Mjondalen 0-2 Rosenborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Rosenborg at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mjondalen vs Rosenborg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Mjondalen host Rosenborg at Consto Arena in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 22 August 2020 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Mjondalen — All Games: 3W 0D 7L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L L L W W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Mjondalen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Mjondalen have posted 2W 0D 4L at Consto Arena — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rosenborg stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Rosenborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rosenborg's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 3L across 6 road games this term (1.17 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.17 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Rosenborg are 1.10 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 0.90), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Profile
Mjondalen in-play tendencies (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Rosenborg in-play tendencies (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mjondalen 43% versus Rosenborg 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mjondalen 43% | Rosenborg 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mjondalen 0.87 xG and Rosenborg 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjondalen attack 0.694 / defence 1.115 | Rosenborg attack 0.727 / defence 0.914. League average goals — home 1.370 / away 1.376. Mjondalen's attack strength of 0.694 is below the league average — the 0.87 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 14 Mjondalen games / 14 Rosenborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mjondalen 28% | Draw 31% | Rosenborg 41%. Fair-value odds: Mjondalen 3.57 | Draw 3.23 | Rosenborg 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.99. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.99 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Rosenborg at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rosenborg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.99 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates corroborate: Mjondalen 33% | Rosenborg 33% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mjondalen vs Rosenborg | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Consto Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Aug 2020, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mjondalen 28% | Draw 31% | Rosenborg 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 39% | xG Mjondalen 0.87 / Rosenborg 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Mjondalen attack 0.694 / def 1.115 | Rosenborg attack 0.727 / def 0.914 | league avg home 1.370 / away 1.376 • Poisson stance: Rosenborg (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.87
Mjondalen xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Rosenborg xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mjondalen vs Rosenborg kick off?
Mjondalen vs Rosenborg kicked off at 19:30 on Saturday 22 August 2020 at Consto Arena.
What was the final score in Mjondalen vs Rosenborg?
Mjondalen 0 - 2 Rosenborg.
Where is Mjondalen vs Rosenborg being played?
The match is being played at Consto Arena.
What competition is Mjondalen vs Rosenborg part of?
Mjondalen vs Rosenborg is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Mjondalen vs Rosenborg?
Our statistical model gives Mjondalen a 28% chance of winning, Rosenborg a 41% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Rosenborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mjondalen vs Rosenborg?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Mjondalen and Rosenborg will score (BTTS).
Will Mjondalen vs Rosenborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mjondalen and Rosenborg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Mjondalen and Rosenborg in?
Mjondalen (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-W-W. Rosenborg (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Mjondalen's attacking strength (0.69x league average) is weighed against Rosenborg's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.87. The same calculation in reverse, Rosenborg's attack versus Mjondalen's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 0-1 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rosenborg Win
28%
3.55
31%
3.26
41%
2.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.3%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.7%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.87
Mjondalen xG
Total xG
1.99
1.12
Rosenborg xG
3.55
28%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
2.43
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.56
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
33%
3.05
42%
2.38
Win to Nil
9%
10.83
17%
5.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.7 | 15.3 | 8.6 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.3 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 5.8 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mjondalen vs Rosenborg?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.5%.
How many goals are Mjondalen and Rosenborg expected to score?
The model projects 0.87 expected goals for Mjondalen and 1.12 for Rosenborg, a combined total of 1.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Mjondalen vs Rosenborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Mjondalen's recent record stands at 4W 2D 8L from 14 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Mjondalen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rosenborg, meanwhile, have gone 7W 3D 4L across 14 games — 1.71 PPG, with L-W-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Rosenborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Rosenborg by 0.71 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Mjondalen heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Mjondalen have managed 2W 0D 4L from 6 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rosenborg's away record stands at 2W 1D 3L across 6 trips, a 1.17 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.71 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rosenborg's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Mjondalen are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Rosenborg are on 1.79 scored and 0.93 conceded.
Defensively: Rosenborg in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mjondalen
Blended
Rosenborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mjondalen and Rosenborg in coming into this match?
Mjondalen have gone 4W 2D 8L in their last 14 games (1.00 PPG), while Rosenborg have gone 7W 3D 4L in their last 14 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mjondalen at home or Rosenborg away?
Rosenborg's away record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mjondalen at home: 1.00 PPG; Rosenborg away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Mjondalen or Rosenborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mjondalen have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Rosenborg in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 September 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Rosenborg go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Mjondalen's record when hosting Rosenborg specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Mjondalen
0
Draws
4
Rosenborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mjondalen and Rosenborg?
From 4 meetings on record, Mjondalen have won 0, Rosenborg have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Mjondalen and Rosenborg last play each other?
They last met on 26 September 2021, when Rosenborg 3-1 Mjondalen.
Who has won more matches between Mjondalen and Rosenborg?
Rosenborg have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Mjondalen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Rosenborg see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Mjondalen 33% BTTS, Rosenborg 33%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Mjondalen) and 50% (Rosenborg).
On the defensive side: Mjondalen keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Rosenborg in 33%; Mjondalen have failed to score in 33% of games; Rosenborg in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mjondalen home games / Rosenborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mjondalen play Rosenborg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Mjondalen's recent matches and 33% of Rosenborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mjondalen vs Rosenborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Mjondalen's recent games and 50% of Rosenborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mjondalen and Rosenborg tend to score early?
Mjondalen have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Rosenborg in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rosenborg cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Mjondalen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rosenborg beat Mjondalen 0-2 at Consto Arena, Regular Season - 15, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjondalen 0.87 xG and Rosenborg 1.12 xG, a combined 1.99. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Mjondalen fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Rosenborg outscored their 1.12 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjondalen attack 0.69 / defence 1.11 against Rosenborg attack 0.73 / defence 0.91, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mjondalen 28% | Draw 31% | Rosenborg 41%, with Rosenborg to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mjondalen 43%, Rosenborg 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mjondalen's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Rosenborg's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Rosenborg arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Mjondalen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward. Rosenborg (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.