ODD Ballklubb 2-3 Rosenborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Rosenborg at 43% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this ODD Ballklubb vs Rosenborg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Rosenborg travel to Skagerak Arena to take on ODD Ballklubb. The game is scheduled for Saturday 30 July 2022, 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, ODD Ballklubb have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W W D L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for ODD Ballklubb, so this record blends games from this season and last.
ODD Ballklubb's form when playing at home: 4W 0D 6L across 10 games at Skagerak Arena this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rosenborg stand at 5W 4D 1L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Rosenborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Rosenborg have posted 2W 5D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Rosenborg are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for ODD Ballklubb, 3 for Rosenborg and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.6 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 10 Apr 2022, ended 0–1 with Rosenborg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
ODD Ballklubb in-play tendencies (45 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Rosenborg in-play tendencies (45 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 29% of the time; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — ODD Ballklubb 58% and Rosenborg 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (ODD Ballklubb 62% | Rosenborg 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects ODD Ballklubb 1.34 xG and Rosenborg 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: ODD Ballklubb attack 0.939 / defence 1.209 | Rosenborg attack 0.980 / defence 0.886. League average goals — home 1.610 / away 1.327. Data: 46 ODD Ballklubb games / 45 Rosenborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 33% | Draw 25% | Rosenborg 43%. Fair-value odds: ODD Ballklubb 3.03 | Draw 4.00 | Rosenborg 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Rosenborg as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rosenborg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.91 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: ODD Ballklubb 70% | Rosenborg 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: ODD Ballklubb vs Rosenborg | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Skagerak Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Jul 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 33% | Draw 25% | Rosenborg 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 58% | xG ODD Ballklubb 1.34 / Rosenborg 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: ODD Ballklubb attack 0.939 / def 1.209 | Rosenborg attack 0.980 / def 0.886 | league avg home 1.610 / away 1.327 • Poisson stance: Rosenborg (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
ODD Ballklubb xG
Expected Goals
1.57
Rosenborg xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does ODD Ballklubb vs Rosenborg kick off?
ODD Ballklubb vs Rosenborg kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 30 July 2022 at Skagerak Arena.
What was the final score in ODD Ballklubb vs Rosenborg?
ODD Ballklubb 2 - 3 Rosenborg.
Where is ODD Ballklubb vs Rosenborg being played?
The match is being played at Skagerak Arena.
What competition is ODD Ballklubb vs Rosenborg part of?
ODD Ballklubb vs Rosenborg is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win ODD Ballklubb vs Rosenborg?
Our statistical model gives ODD Ballklubb a 33% chance of winning, Rosenborg a 43% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Rosenborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in ODD Ballklubb vs Rosenborg?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both ODD Ballklubb and Rosenborg will score (BTTS).
Will ODD Ballklubb vs Rosenborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between ODD Ballklubb and Rosenborg?
Record (5 meetings): ODD Ballklubb 1W | Draws 1 | Rosenborg 3W.
What form are ODD Ballklubb and Rosenborg in?
ODD Ballklubb (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-D-L-D. Rosenborg (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates ODD Ballklubb's attack at 0.94x the league average against Rosenborg's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 1.34 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Rosenborg's attack versus ODD Ballklubb's defence, projects 1.57 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Rosenborg Win
33%
3.07
25%
4.07
43%
2.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
0 – 1
8.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
ODD Ballklubb xG
Total xG
2.91
1.57
Rosenborg xG
3.07
33%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
2.33
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
21%
4.82
26%
3.82
Win to Nil
7%
14.78
11%
8.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 8.5 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.5 | 9.0 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.7 | 6.0 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.4 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for ODD Ballklubb vs Rosenborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are ODD Ballklubb and Rosenborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for ODD Ballklubb and 1.57 for Rosenborg, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for ODD Ballklubb vs Rosenborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 45 outings, ODD Ballklubb have picked up 1.16 PPG on a 14W 10D 21L record — W-W-D-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for ODD Ballklubb is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rosenborg's form line: 19W 16D 10L from 45 games, 1.62 PPG, last five W-D-W-D-W. The sample for Rosenborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Rosenborg are the form team by 0.46 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against ODD Ballklubb.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, ODD Ballklubb have posted 1.22 PPG from 23 outings (8W 4D 11L).
On the road, Rosenborg have gone 6W 10D 7L from 23 away games — 1.22 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.62 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rosenborg's season.
The Goals Picture
ODD Ballklubb are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; Rosenborg are on 1.87 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rosenborg in 64%.
Last 45 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
ODD Ballklubb
Blended
Rosenborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are ODD Ballklubb and Rosenborg in coming into this match?
ODD Ballklubb have gone 14W 10D 21L in their last 45 games (1.16 PPG), while Rosenborg have gone 19W 16D 10L in their last 45 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — ODD Ballklubb at home or Rosenborg away?
ODD Ballklubb's home record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — ODD Ballklubb at home: 1.22 PPG; Rosenborg away: 1.22 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between ODD Ballklubb and Rosenborg runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 August 2024, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Rosenborg have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Aug 2021, when Rosenborg won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
ODD Ballklubb's record when hosting Rosenborg specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
ODD Ballklubb
2
Draws
7
Rosenborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between ODD Ballklubb and Rosenborg?
From 10 meetings on record, ODD Ballklubb have won 1, Rosenborg have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did ODD Ballklubb and Rosenborg last play each other?
They last met on 25 August 2024, when ODD Ballklubb 1-3 Rosenborg.
Who has won more matches between ODD Ballklubb and Rosenborg?
Rosenborg have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
ODD Ballklubb are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 26% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — ODD Ballklubb at 74%, Rosenborg at 74%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 78% for ODD Ballklubb and 65% for Rosenborg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 56% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = ODD Ballklubb home games / Rosenborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when ODD Ballklubb play Rosenborg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of ODD Ballklubb's games and 74% of Rosenborg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is ODD Ballklubb vs Rosenborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 78% of ODD Ballklubb's matches and 65% of Rosenborg's.
Do ODD Ballklubb and Rosenborg tend to score early?
ODD Ballklubb have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, Rosenborg in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Rosenborg edge out ODD Ballklubb 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rosenborg beat ODD Ballklubb 2-3 at Skagerak Arena, Regular Season - 16, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting ODD Ballklubb 1.34 xG and Rosenborg 1.57 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Rosenborg outscored their 1.57 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ODD Ballklubb attack 0.94 / defence 1.21 against Rosenborg attack 0.98 / defence 0.89, drawn from 46/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it ODD Ballklubb 33% | Draw 25% | Rosenborg 43%, with Rosenborg to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ODD Ballklubb 62%, Rosenborg 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
ODD Ballklubb's trading profile (45 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Rosenborg's trading profile (45 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Rosenborg arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.16. The form guide was vindicated by the result. ODD Ballklubb (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.91 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Rosenborg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.43 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.