Molde 3-3 Lillestrom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Molde at 68% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Molde vs Lillestrom encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Molde and Lillestrom meet at Aker Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 29. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 5 December 2021 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Molde (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Aker Stadion, Molde have gone 8W 1D 1L this season (10 games, 2.50 PPG). They are averaging 3.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Molde are significantly better at Aker Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Lillestrom have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W W D L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Lillestrom away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Molde. A 0.60 PPG lead over Lillestrom (2.00 vs 1.40) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Molde, 0 for Lillestrom and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Jul 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Molde — key trading statistics (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
Lillestrom — key trading statistics (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Molde 50% versus Lillestrom 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Molde 68% | Lillestrom 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Molde 2.83 xG and Lillestrom 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Molde attack 1.472 / defence 0.950 | Lillestrom attack 1.102 / defence 1.103. League average goals — home 1.742 / away 1.230. Molde carry an above-average attack strength of 1.472 — their λ of 2.83 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 58 Molde games / 28 Lillestrom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Molde 68% | Draw 19% | Lillestrom 13%. Fair-value odds: Molde 1.47 | Draw 5.26 | Lillestrom 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Molde (68%) — a 55pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 78% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 4.11. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 78% — a total xG of 4.11 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (2.83 / 1.29) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Molde at 68% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 4.11 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 78% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 4.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 70% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Molde 50% | Lillestrom 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Molde vs Lillestrom | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Aker Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Dec 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Molde 68% | Draw 19% | Lillestrom 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 78% | BTTS 70% | xG Molde 2.83 / Lillestrom 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Molde attack 1.472 / def 0.950 | Lillestrom attack 1.102 / def 1.103 | league avg home 1.742 / away 1.230 • Poisson stance: Molde (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.83
Molde xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Lillestrom xG
70%
BTTS
93%
Over 1.5
78%
Over 2.5
59%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Molde vs Lillestrom kick off?
Molde vs Lillestrom kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 5 December 2021 at Aker Stadion.
What was the final score in Molde vs Lillestrom?
Molde 3 - 3 Lillestrom.
Where is Molde vs Lillestrom being played?
The match is being played at Aker Stadion.
What competition is Molde vs Lillestrom part of?
Molde vs Lillestrom is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Molde vs Lillestrom?
Our statistical model gives Molde a 68% chance of winning, Lillestrom a 13% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Molde the favourite.
Will both teams score in Molde vs Lillestrom?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Molde and Lillestrom will score (BTTS).
Will Molde vs Lillestrom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 78%.
What is the head-to-head record between Molde and Lillestrom?
Record (1 meetings): Molde 0W | Draws 1 | Lillestrom 0W.
What form are Molde and Lillestrom in?
Molde (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-W-W. Lillestrom (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Molde's attack rating (1.47) and Lillestrom's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 2.83 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Lillestrom's attack (1.10x) against Molde's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
These ratings are built from 58/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.4%. Close behind: 3-1 (7.9%), 1-1 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Molde Win
68%
1.47
19%
5.32
13%
7.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.9%
Home win
2 – 0
6.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.83
Molde xG
Total xG
4.11
1.29
Lillestrom xG
1.47
68%
Home win
5.32
19%
Draw
7.47
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
78%
Over 2.5
1.28
22%
Under 2.5
4.55
59%
Over 3.5
1.69
41%
Under 3.5
2.44
39%
Over 4.5
2.56
61%
Under 4.5
1.64
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.44
30%
BTTS No
3.29
Clean Sheet
28%
3.63
6%
16.88
Win to Nil
19%
5.35
1%
126.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 4.6 | 5.9 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.4 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 7.9 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 4.3 | 5.6 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.5 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Molde vs Lillestrom?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.4%.
How many goals are Molde and Lillestrom expected to score?
The model projects 2.83 expected goals for Molde and 1.29 for Lillestrom, a combined total of 4.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Molde vs Lillestrom?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Molde's recent record stands at 17W 5D 6L from 28 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-W in the last five.
Lillestrom, meanwhile, have gone 13W 6D 9L across 28 games — 1.61 PPG, with W-W-D-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.00 PPG for Molde against 1.61 for Lillestrom. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Molde have managed 11W 1D 2L from 14 games — 2.43 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 2.00 PPG overall — Molde are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Lillestrom's away record stands at 6W 3D 5L across 14 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Molde come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Molde are averaging 2.32 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Lillestrom are on 1.57 scored and 1.32 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lillestrom in 64%.
Defensively: Molde have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 28 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Molde
Current Season
Lillestrom
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Molde and Lillestrom in coming into this match?
Molde have gone 17W 5D 6L in their last 28 games (2.00 PPG), while Lillestrom have gone 13W 6D 9L in their last 28 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Molde at home or Lillestrom away?
Molde's home record (2.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Molde at home: 2.43 PPG; Lillestrom away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Molde or Lillestrom been keeping clean sheets recently?
Molde have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Lillestrom in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Molde won 4-0 on 12 Nov 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Molde have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Lillestrom — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Molde
2
Draws
3
Lillestrom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Molde and Lillestrom?
From 9 meetings on record, Molde have won 4, Lillestrom have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Molde and Lillestrom last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Molde 0-1 Lillestrom.
Who has won more matches between Molde and Lillestrom?
Molde have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Molde are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 71% of the time.
Lillestrom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Molde 50%, Lillestrom 79% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 86% for Molde and 71% for Lillestrom. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 64% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Molde keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Molde home games / Lillestrom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Molde play Lillestrom?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Molde's games and 79% of Lillestrom's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Molde vs Lillestrom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 86% of Molde's matches and 71% of Lillestrom's.
Do Molde and Lillestrom tend to score early?
Molde have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Lillestrom in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Molde and Lillestrom share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Aker Stadion, Regular Season - 29, as Molde and Lillestrom drew 3-3 in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Molde 2.83 xG and Lillestrom 1.29 xG, a combined 4.11. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Lillestrom outscored their 1.29 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Molde attack 1.47 / defence 0.95 against Lillestrom attack 1.10 / defence 1.10, drawn from 58/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Molde 68% | Draw 19% | Lillestrom 13%, with Molde to win its most likely call at 68%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 78%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 93% and landed. Over 3.5 was 59% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Molde 68%, Lillestrom 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Molde's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Lillestrom's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Molde 2.00 PPG, Lillestrom 1.61 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Molde (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lillestrom (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.64 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.