ODD Ballklubb vs Bodo/Glimt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates ODD Ballklubb at 44%, yet in-form Bodo/Glimt provide a compelling counter-argument — this ODD Ballklubb vs Bodo/Glimt fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Bodo/Glimt travel to Skagerak Arena to take on ODD Ballklubb in Eliteserien (matchday 13). The game is scheduled for Wednesday 30 June 2021 at 02:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, ODD Ballklubb stand at 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
ODD Ballklubb at home: 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — ODD Ballklubb are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Bodo/Glimt — last 10 games: 8W 1D 1L — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Bodo/Glimt's away record over their last 10 away games: 6W 3D 1L (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Bodo/Glimt's 2.50 PPG return is 1.70 points per game ahead of ODD Ballklubb's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams have scored in at least 80% of each side's games (from ODD Ballklubb's last 10 home games and Bodo/Glimt's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for ODD Ballklubb, 2 for Bodo/Glimt and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.0 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 30 May 2021, ended ODD Ballklubb 1–0 Bodo/Glimt — a ODD Ballklubb win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
ODD Ballklubb in-play and half-time data (last 30 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Bodo/Glimt in-play and half-time data (last 30 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 93% of their matches in away games; they lead at the break 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 93% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 67%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — ODD Ballklubb 57% and Bodo/Glimt 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (ODD Ballklubb 63% | Bodo/Glimt 90%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects ODD Ballklubb 1.40 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: ODD Ballklubb attack 1.100 / defence 0.793 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.109 / defence 0.761. League average goals — home 1.667 / away 1.179. Bodo/Glimt bring a tight defence (rating 0.761, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling ODD Ballklubb's projected output down. ODD Ballklubb have a tight defence (rating 0.793), which is pulling Bodo/Glimt's projected output down. Data: built from ODD Ballklubb's last 38 games and Bodo/Glimt's last 41.
Result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 44% | Draw 30% | Bodo/Glimt 26%. Fair-value odds: ODD Ballklubb 2.29 | Draw 3.34 | Bodo/Glimt 3.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
Form (ODD Ballklubb's last 10 home games and Bodo/Glimt's last 10 away games) suggests ~3.0 goals/game but Poisson Over 2.5 probability is only 44% — the model is applying a significant defensive adjustment; treat Over 2.5 with caution despite form.
On the Poisson output, ODD Ballklubb are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Bodo/Glimt (2.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on ODD Ballklubb offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.43 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though recent form (ODD Ballklubb's last 10 home games and Bodo/Glimt's last 10 away games) averaging 3.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches point the other way.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: ODD Ballklubb 80% (last 10 home games) | Bodo/Glimt 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: ODD Ballklubb vs Bodo/Glimt | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 13 | Venue: Skagerak Arena • Kick-off: Wednesday 30 June 2021 at 02:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 44% | Draw 30% | Bodo/Glimt 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG ODD Ballklubb 1.40 / Bodo/Glimt 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: ODD Ballklubb attack 1.100 / def 0.793 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.109 / def 0.761 | league avg home 1.667 / away 1.179 • Poisson stance: ODD Ballklubb (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
ODD Ballklubb xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Bodo/Glimt xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ ODD Ballklubb vs Bodo/Glimt FAQs
What time does ODD Ballklubb vs Bodo/Glimt kick off?
ODD Ballklubb vs Bodo/Glimt kicked off at 02:00 UK time on Wednesday 30 June 2021 at Skagerak Arena.
Where is ODD Ballklubb vs Bodo/Glimt being played?
The match is being played at Skagerak Arena.
What competition is ODD Ballklubb vs Bodo/Glimt part of?
ODD Ballklubb vs Bodo/Glimt is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 13) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win ODD Ballklubb vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our statistical model gives ODD Ballklubb a 44% chance of winning, Bodo/Glimt a 26% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making ODD Ballklubb the favourite.
