Kristiansund BK 0-0 Sarpsborg 08 FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Kristiansund BK at 47% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kristiansund BK vs Sarpsborg 08 FF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 14 as Kristiansund BK welcome Sarpsborg 08 FF to Kristiansund Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 18 July 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Kristiansund BK have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Kristiansund BK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kristiansund BK's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at Kristiansund Stadion this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Kristiansund BK are significantly better at Kristiansund Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sarpsborg 08 FF stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sarpsborg 08 FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Sarpsborg 08 FF have posted 4W 0D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Sarpsborg 08 FF are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 4 wins apiece for Kristiansund BK, 2 for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 3 shared spoils from 9 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Aug 2025, ended 1–0 with Kristiansund BK winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Kristiansund BK in-play and half-time data (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Sarpsborg 08 FF in-play and half-time data (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Kristiansund BK 58% and Sarpsborg 08 FF 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kristiansund BK 56% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kristiansund BK 1.71 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kristiansund BK attack 0.905 / defence 1.094 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.021 / defence 1.050. League average goals — home 1.800 / away 1.148. Data: 41 Kristiansund BK games / 42 Sarpsborg 08 FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kristiansund BK 47% | Draw 24% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 29%. Fair-value odds: Kristiansund BK 2.13 | Draw 4.17 | Sarpsborg 08 FF 3.45. Kristiansund BK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
Kristiansund BK dominate the H2H record, yet Sarpsborg 08 FF are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Kristiansund BK at 47% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Sarpsborg 08 FF (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kristiansund BK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.99 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Kristiansund BK 70% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kristiansund BK vs Sarpsborg 08 FF | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Kristiansund Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Jul 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kristiansund BK 47% | Draw 24% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 59% | xG Kristiansund BK 1.71 / Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Kristiansund BK attack 0.905 / def 1.094 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.021 / def 1.050 | league avg home 1.800 / away 1.148 • Poisson stance: Kristiansund BK (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Kristiansund BK xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kristiansund BK vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kick off?
Kristiansund BK vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 18 July 2026 at Kristiansund Stadion.
What was the final score in Kristiansund BK vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Kristiansund BK 0 - 0 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Where is Kristiansund BK vs Sarpsborg 08 FF being played?
The match is being played at Kristiansund Stadion.
What competition is Kristiansund BK vs Sarpsborg 08 FF part of?
Kristiansund BK vs Sarpsborg 08 FF is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Kristiansund BK vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our statistical model gives Kristiansund BK a 47% chance of winning, Sarpsborg 08 FF a 29% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Kristiansund BK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kristiansund BK vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Kristiansund BK and Sarpsborg 08 FF will score (BTTS).
Will Kristiansund BK vs Sarpsborg 08 FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kristiansund BK and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Record (9 meetings): Kristiansund BK 4W | Draws 3 | Sarpsborg 08 FF 2W.
What form are Kristiansund BK and Sarpsborg 08 FF in?
Kristiansund BK (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Sarpsborg 08 FF (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Kristiansund BK's attack at 0.91x the league average against Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.71 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack versus Kristiansund BK's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Kristiansund BK Win
47%
2.11
24%
4.21
29%
3.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Kristiansund BK xG
Total xG
2.99
1.28
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
2.11
47%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
3.47
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
28%
3.60
18%
5.52
Win to Nil
13%
7.59
5%
19.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 6.4 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 11.0 | 7.1 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.4 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.4 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kristiansund BK vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Kristiansund BK and Sarpsborg 08 FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Kristiansund BK and 1.28 for Sarpsborg 08 FF, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Kristiansund BK vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Kristiansund BK's recent record stands at 12W 9D 20L from 41 games, a 1.10 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Kristiansund BK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sarpsborg 08 FF, meanwhile, have gone 15W 10D 16L across 41 games — 1.34 PPG, with W-L-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Sarpsborg 08 FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Kristiansund BK on 1.10 PPG, Sarpsborg 08 FF on 1.34. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Kristiansund BK have managed 7W 5D 8L from 20 games — 1.30 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's away record stands at 7W 4D 9L across 20 trips, a 1.25 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Kristiansund BK are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game recently; Sarpsborg 08 FF are on 1.46 scored and 1.61 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sarpsborg 08 FF in 63%.
Last 41 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kristiansund BK
Blended
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kristiansund BK and Sarpsborg 08 FF in coming into this match?
Kristiansund BK have gone 12W 9D 20L in their last 41 games (1.10 PPG), while Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 15W 10D 16L in their last 41 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kristiansund BK at home or Sarpsborg 08 FF away?
Kristiansund BK's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kristiansund BK at home: 1.30 PPG; Sarpsborg 08 FF away: 1.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Kristiansund BK and Sarpsborg 08 FF runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 18 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Kristiansund BK's record when hosting Sarpsborg 08 FF specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Kristiansund BK
4
Draws
2
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kristiansund BK and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
From 10 meetings on record, Kristiansund BK have won 4, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Kristiansund BK and Sarpsborg 08 FF last play each other?
They last met on 18 July 2026, when Kristiansund BK 0-0 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Who has won more matches between Kristiansund BK and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Kristiansund BK have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Kristiansund BK see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches.
Sarpsborg 08 FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kristiansund BK 60%, Sarpsborg 08 FF 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Kristiansund BK and 75% for Sarpsborg 08 FF. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Kristiansund BK have failed to score in 30% of games; Sarpsborg 08 FF in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kristiansund BK home games / Sarpsborg 08 FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kristiansund BK play Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Kristiansund BK's games and 60% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kristiansund BK vs Sarpsborg 08 FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Kristiansund BK's matches and 75% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's.
Do Kristiansund BK and Sarpsborg 08 FF tend to score early?
Kristiansund BK have had a goal before half-time in 55% of their recent matches, Sarpsborg 08 FF in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Kristiansund BK's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kristiansund BK and Sarpsborg 08 FF finished level at 0-0 at Kristiansund Stadion, Regular Season - 14, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kristiansund BK 1.71 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.28 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Kristiansund BK fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Sarpsborg 08 FF landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kristiansund BK attack 0.91 / defence 1.09 against Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.02 / defence 1.05, drawn from 41/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kristiansund BK 47% | Draw 24% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 29%, with Kristiansund BK to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kristiansund BK 56%, Sarpsborg 08 FF 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kristiansund BK's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kristiansund BK 1.10 PPG, Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Kristiansund BK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line. Sarpsborg 08 FF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.45 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.