Mjondalen vs Bodo/Glimt – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Mjondalen at 38%, yet in-form Bodo/Glimt provide a compelling counter-argument — this Mjondalen vs Bodo/Glimt fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Mjondalen host Bodo/Glimt at Consto Arena in Eliteserien (matchday 7). Kick-off is Saturday 8 May 2021 at 16:00 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Mjondalen stand at 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W L W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

Mjondalen's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 0D 5L (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Across their last 10 games, Bodo/Glimt have recorded 8W 1D 1L — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Bodo/Glimt away from home: 6W 3D 1L from their last 10 away games — 2.10 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Bodo/Glimt — 1.20 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.50 vs 1.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Mjondalen have won 0, Bodo/Glimt 2, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.5 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 25 Oct 2020, ended Mjondalen 0–2 Bodo/Glimt — a Bodo/Glimt win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Mjondalen trading profile (last 30 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 87% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

Bodo/Glimt trading profile (last 30 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 93% of their matches in away games; they lead at the break 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 93% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 67%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mjondalen 40% versus Bodo/Glimt 70%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Mjondalen 43% | Bodo/Glimt 90%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Mjondalen 1.56 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjondalen attack 0.925 / defence 0.941 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.181 / defence 0.941. League average goals — home 1.798 / away 1.349. Data: built from Mjondalen's last 30 games and Bodo/Glimt's last 30. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Mjondalen 38% | Draw 26% | Bodo/Glimt 35%. Fair-value odds: Mjondalen 2.62 | Draw 3.79 | Bodo/Glimt 2.83. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (1.56 / 1.50) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Mjondalen are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Bodo/Glimt (2.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mjondalen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 3.06 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Mjondalen's last 10 home games and Bodo/Glimt's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Mjondalen 30% (last 10 home games) | Bodo/Glimt 80% (last 10 away games).

The Poisson model's sample (Mjondalen 30 games, Bodo/Glimt 30) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.

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