Molde 6-1 Start – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Molde (70%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Molde face Start.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Start travel to Aker Stadion to take on Molde. The game is scheduled for Sunday 18 October 2026, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Molde stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Molde, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Aker Stadion, Molde have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Start — All Games: 3W 0D 7L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Start, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Start's away record: 1W 1D 8L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Molde are in the better shape of the two on current Eliteserien data — 0.80 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.90). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Molde, 0 for Start and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 19 Apr 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Molde in-play tendencies (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Start in-play tendencies (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Molde 73% and Start 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Molde 68% | Start 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Molde 2.52 xG and Start 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Molde attack 1.065 / defence 0.981 | Start attack 0.649 / defence 1.344. League average goals — home 1.759 / away 1.503. Start bring a strong defensive rating of 1.344 — this is suppressing Molde's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 52 Molde games / 22 Start games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Molde 70% | Draw 19% | Start 11%. Fair-value odds: Molde 1.43 | Draw 5.26 | Start 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Molde (70%) — a 59pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.47. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.47 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Molde are the pick at 70% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.47 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 67% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Molde 70% | Start 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Molde vs Start | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Aker Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Molde 70% | Draw 19% | Start 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 58% | xG Molde 2.52 / Start 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Molde attack 1.065 / def 0.981 | Start attack 0.649 / def 1.344 | league avg home 1.759 / away 1.503 • Poisson stance: Molde (70%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.52
Molde xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Start xG
58%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Molde vs Start kick off?
Molde vs Start kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 18 October 2026 at Aker Stadion.
What was the final score in Molde vs Start?
Molde 6 - 1 Start.
Where is Molde vs Start being played?
The match is being played at Aker Stadion.
What competition is Molde vs Start part of?
Molde vs Start is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Molde vs Start?
Our statistical model gives Molde a 70% chance of winning, Start a 11% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Molde the favourite.
Will both teams score in Molde vs Start?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Molde and Start will score (BTTS).
Will Molde vs Start have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Molde and Start?
Record (3 meetings): Molde 2W | Draws 1 | Start 0W.
What form are Molde and Start in?
Molde (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-W-W-L-D. Start (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Molde's attack at 1.06x the league average against Start's defence at 1.34x — combine the two and it projects 2.52 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Start's attack versus Molde's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 9.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-1 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Molde Win
70%
1.43
19%
5.31
11%
9.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
3 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.52
Molde xG
Total xG
3.47
0.96
Start xG
1.43
70%
Home win
5.31
19%
Draw
9.04
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
38%
2.60
8%
12.39
Win to Nil
27%
3.72
1%
112.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 7.8 | 7.5 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.4 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.2 | 7.9 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.2 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Molde vs Start?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Molde and Start expected to score?
The model projects 2.52 expected goals for Molde and 0.96 for Start, a combined total of 3.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Molde vs Start?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Molde's recent record stands at 11W 4D 7L from 22 games, a 1.68 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Molde is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Start, meanwhile, have gone 4W 4D 14L across 22 games — 0.73 PPG, with W-L-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Start is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Molde by 0.95 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Start heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Molde have managed 7W 1D 3L from 11 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Start's away record stands at 1W 1D 9L across 11 trips, a 0.36 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Molde come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Molde are averaging 2.09 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Start are on 1.09 scored and 2.18 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Molde have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games.
Last 22 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Molde
Blended
Start
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Molde and Start in coming into this match?
Molde have gone 11W 4D 7L in their last 22 games (1.68 PPG), while Start have gone 4W 4D 14L in their last 22 (0.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Molde at home or Start away?
Molde's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Molde at home: 2.00 PPG; Start away: 0.36 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Molde and Start runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 18 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Aug 2020, when Molde won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Molde's record when hosting Start specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Molde
1
Draws
0
Start
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Molde and Start?
From 4 meetings on record, Molde have won 3, Start have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Molde and Start last play each other?
They last met on 18 October 2026, when Molde 6-1 Start.
Who has won more matches between Molde and Start?
Molde have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Molde are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Start are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Molde 64%, Start 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Molde and 73% for Start. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Start in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Molde home games / Start away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Molde play Start?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Molde's games and 64% of Start's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Molde vs Start usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Molde's matches and 73% of Start's.
Do Molde and Start tend to score early?
Molde have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, Start in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Molde run riot with a 6-1 hammering of Start.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Molde beat Start 6-1 at Aker Stadion, Regular Season - 24, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Molde 2.52 xG and Start 0.96 xG, a combined 3.47. The scoreboard read 6-1 for 7 actual goals. Molde beat their projection by 3.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Molde attack 1.06 / defence 0.98 against Start attack 0.65 / defence 1.34, drawn from 52/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Molde 70% | Draw 19% | Start 11%, with Molde to win its most likely call at 70%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Molde 68%, Start 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Molde's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Start's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Molde arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 0.73. That form edge translated into the three points. Molde (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 2.18 average — above their attacking norm. Start (home/away splits) shipped 6 against a 2.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.