Home win
4.08
25%
Draw
2.77
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
53%
Over 3.5
1.89
47%
Under 3.5
2.13
34%
Over 4.5
2.94
66%
Under 4.5
1.52
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
74%
BTTS Yes
1.34
26%
BTTS No
3.90
Clean Sheet
15%
6.51
14%
7.09
Win to Nil
6%
16.51
5%
19.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 4.2 | 7.9 | 7.4 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.8 | 7.3 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 5.1 | 4.8 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for ODD Ballklubb vs Stabaek?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.0%.
How many goals are ODD Ballklubb and Stabaek expected to score?
The model projects 1.96 expected goals for ODD Ballklubb and 1.87 for Stabaek, a combined total of 3.83.
How confident is the prediction model for ODD Ballklubb vs Stabaek?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
ODD Ballklubb come into this having played 52 games, going 20W 10D 22L for 1.35 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-D. The sample for ODD Ballklubb is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Stabaek sit at 1.10 PPG from 52 outings (13W 18D 21L), a run that reads L-W-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for Stabaek is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: ODD Ballklubb on 1.35 PPG, Stabaek on 1.10. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
ODD Ballklubb's home form reads 12W 4D 9L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.60 PPG return.
Away from home, Stabaek have taken 1.04 points per game from 25 outings (6W 8D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, ODD Ballklubb come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
ODD Ballklubb are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Stabaek are on 1.31 scored and 1.73 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
ODD Ballklubb
Blended
Stabaek
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are ODD Ballklubb and Stabaek in coming into this match?
ODD Ballklubb have gone 20W 10D 22L in their last 52 games (1.35 PPG), while Stabaek have gone 13W 18D 21L in their last 52 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — ODD Ballklubb at home or Stabaek away?
ODD Ballklubb's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — ODD Ballklubb at home: 1.60 PPG; Stabaek away: 1.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between ODD Ballklubb and Stabaek runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 August 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Aug 2023, when ODD Ballklubb won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
ODD Ballklubb's record when hosting Stabaek specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
ODD Ballklubb
2
Draws
0
Stabaek
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between ODD Ballklubb and Stabaek?
From 6 meetings on record, ODD Ballklubb have won 4, Stabaek have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did ODD Ballklubb and Stabaek last play each other?
They last met on 6 August 2023, when ODD Ballklubb 4-0 Stabaek.
Who has won more matches between ODD Ballklubb and Stabaek?
ODD Ballklubb have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
ODD Ballklubb are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Stabaek are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — ODD Ballklubb at 68%, Stabaek at 68%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 72% for ODD Ballklubb and 72% for Stabaek. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = ODD Ballklubb home games / Stabaek away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when ODD Ballklubb play Stabaek?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of ODD Ballklubb's games and 68% of Stabaek's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is ODD Ballklubb vs Stabaek usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of ODD Ballklubb's matches and 72% of Stabaek's.
Do ODD Ballklubb and Stabaek tend to score early?
ODD Ballklubb have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Stabaek in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at ODD Ballklubb's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
ODD Ballklubb and Stabaek finished level at 0-0 at Skagerak Arena, Regular Season - 26, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting ODD Ballklubb 1.96 xG and Stabaek 1.87 xG, a combined 3.83. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. ODD Ballklubb fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Stabaek landed 1.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ODD Ballklubb attack 1.02 / defence 1.31 against Stabaek attack 1.15 / defence 1.08, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it ODD Ballklubb 39% | Draw 25% | Stabaek 36%, with ODD Ballklubb to win its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 91% and missed. Over 3.5 was 53% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 74% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ODD Ballklubb 64%, Stabaek 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
ODD Ballklubb's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Stabaek's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — ODD Ballklubb 1.35 PPG, Stabaek 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. ODD Ballklubb (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.56 average — tighter than their form line. Stabaek (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.04 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.