Lillestrom 3-0 Sandefjord – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lillestrom at 54% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lillestrom vs Sandefjord encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 19 as Lillestrom welcome Sandefjord to Åråsen Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 21 August 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Lillestrom have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: L W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Lillestrom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lillestrom's home record at Åråsen Stadion: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Åråsen Stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Lillestrom are significantly better at Åråsen Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Sandefjord — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 2.30. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Sandefjord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Sandefjord have posted 5W 0D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
On current form, Lillestrom have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Lillestrom, 0 for Sandefjord and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 May 2022, ended 4–1 with Lillestrom winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Lillestrom trading profile (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).
Sandefjord trading profile (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lillestrom 58% versus Sandefjord 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lillestrom 56% | Sandefjord 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lillestrom 1.73 xG and Sandefjord 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lillestrom attack 0.900 / defence 0.692 | Sandefjord attack 1.076 / defence 1.138. League average goals — home 1.687 / away 1.356. Lillestrom's defence rating of 0.692 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 48 Lillestrom games / 48 Sandefjord games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lillestrom 54% | Draw 24% | Sandefjord 22%. Fair-value odds: Lillestrom 1.85 | Draw 4.17 | Sandefjord 4.55. Lillestrom hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lillestrom are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lillestrom offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.74 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Lillestrom 30% | Sandefjord 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lillestrom vs Sandefjord | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Åråsen Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Aug 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lillestrom 54% | Draw 24% | Sandefjord 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 52% | xG Lillestrom 1.73 / Sandefjord 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Lillestrom attack 0.900 / def 0.692 | Sandefjord attack 1.076 / def 1.138 | league avg home 1.687 / away 1.356 • Poisson stance: Lillestrom (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Lillestrom xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Sandefjord xG
52%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lillestrom vs Sandefjord kick off?
Lillestrom vs Sandefjord kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 21 August 2022 at Åråsen Stadion.
What was the final score in Lillestrom vs Sandefjord?
Lillestrom 3 - 0 Sandefjord.
Where is Lillestrom vs Sandefjord being played?
The match is being played at Åråsen Stadion.
What competition is Lillestrom vs Sandefjord part of?
Lillestrom vs Sandefjord is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Lillestrom vs Sandefjord?
Our statistical model gives Lillestrom a 54% chance of winning, Sandefjord a 22% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Lillestrom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lillestrom vs Sandefjord?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Lillestrom and Sandefjord will score (BTTS).
Will Lillestrom vs Sandefjord have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lillestrom and Sandefjord?
Record (3 meetings): Lillestrom 2W | Draws 1 | Sandefjord 0W.
What form are Lillestrom and Sandefjord in?
Lillestrom (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-D-L. Sandefjord (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Lillestrom's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Sandefjord's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.73. The same calculation in reverse, Sandefjord's attack versus Lillestrom's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 1-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lillestrom Win
54%
1.84
24%
4.21
22%
4.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Lillestrom xG
Total xG
2.74
1.01
Sandefjord xG
1.84
54%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
4.54
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
18%
5.62
Win to Nil
20%
5.06
4%
25.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 11.3 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.8 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lillestrom vs Sandefjord?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Lillestrom and Sandefjord expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Lillestrom and 1.01 for Sandefjord, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Lillestrom vs Sandefjord?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lillestrom come into this having played 48 games, going 25W 11D 12L for 1.79 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-D-L. The sample for Lillestrom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sandefjord sit at 1.19 PPG from 48 outings (16W 9D 23L), a run that reads L-W-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Sandefjord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lillestrom carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.60 PPG clear of Sandefjord — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Lillestrom's home form reads 14W 4D 5L across 23 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Sandefjord have taken 1.09 points per game from 23 outings (8W 1D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lillestrom come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lillestrom are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Sandefjord are on 1.44 scored and 1.90 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lillestrom
Blended
Sandefjord
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lillestrom and Sandefjord in coming into this match?
Lillestrom have gone 25W 11D 12L in their last 48 games (1.79 PPG), while Sandefjord have gone 16W 9D 23L in their last 48 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lillestrom at home or Sandefjord away?
Lillestrom's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lillestrom at home: 2.00 PPG; Sandefjord away: 1.09 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 16 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 May 2022, when Lillestrom won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lillestrom's record when hosting Sandefjord specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
6
Lillestrom
1
Draws
2
Sandefjord
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lillestrom and Sandefjord?
From 9 meetings on record, Lillestrom have won 6, Sandefjord have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lillestrom and Sandefjord last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Lillestrom 3-1 Sandefjord.
Who has won more matches between Lillestrom and Sandefjord?
Lillestrom have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lillestrom see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Sandefjord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lillestrom 39%, Sandefjord 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Lillestrom) and 74% (Sandefjord). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lillestrom keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; Sandefjord in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lillestrom home games / Sandefjord away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lillestrom play Sandefjord?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Lillestrom's recent matches and 52% of Sandefjord's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lillestrom vs Sandefjord usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 39% of Lillestrom's matches and 74% of Sandefjord's.
Do Lillestrom and Sandefjord tend to score early?
Lillestrom have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Sandefjord in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Lillestrom run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Sandefjord.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lillestrom beat Sandefjord 3-0 at Åråsen Stadion, Regular Season - 19, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lillestrom 1.73 xG and Sandefjord 1.01 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Lillestrom beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sandefjord landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lillestrom attack 0.90 / defence 0.69 against Sandefjord attack 1.08 / defence 1.14, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lillestrom 54% | Draw 24% | Sandefjord 22%, with Lillestrom to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lillestrom 56%, Sandefjord 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lillestrom's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Sandefjord's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Lillestrom arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.19. Form held, and they took the win. Lillestrom (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.61 average — above their attacking norm. Sandefjord (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 2.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.