Molde 4-1 Rosenborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Molde at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Molde vs Rosenborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Molde and Rosenborg meet at Aker Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 27. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 21 November 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Molde (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Molde, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Aker Stadion, Molde have gone 8W 1D 1L this season (10 games, 2.50 PPG). They are averaging 3.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Molde are significantly better at Aker Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Rosenborg's overall Eliteserien record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D W D L D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Rosenborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rosenborg away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading & In-Play
Molde — key trading statistics (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 82% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 55%.
Rosenborg — key trading statistics (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Molde 61% and Rosenborg 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Molde 80% | Rosenborg 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Molde 1.99 xG and Rosenborg 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Molde attack 1.365 / defence 0.969 | Rosenborg attack 1.042 / defence 0.827. League average goals — home 1.763 / away 1.221. Molde carry an above-average attack strength of 1.365 — their λ of 1.99 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 56 Molde games / 56 Rosenborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Molde 53% | Draw 27% | Rosenborg 21%. Fair-value odds: Molde 1.89 | Draw 3.70 | Rosenborg 4.76. Molde hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.22. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.22 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.99 / 1.23) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Molde are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Molde if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.22 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Molde 50% | Rosenborg 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Molde vs Rosenborg | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Aker Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Nov 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Molde 53% | Draw 27% | Rosenborg 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 64% | xG Molde 1.99 / Rosenborg 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Molde attack 1.365 / def 0.969 | Rosenborg attack 1.042 / def 0.827 | league avg home 1.763 / away 1.221 • Poisson stance: Molde (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.99
Molde xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Rosenborg xG
64%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Molde vs Rosenborg kick off?
Molde vs Rosenborg kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 21 November 2021 at Aker Stadion.
What was the final score in Molde vs Rosenborg?
Molde 4 - 1 Rosenborg.
Where is Molde vs Rosenborg being played?
The match is being played at Aker Stadion.
What competition is Molde vs Rosenborg part of?
Molde vs Rosenborg is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Molde vs Rosenborg?
Our statistical model gives Molde a 53% chance of winning, Rosenborg a 21% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Molde the favourite.
Will both teams score in Molde vs Rosenborg?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Molde and Rosenborg will score (BTTS).
Will Molde vs Rosenborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Molde and Rosenborg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Molde and Rosenborg in?
Molde (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. Rosenborg (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Molde's attack rating (1.36) and Rosenborg's defence rating (0.83), the model arrives at 1.99 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Rosenborg's attack (1.04x) against Molde's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Molde Win
53%
1.90
27%
3.77
21%
4.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.99
Molde xG
Total xG
3.22
1.23
Rosenborg xG
1.90
53%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
4.78
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.75
Clean Sheet
29%
3.43
14%
7.32
Win to Nil
15%
6.53
3%
34.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 4.9 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 9.8 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.7 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 6.5 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Molde vs Rosenborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Molde and Rosenborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.99 expected goals for Molde and 1.23 for Rosenborg, a combined total of 3.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Molde vs Rosenborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Molde's recent record stands at 35W 7D 14L from 56 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Molde is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rosenborg, meanwhile, have gone 27W 14D 15L across 56 games — 1.70 PPG, with D-W-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for Rosenborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.00 PPG for Molde against 1.70 for Rosenborg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Molde have managed 22W 2D 4L from 28 games — 2.43 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 2.00 PPG overall — Molde are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Rosenborg's away record stands at 9W 9D 10L across 28 trips, a 1.29 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.70 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rosenborg's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Molde come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Molde are averaging 2.45 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Rosenborg are on 1.82 scored and 1.25 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Molde have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Rosenborg in 61%.
Last 56 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Molde
Blended
Rosenborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Molde and Rosenborg in coming into this match?
Molde have gone 35W 7D 14L in their last 56 games (2.00 PPG), while Rosenborg have gone 27W 14D 15L in their last 56 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Molde at home or Rosenborg away?
Molde's home record (2.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Molde at home: 2.43 PPG; Rosenborg away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Molde or Rosenborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Molde have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Rosenborg in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Molde have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Molde won 4-1 on 21 Nov 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Molde have gone 4W 2D 0L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Rosenborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Molde
4
Draws
2
Rosenborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Molde and Rosenborg?
From 10 meetings on record, Molde have won 4, Rosenborg have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Molde and Rosenborg last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Molde 2-0 Rosenborg.
Who has won more matches between Molde and Rosenborg?
Molde have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Molde are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 64% of the time.
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Molde 54%, Rosenborg 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 82% for Molde and 61% for Rosenborg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 57% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Molde keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Rosenborg in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Molde home games / Rosenborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Molde play Rosenborg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Molde's games and 57% of Rosenborg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Molde vs Rosenborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 82% of Molde's matches and 61% of Rosenborg's.
Do Molde and Rosenborg tend to score early?
Molde have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Rosenborg in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Molde run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Rosenborg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Molde beat Rosenborg 4-1 at Aker Stadion, Regular Season - 27, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Molde 1.99 xG and Rosenborg 1.23 xG, a combined 3.22. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Molde beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Molde attack 1.36 / defence 0.97 against Rosenborg attack 1.04 / defence 0.83, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Molde 53% | Draw 27% | Rosenborg 21%, with Molde to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 74% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Molde 80%, Rosenborg 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Molde's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Rosenborg's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Molde 2.00 PPG, Rosenborg 1.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Molde win broke the near-deadlock. Molde (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.89 average — above their attacking norm. Rosenborg (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.32 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.