Lillestrom 3-1 Stromsgodset – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stromsgodset at 47% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Lillestrom face Stromsgodset.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Stromsgodset travel to Åråsen Stadion to take on Lillestrom in Eliteserien (matchday 14). The game is scheduled for Saturday 13 July 2024 at 17:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Lillestrom stand at 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Lillestrom at home: 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Across their last 10 games, Stromsgodset have recorded 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Stromsgodset away from home: 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Lillestrom 1.30 PPG, Stromsgodset 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 6 H2H matches, Lillestrom have won 4, Stromsgodset 2, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 4.2 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 20 Aug 2023, ended Lillestrom 2–1 Stromsgodset — a Lillestrom win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Lillestrom in-play tendencies (last 43 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Stromsgodset in-play tendencies (last 43 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 52% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lillestrom 56% versus Stromsgodset 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lillestrom 63% | Stromsgodset 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lillestrom 1.18 xG and Stromsgodset 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lillestrom attack 0.857 / defence 1.262 | Stromsgodset attack 0.878 / defence 0.970. League average goals — home 1.425 / away 1.449. Lillestrom's defence rating of 1.262 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Stromsgodset's projected output up. Data: built from Lillestrom's last 43 games and Stromsgodset's last 43.
Result probabilities: Lillestrom 28% | Draw 25% | Stromsgodset 47%. Fair-value odds: Lillestrom 3.58 | Draw 3.99 | Stromsgodset 2.13. Stromsgodset hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Stromsgodset at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stromsgodset offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.79 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Lillestrom's last 10 home games and Stromsgodset's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.2 goals per game across 6 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Lillestrom 40% (last 10 home games) | Stromsgodset 40% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lillestrom vs Stromsgodset | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 14 | Venue: Åråsen Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 13 July 2024 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lillestrom 28% | Draw 25% | Stromsgodset 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Lillestrom 1.18 / Stromsgodset 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: Lillestrom attack 0.857 / def 1.262 | Stromsgodset attack 0.878 / def 0.970 | league avg home 1.425 / away 1.449 • Poisson stance: Stromsgodset (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Lillestrom xG
Expected Goals
1.60
Stromsgodset xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lillestrom vs Stromsgodset FAQs
What time does Lillestrom vs Stromsgodset kick off?
Lillestrom vs Stromsgodset kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Saturday 13 July 2024 at Åråsen Stadion.
What was the final score in Lillestrom vs Stromsgodset?
Lillestrom 3 - 1 Stromsgodset.
Where is Lillestrom vs Stromsgodset being played?
The match is being played at Åråsen Stadion.
What competition is Lillestrom vs Stromsgodset part of?
Lillestrom vs Stromsgodset is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 14) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Lillestrom vs Stromsgodset?
Our statistical model gives Lillestrom a 28% chance of winning, Stromsgodset a 47% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Stromsgodset the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lillestrom vs Stromsgodset?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Lillestrom and Stromsgodset will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Lillestrom vs Stromsgodset have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Lillestrom's attack at 0.86x the league average against Stromsgodset's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.18 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Stromsgodset's attack versus Lillestrom's defence, projects 1.60 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Lillestrom's last 43 games and Stromsgodset's last 43 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stromsgodset Win
28%
3.58
25%
3.99
47%
2.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Lillestrom xG
Total xG
2.79
1.60
Stromsgodset xG
3.58
28%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
2.13
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
20%
4.98
31%
3.27
Win to Nil
6%
17.80
14%
6.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 9.9 | 7.9 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.7 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 6.9 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lillestrom vs Stromsgodset Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lillestrom vs Stromsgodset?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Lillestrom and Stromsgodset expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Lillestrom and 1.60 for Stromsgodset, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Lillestrom vs Stromsgodset?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 43 outings, Lillestrom have picked up 1.37 PPG on a 18W 5D 20L record — L-L-W-W-L across the most recent five.
Stromsgodset's form line: 18W 7D 18L from 43 games, 1.42 PPG, last five W-W-D-D-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lillestrom on 1.37 PPG, Stromsgodset on 1.42. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Lillestrom have posted 1.52 PPG from their last 21 home games (10W 2D 9L).
On the road, Stromsgodset have gone 8W 3D 10L from their last 21 away games — 1.29 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Lillestrom are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Stromsgodset are on 1.21 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Last 43 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lillestrom
Blended
Stromsgodset
Blended
Lillestrom (Home) vs Stromsgodset (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lillestrom
Blended
Stromsgodset
Blended
❓ Lillestrom vs Stromsgodset Form FAQs
What form are Lillestrom and Stromsgodset in coming into this match?
Lillestrom have gone 18W 5D 20L in their last 43 games (1.37 PPG), while Stromsgodset have gone 18W 7D 18L in their last 43 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lillestrom at home or Stromsgodset away?
Lillestrom's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lillestrom at home: 1.52 PPG; Stromsgodset away: 1.29 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from May 2021. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent in our data was on 17 August 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 27 Nov 2021, when Lillestrom won Lillestrom 4-1 Stromsgodset.
Lillestrom's record when hosting Stromsgodset specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Lillestrom
0
Draws
3
Stromsgodset
Recent Meetings
❓ Lillestrom vs Stromsgodset H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lillestrom and Stromsgodset?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Lillestrom have won 5, Stromsgodset have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Lillestrom and Stromsgodset last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 August 2024: Stromsgodset 3-2 Lillestrom.
Who has won more matches between Lillestrom and Stromsgodset?
Lillestrom have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lillestrom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Stromsgodset see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lillestrom 62%, Stromsgodset 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Lillestrom) and 33% (Stromsgodset).
On the defensive side: Stromsgodset in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lillestrom home games / Stromsgodset away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lillestrom vs Stromsgodset Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lillestrom and Stromsgodset matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Lillestrom's recent matches and 38% of Stromsgodset's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Lillestrom and Stromsgodset matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 71% of Lillestrom's recent games and 33% of Stromsgodset's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lillestrom and Stromsgodset matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Lillestrom's recent matches and 52% of Stromsgodset's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lillestrom cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Stromsgodset.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lillestrom beat Stromsgodset 3-1 at Åråsen Stadion, Regular Season - 14, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lillestrom 1.18 xG and Stromsgodset 1.60 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Lillestrom beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lillestrom attack 0.86 / defence 1.26 against Stromsgodset attack 0.88 / defence 0.97, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lillestrom 28% | Draw 25% | Stromsgodset 47%, with Stromsgodset to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Lillestrom win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lillestrom 63%, Stromsgodset 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lillestrom's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Stromsgodset's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lillestrom 1.37 PPG, Stromsgodset 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lillestrom win broke the near-deadlock. Lillestrom (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.86 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line. Stromsgodset (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.