Mjondalen vs Rosenborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Rosenborg (41%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Mjondalen face Rosenborg.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Mjondalen host Rosenborg at Consto Arena in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 11 September 2021 at 01:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Mjondalen — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Mjondalen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Mjondalen have posted 2W 3D 5L at Consto Arena — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rosenborg stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Rosenborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rosenborg's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Rosenborg are 0.80 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
Rosenborg have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the last 3 encounters against Mjondalen's 0 victories.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Aug 2021, ended 1–2 with Rosenborg winning.
It is worth noting that Rosenborg have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 3 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Profile
Mjondalen in-play tendencies (47 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Rosenborg in-play tendencies (47 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mjondalen 53% versus Rosenborg 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mjondalen 47% | Rosenborg 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mjondalen 1.33 xG and Rosenborg 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjondalen attack 0.787 / defence 1.161 | Rosenborg attack 1.093 / defence 0.914. League average goals — home 1.850 / away 1.226. Mjondalen's attack strength of 0.787 is below the league average — the 1.33 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 47 Mjondalen games / 47 Rosenborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mjondalen 30% | Draw 29% | Rosenborg 41%. Fair-value odds: Mjondalen 3.33 | Draw 3.45 | Rosenborg 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.33 / 1.56) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Rosenborg at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rosenborg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.89 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Mjondalen 80% | Rosenborg 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mjondalen vs Rosenborg | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Consto Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Sep 2021, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mjondalen 30% | Draw 29% | Rosenborg 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 60% | xG Mjondalen 1.33 / Rosenborg 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: Mjondalen attack 0.787 / def 1.161 | Rosenborg attack 1.093 / def 0.914 | league avg home 1.850 / away 1.226 • Poisson stance: Rosenborg (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Mjondalen xG
Expected Goals
1.56
Rosenborg xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mjondalen vs Rosenborg kick off?
Mjondalen vs Rosenborg kicked off at 01:00 on Saturday 11 September 2021 at Consto Arena.
Where is Mjondalen vs Rosenborg being played?
The match is being played at Consto Arena.
What competition is Mjondalen vs Rosenborg part of?
Mjondalen vs Rosenborg is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Mjondalen vs Rosenborg?
Our statistical model gives Mjondalen a 30% chance of winning, Rosenborg a 41% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Rosenborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mjondalen vs Rosenborg?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Mjondalen and Rosenborg will score (BTTS).
Will Mjondalen vs Rosenborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mjondalen and Rosenborg?
Record (3 meetings): Mjondalen 0W | Draws 0 | Rosenborg 3W.
What form are Mjondalen and Rosenborg in?
Mjondalen (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Rosenborg (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Mjondalen's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Rosenborg's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.33. The same calculation in reverse, Rosenborg's attack versus Mjondalen's defence, projects 1.56 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Rosenborg Win
30%
3.29
29%
3.44
41%
2.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Mjondalen xG
Total xG
2.89
1.56
Rosenborg xG
3.29
30%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
2.47
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
21%
4.74
26%
3.78
Win to Nil
6%
15.57
11%
9.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 8.7 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.5 | 9.0 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.7 | 6.0 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.4 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mjondalen vs Rosenborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Mjondalen and Rosenborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Mjondalen and 1.56 for Rosenborg, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Mjondalen vs Rosenborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Mjondalen's recent record stands at 11W 9D 27L from 47 games, a 0.89 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Mjondalen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rosenborg, meanwhile, have gone 23W 11D 13L across 47 games — 1.70 PPG, with W-W-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Rosenborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Rosenborg by 0.81 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Mjondalen heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Mjondalen have managed 7W 3D 14L from 24 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rosenborg's away record stands at 8W 7D 9L across 24 trips, a 1.29 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.70 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rosenborg's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Mjondalen are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Rosenborg are on 1.79 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mjondalen
Blended
Rosenborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mjondalen and Rosenborg in coming into this match?
Mjondalen have gone 11W 9D 27L in their last 47 games (0.89 PPG), while Rosenborg have gone 23W 11D 13L in their last 47 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mjondalen at home or Rosenborg away?
Rosenborg's away record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mjondalen at home: 1.00 PPG; Rosenborg away: 1.29 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 September 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Rosenborg go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Mjondalen's record when hosting Rosenborg specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Mjondalen
0
Draws
4
Rosenborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mjondalen and Rosenborg?
From 4 meetings on record, Mjondalen have won 0, Rosenborg have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Mjondalen and Rosenborg last play each other?
They last met on 26 September 2021, when Rosenborg 3-1 Mjondalen.
Who has won more matches between Mjondalen and Rosenborg?
Rosenborg have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Mjondalen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mjondalen 50%, Rosenborg 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Mjondalen) and 62% (Rosenborg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rosenborg in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mjondalen home games / Rosenborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mjondalen play Rosenborg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Mjondalen's recent matches and 58% of Rosenborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mjondalen vs Rosenborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Mjondalen's matches and 62% of Rosenborg's.
Do Mjondalen and Rosenborg tend to score early?
Mjondalen have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Rosenborg in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Mjondalen's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mjondalen and Rosenborg finished level at 0-0 at Consto Arena, Regular Season - 21, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjondalen 1.33 xG and Rosenborg 1.56 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Mjondalen fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Rosenborg landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjondalen attack 0.79 / defence 1.16 against Rosenborg attack 1.09 / defence 0.91, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mjondalen 30% | Draw 29% | Rosenborg 41%, with Rosenborg to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mjondalen 47%, Rosenborg 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mjondalen's trading profile (47 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Rosenborg's trading profile (47 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Rosenborg arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 0.89. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Mjondalen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line. Rosenborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.