Will both teams score in ODD Ballklubb vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both ODD Ballklubb and Bodo/Glimt will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will ODD Ballklubb vs Bodo/Glimt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates ODD Ballklubb's attack at 1.10x the league average against Bodo/Glimt's defence at 0.76x — combine the two and it projects 1.40 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bodo/Glimt's attack versus ODD Ballklubb's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from ODD Ballklubb's last 38 games and Bodo/Glimt's last 41 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 0-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
ODD Ballklubb Win
44%
2.29
30%
3.34
26%
3.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
ODD Ballklubb xG
Total xG
2.43
1.04
Bodo/Glimt xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
3.78
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
25%
4.03
Win to Nil
15%
6.47
7%
15.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 9.1 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 12.7 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 8.9 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ ODD Ballklubb vs Bodo/Glimt Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for ODD Ballklubb vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are ODD Ballklubb and Bodo/Glimt expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for ODD Ballklubb and 1.04 for Bodo/Glimt, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for ODD Ballklubb vs Bodo/Glimt?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
ODD Ballklubb's recent record stands at 13W 4D 13L from 30 games, a 1.43 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-L in the last five.
Bodo/Glimt, meanwhile, have gone 26W 3D 1L across 30 games — 2.70 PPG, with W-D-W-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bodo/Glimt by 1.27 — a real, if not enormous, edge over ODD Ballklubb heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, ODD Ballklubb have managed 8W 2D 5L from their last 15 home games — 1.73 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bodo/Glimt's away record stands at 11W 3D 1L across their last 15 away games, a 2.40 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bodo/Glimt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
ODD Ballklubb are averaging 1.73 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Bodo/Glimt are on 3.43 scored and 1.07 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bodo/Glimt in 70%.
Last 30 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
ODD Ballklubb
Current Season
Bodo/Glimt
Current Season
ODD Ballklubb (Home) vs Bodo/Glimt (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
ODD Ballklubb
Current Season
Bodo/Glimt
Current Season
❓ ODD Ballklubb vs Bodo/Glimt Form FAQs
What form are ODD Ballklubb and Bodo/Glimt in coming into this match?
ODD Ballklubb have gone 13W 4D 13L in their last 30 games (1.43 PPG), while Bodo/Glimt have gone 26W 3D 1L in their last 30 (2.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — ODD Ballklubb at home or Bodo/Glimt away?
Bodo/Glimt's away record (2.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — ODD Ballklubb at home: 1.73 PPG; Bodo/Glimt away: 2.40 PPG.
Have ODD Ballklubb or Bodo/Glimt been keeping clean sheets recently?
ODD Ballklubb have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Bodo/Glimt in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to July 2020. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent in our data was on 23 November 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Bodo/Glimt have won each of the latest 5 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 6 Aug 2022, when Bodo/Glimt won Bodo/Glimt 7-0 ODD Ballklubb.
ODD Ballklubb's record when hosting Bodo/Glimt specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
ODD Ballklubb
1
Draws
7
Bodo/Glimt
Recent Meetings
❓ ODD Ballklubb vs Bodo/Glimt H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between ODD Ballklubb and Bodo/Glimt?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, ODD Ballklubb have won 2, Bodo/Glimt have won 7, and 1 has been drawn.
When did ODD Ballklubb and Bodo/Glimt last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 November 2024: ODD Ballklubb 0-2 Bodo/Glimt.
Who has won more matches between ODD Ballklubb and Bodo/Glimt?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
ODD Ballklubb are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 73% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — ODD Ballklubb at 67%, Bodo/Glimt at 80%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for ODD Ballklubb and 93% for Bodo/Glimt. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 73% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = ODD Ballklubb home games / Bodo/Glimt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ ODD Ballklubb vs Bodo/Glimt Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in ODD Ballklubb and Bodo/Glimt matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of ODD Ballklubb's games and 80% of Bodo/Glimt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are ODD Ballklubb and Bodo/Glimt matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of ODD Ballklubb's matches and 93% of Bodo/Glimt's.
Do ODD Ballklubb and Bodo/Glimt matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of ODD Ballklubb's recent matches and 93% of Bodo/Glimt's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at ODD Ballklubb's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
ODD Ballklubb and Bodo/Glimt finished level at 0-0 at Skagerak Arena, Regular Season - 13, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting ODD Ballklubb 1.40 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.04 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. ODD Ballklubb fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Bodo/Glimt landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ODD Ballklubb attack 1.10 / defence 0.79 against Bodo/Glimt attack 1.11 / defence 0.76, drawn from 38/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it ODD Ballklubb 44% | Draw 30% | Bodo/Glimt 26%, with ODD Ballklubb to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 77% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ODD Ballklubb 63%, Bodo/Glimt 90%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
ODD Ballklubb's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 2.70 PPG against 1.43. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. ODD Ballklubb (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.87 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line. Bodo/Glimt (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.93 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.