Kristiansund BK 3-2 Brann – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Kristiansund BK at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kristiansund BK vs Brann encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 11 as Kristiansund BK welcome Brann to Kristiansund Stadion. Kick-off is set for Monday 5 July 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Kristiansund BK — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W L D D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Kristiansund BK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kristiansund BK's home record at Kristiansund Stadion: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Brann stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: W D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Brann, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Brann away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Kristiansund BK carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.20 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 0.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Kristiansund BK, 0 for Brann and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Sep 2020, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Kristiansund BK in-play and half-time data (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Brann in-play and half-time data (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 76% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Kristiansund BK 68% and Brann 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kristiansund BK 58% | Brann 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kristiansund BK 1.51 xG and Brann 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kristiansund BK attack 0.835 / defence 0.848 | Brann attack 0.737 / defence 1.114. League average goals — home 1.626 / away 1.137. Data: 40 Kristiansund BK games / 41 Brann games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kristiansund BK 55% | Draw 29% | Brann 16%. Fair-value odds: Kristiansund BK 1.82 | Draw 3.45 | Brann 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Kristiansund BK (55%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Kristiansund BK at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 29% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.22 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Kristiansund BK 50% | Brann 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kristiansund BK vs Brann | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Kristiansund Stadion • Kick-off: Monday 5 Jul 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kristiansund BK 55% | Draw 29% | Brann 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 41% | xG Kristiansund BK 1.51 / Brann 0.71 • Poisson strength factors: Kristiansund BK attack 0.835 / def 0.848 | Brann attack 0.737 / def 1.114 | league avg home 1.626 / away 1.137 • Poisson stance: Kristiansund BK (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Kristiansund BK xG
Expected Goals
0.71
Brann xG
41%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kristiansund BK vs Brann kick off?
Kristiansund BK vs Brann kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 5 July 2021 at Kristiansund Stadion.
What was the final score in Kristiansund BK vs Brann?
Kristiansund BK 3 - 2 Brann.
Where is Kristiansund BK vs Brann being played?
The match is being played at Kristiansund Stadion.
What competition is Kristiansund BK vs Brann part of?
Kristiansund BK vs Brann is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Kristiansund BK vs Brann?
Our statistical model gives Kristiansund BK a 55% chance of winning, Brann a 16% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Kristiansund BK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kristiansund BK vs Brann?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Kristiansund BK and Brann will score (BTTS).
Will Kristiansund BK vs Brann have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kristiansund BK and Brann?
Record (2 meetings): Kristiansund BK 0W | Draws 2 | Brann 0W.
What form are Kristiansund BK and Brann in?
Kristiansund BK (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-D-D. Brann (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Kristiansund BK's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Brann's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.51. The same calculation in reverse, Brann's attack versus Kristiansund BK's defence, projects 0.71 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 14.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.1%), 2-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kristiansund BK Win
55%
1.82
29%
3.40
16%
6.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.4%
Home win
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Kristiansund BK xG
Total xG
2.22
0.71
Brann xG
1.82
55%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
6.33
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.42
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
49%
2.03
22%
4.54
Win to Nil
27%
3.71
3%
28.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 7.7 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.4 | 11.6 | 4.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.4 | 8.8 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.2 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kristiansund BK vs Brann?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Kristiansund BK and Brann expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Kristiansund BK and 0.71 for Brann, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Kristiansund BK vs Brann?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 40 outings, Kristiansund BK have picked up 1.62 PPG on a 17W 14D 9L record — W-W-L-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Kristiansund BK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Brann's form line: 9W 11D 20L from 40 games, 0.95 PPG, last five W-D-L-L-D. The sample for Brann is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Kristiansund BK are the form team by 0.67 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Brann.
Venue Form
On home soil, Kristiansund BK have posted 1.75 PPG from 20 outings (10W 5D 5L).
On the road, Brann have gone 4W 5D 11L from 20 away games — 0.85 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kristiansund BK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Kristiansund BK are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Brann are on 1.18 scored and 1.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kristiansund BK have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games; Brann in 65%.
Last 40 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kristiansund BK
Blended
Brann
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kristiansund BK and Brann in coming into this match?
Kristiansund BK have gone 17W 14D 9L in their last 40 games (1.62 PPG), while Brann have gone 9W 11D 20L in their last 40 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kristiansund BK at home or Brann away?
Kristiansund BK's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kristiansund BK at home: 1.75 PPG; Brann away: 0.85 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Kristiansund BK's record when hosting Brann specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Kristiansund BK
4
Draws
3
Brann
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kristiansund BK and Brann?
From 9 meetings on record, Kristiansund BK have won 2, Brann have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Kristiansund BK and Brann last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Kristiansund BK 3-2 Brann.
Who has won more matches between Kristiansund BK and Brann?
Brann have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Kristiansund BK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Brann are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kristiansund BK 65%, Brann 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Kristiansund BK) and 50% (Brann).
On the defensive side: Brann in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kristiansund BK home games / Brann away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kristiansund BK play Brann?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Kristiansund BK's games and 50% of Brann's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kristiansund BK vs Brann usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Kristiansund BK's recent games and 50% of Brann's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kristiansund BK and Brann tend to score early?
Kristiansund BK have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Brann in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Kristiansund BK edge out Brann 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kristiansund BK beat Brann 3-2 at Kristiansund Stadion, Regular Season - 11, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kristiansund BK 1.51 xG and Brann 0.71 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Kristiansund BK beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Brann outscored their 0.71 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kristiansund BK attack 0.83 / defence 0.85 against Brann attack 0.74 / defence 1.11, drawn from 40/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kristiansund BK 55% | Draw 29% | Brann 16%, with Kristiansund BK to win its most likely call at 55%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kristiansund BK 58%, Brann 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kristiansund BK's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Brann's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Kristiansund BK arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 0.95. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Kristiansund BK (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.95 average — above their attacking norm. Brann (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.