Mjondalen vs Stromsgodset – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mjondalen at 40%, yet in-form Stromsgodset provide a compelling counter-argument — this Mjondalen vs Stromsgodset fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Consto Arena plays host to Mjondalen versus Stromsgodset in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Saturday 18 September 2021 at 01:00 UTC.
Current Form
Mjondalen's overall Eliteserien record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Mjondalen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Mjondalen have posted 2W 3D 5L at Consto Arena — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Stromsgodset have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Stromsgodset, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stromsgodset's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Stromsgodset are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.60). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Mjondalen 1W, Stromsgodset 1W, 1D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Jun 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Mjondalen — key trading statistics (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Stromsgodset — key trading statistics (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mjondalen 52% versus Stromsgodset 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mjondalen 48% | Stromsgodset 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mjondalen 1.39 xG and Stromsgodset 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjondalen attack 0.788 / defence 1.141 | Stromsgodset attack 0.778 / defence 0.948. League average goals — home 1.864 / away 1.269. Mjondalen's attack strength of 0.788 is below the league average — the 1.39 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 48 Mjondalen games / 48 Stromsgodset games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mjondalen 40% | Draw 32% | Stromsgodset 28%. Fair-value odds: Mjondalen 2.50 | Draw 3.12 | Stromsgodset 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mjondalen are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Stromsgodset (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mjondalen if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.52 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Mjondalen 80% | Stromsgodset 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mjondalen vs Stromsgodset | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Consto Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Sep 2021, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mjondalen 40% | Draw 32% | Stromsgodset 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 53% | xG Mjondalen 1.39 / Stromsgodset 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Mjondalen attack 0.788 / def 1.141 | Stromsgodset attack 0.778 / def 0.948 | league avg home 1.864 / away 1.269 • Poisson stance: Mjondalen (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Mjondalen xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Stromsgodset xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mjondalen vs Stromsgodset kick off?
Mjondalen vs Stromsgodset kicked off at 01:00 on Saturday 18 September 2021 at Consto Arena.
Where is Mjondalen vs Stromsgodset being played?
The match is being played at Consto Arena.
What competition is Mjondalen vs Stromsgodset part of?
Mjondalen vs Stromsgodset is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Mjondalen vs Stromsgodset?
Our statistical model gives Mjondalen a 40% chance of winning, Stromsgodset a 28% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Mjondalen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mjondalen vs Stromsgodset?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Mjondalen and Stromsgodset will score (BTTS).
Will Mjondalen vs Stromsgodset have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mjondalen and Stromsgodset?
Record (3 meetings): Mjondalen 1W | Draws 1 | Stromsgodset 1W.
What form are Mjondalen and Stromsgodset in?
Mjondalen (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Stromsgodset (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Mjondalen's attack at 0.79x the league average against Stromsgodset's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.39 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Stromsgodset's attack (0.78x) against Mjondalen's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mjondalen Win
40%
2.47
32%
3.16
28%
3.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Mjondalen xG
Total xG
2.52
1.13
Stromsgodset xG
2.47
40%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
3.59
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
32%
3.09
25%
4.03
Win to Nil
13%
7.62
7%
14.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 9.1 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 12.6 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.8 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mjondalen vs Stromsgodset?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Mjondalen and Stromsgodset expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Mjondalen and 1.13 for Stromsgodset, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Mjondalen vs Stromsgodset?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Mjondalen's recent record stands at 11W 9D 28L from 48 games, a 0.88 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Mjondalen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Stromsgodset, meanwhile, have gone 14W 14D 20L across 48 games — 1.17 PPG, with L-L-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Stromsgodset is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.88 PPG for Mjondalen against 1.17 for Stromsgodset. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Mjondalen have managed 7W 3D 14L from 24 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Stromsgodset's away record stands at 5W 6D 13L across 24 trips, a 0.88 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Mjondalen are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Stromsgodset are on 1.40 scored and 1.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Stromsgodset in 62%.
Last 48 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mjondalen
Blended
Stromsgodset
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mjondalen and Stromsgodset in coming into this match?
Mjondalen have gone 11W 9D 28L in their last 48 games (0.88 PPG), while Stromsgodset have gone 14W 14D 20L in their last 48 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mjondalen at home or Stromsgodset away?
Mjondalen's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mjondalen at home: 1.00 PPG; Stromsgodset away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 November 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mjondalen won 3-0 on 7 Nov 2020, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mjondalen have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Stromsgodset — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Mjondalen
1
Draws
1
Stromsgodset
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mjondalen and Stromsgodset?
From 4 meetings on record, Mjondalen have won 2, Stromsgodset have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Mjondalen and Stromsgodset last play each other?
They last met on 20 November 2021, when Stromsgodset 1-2 Mjondalen.
Who has won more matches between Mjondalen and Stromsgodset?
Mjondalen have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Mjondalen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Stromsgodset are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mjondalen 50%, Stromsgodset 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Mjondalen) and 62% (Stromsgodset). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Stromsgodset in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mjondalen home games / Stromsgodset away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mjondalen play Stromsgodset?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Mjondalen's recent matches and 58% of Stromsgodset's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mjondalen vs Stromsgodset usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Mjondalen's matches and 62% of Stromsgodset's.
Do Mjondalen and Stromsgodset tend to score early?
Mjondalen have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Stromsgodset in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Mjondalen's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mjondalen and Stromsgodset finished level at 0-0 at Consto Arena, Regular Season - 22, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjondalen 1.39 xG and Stromsgodset 1.13 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Mjondalen fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Stromsgodset landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjondalen attack 0.79 / defence 1.14 against Stromsgodset attack 0.78 / defence 0.95, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mjondalen 40% | Draw 32% | Stromsgodset 28%, with Mjondalen to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mjondalen 48%, Stromsgodset 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mjondalen's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Stromsgodset's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mjondalen 0.88 PPG, Stromsgodset 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Mjondalen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line. Stromsgodset (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.96 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.