Lillestrom 2-0 Sarpsborg 08 FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lillestrom at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lillestrom vs Sarpsborg 08 FF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Lillestrom and Sarpsborg 08 FF meet at Åråsen Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 2. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 28 July 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Lillestrom's overall Eliteserien record this term: 6W 3D 1L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: D W D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Lillestrom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Åråsen Stadion, Lillestrom have gone 4W 1D 1L this season (6 games, 2.17 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Sarpsborg 08 FF (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L W L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Sarpsborg 08 FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Lillestrom. A 0.90 PPG lead over Sarpsborg 08 FF (2.10 vs 1.20) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Lillestrom have seen both teams score in 67% of their games, Sarpsborg 08 FF in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading
Lillestrom half-time and goal-timing data (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Sarpsborg 08 FF half-time and goal-timing data (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lillestrom 75% and Sarpsborg 08 FF 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lillestrom 58% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lillestrom 1.61 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lillestrom attack 0.891 / defence 0.973 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.886 / defence 1.058. League average goals — home 1.713 / away 1.143. Data: 12 Lillestrom games / 43 Sarpsborg 08 FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lillestrom 49% | Draw 31% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 20%. Fair-value odds: Lillestrom 2.04 | Draw 3.23 | Sarpsborg 08 FF 5.00. Lillestrom hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Lillestrom as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lillestrom if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.60 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Lillestrom 67% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lillestrom vs Sarpsborg 08 FF | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Åråsen Stadion • Kick-off: Wednesday 28 Jul 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lillestrom 49% | Draw 31% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Lillestrom 1.61 / Sarpsborg 08 FF 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Lillestrom attack 0.891 / def 0.973 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.886 / def 1.058 | league avg home 1.713 / away 1.143 • Poisson stance: Lillestrom (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Lillestrom xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lillestrom vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kick off?
Lillestrom vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 28 July 2021 at Åråsen Stadion.
What was the final score in Lillestrom vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Lillestrom 2 - 0 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Where is Lillestrom vs Sarpsborg 08 FF being played?
The match is being played at Åråsen Stadion.
What competition is Lillestrom vs Sarpsborg 08 FF part of?
Lillestrom vs Sarpsborg 08 FF is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Lillestrom vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our statistical model gives Lillestrom a 49% chance of winning, Sarpsborg 08 FF a 20% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Lillestrom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lillestrom vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Lillestrom and Sarpsborg 08 FF will score (BTTS).
Will Lillestrom vs Sarpsborg 08 FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lillestrom and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lillestrom and Sarpsborg 08 FF in?
Lillestrom (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-D-W. Sarpsborg 08 FF (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Lillestrom's attack rating (0.89) and Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.61 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack (0.89x) against Lillestrom's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from 12/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.4%), 2-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lillestrom Win
49%
2.03
31%
3.26
20%
4.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Lillestrom xG
Total xG
2.60
0.99
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
4.96
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
20%
5.03
Win to Nil
18%
5.45
4%
24.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 7.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 11.8 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.5 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lillestrom vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Lillestrom and Sarpsborg 08 FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Lillestrom and 0.99 for Sarpsborg 08 FF, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Lillestrom vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Lillestrom's recent record stands at 6W 3D 3L from 12 games, a 1.75 PPG return, with D-W-D-D-W in the last five. The sample for Lillestrom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sarpsborg 08 FF, meanwhile, have gone 3W 4D 5L across 12 games — 1.08 PPG, with L-W-L-D-D in their last five. The sample for Sarpsborg 08 FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Lillestrom by 0.67 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sarpsborg 08 FF heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Lillestrom have managed 4W 1D 1L from 6 games — 2.17 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.75 PPG overall — Lillestrom are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's away record stands at 2W 1D 3L across 6 trips, a 1.17 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lillestrom come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lillestrom are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Sarpsborg 08 FF are on 0.92 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lillestrom have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games.
Last 12 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lillestrom
Blended
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lillestrom and Sarpsborg 08 FF in coming into this match?
Lillestrom have gone 6W 3D 3L in their last 12 games (1.75 PPG), while Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 3W 4D 5L in their last 12 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lillestrom at home or Sarpsborg 08 FF away?
Lillestrom's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lillestrom at home: 2.17 PPG; Sarpsborg 08 FF away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Lillestrom or Sarpsborg 08 FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lillestrom have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Sarpsborg 08 FF in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lillestrom won 4-0 on 3 May 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lillestrom have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sarpsborg 08 FF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Lillestrom
1
Draws
4
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lillestrom and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
From 9 meetings on record, Lillestrom have won 4, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lillestrom and Sarpsborg 08 FF last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Lillestrom 4-0 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Lillestrom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Sarpsborg 08 FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lillestrom 67%, Sarpsborg 08 FF 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Lillestrom) and 33% (Sarpsborg 08 FF).
On the defensive side: Lillestrom keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Sarpsborg 08 FF in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lillestrom home games / Sarpsborg 08 FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lillestrom play Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Lillestrom's games and 50% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lillestrom vs Sarpsborg 08 FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Lillestrom's recent games and 33% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lillestrom and Sarpsborg 08 FF tend to score early?
Lillestrom have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Sarpsborg 08 FF in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lillestrom cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Sarpsborg 08 FF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lillestrom beat Sarpsborg 08 FF 2-0 at Åråsen Stadion, Regular Season - 2, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lillestrom 1.61 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 0.99 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Sarpsborg 08 FF landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lillestrom attack 0.89 / defence 0.97 against Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.89 / defence 1.06, drawn from 12/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lillestrom 49% | Draw 31% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 20%, with Lillestrom to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lillestrom 58%, Sarpsborg 08 FF 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lillestrom's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Lillestrom arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.08. That form edge translated into the three points. Lillestrom (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Sarpsborg 08 FF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.