Haugesund 1-0 Start – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Start at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Haugesund vs Start fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Haugesund and Start meet at Haugesund Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 5. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 1 July 2020 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Haugesund (all games): 1W 1D 2L across 4 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L D W. They are averaging 1.25 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Haugesund have played only a handful of Eliteserien games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Start have collected 0.50 PPG across 4 Eliteserien outings this season: 0W 2D 2L. Last five: D D L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 3.00. Conceding 3.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Start have played only a handful of Eliteserien games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form ledger tips toward Haugesund. A 0.50 PPG lead over Start (1.00 vs 0.50) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using overall form) — Haugesund register both teams scoring in 75% of relevant games, Start in 75%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Haugesund — key trading statistics (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
Start — key trading statistics (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; Over 3.5 in 100%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Haugesund 75% and Start 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Haugesund 75% | Start 100%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Haugesund 1.70 xG and Start 1.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haugesund attack 0.959 / defence 1.257 | Start attack 0.910 / defence 1.271. League average goals — home 1.397 / away 1.606. Start bring a strong defensive rating of 1.271 — this is suppressing Haugesund's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 4 Haugesund games / 4 Start games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Haugesund 36% | Draw 22% | Start 42%. Fair-value odds: Haugesund 2.78 | Draw 4.55 | Start 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.54. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.54 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.70 / 1.84) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Start are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Haugesund (1.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Start if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.54 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 4.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 69%. Form rates corroborate: Haugesund 75% | Start 75% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Haugesund vs Start | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Haugesund Stadion • Kick-off: Wednesday 1 Jul 2020, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Haugesund 36% | Draw 22% | Start 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 69% | xG Haugesund 1.70 / Start 1.84 • Poisson strength factors: Haugesund attack 0.959 / def 1.257 | Start attack 0.910 / def 1.271 | league avg home 1.397 / away 1.606 • Poisson stance: Start (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Haugesund xG
Expected Goals
1.84
Start xG
69%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Haugesund vs Start kick off?
Haugesund vs Start kicked off at 17:00 on Wednesday 1 July 2020 at Haugesund Stadion.
What was the final score in Haugesund vs Start?
Haugesund 1 - 0 Start.
Where is Haugesund vs Start being played?
The match is being played at Haugesund Stadion.
What competition is Haugesund vs Start part of?
Haugesund vs Start is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Haugesund vs Start?
Our statistical model gives Haugesund a 36% chance of winning, Start a 42% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Start the favourite.
Will both teams score in Haugesund vs Start?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Haugesund and Start will score (BTTS).
Will Haugesund vs Start have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Start?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Haugesund and Start in?
Haugesund (all comps): 1W-1D-2L in 4 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.25 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-D-W. Start (all comps): 0W-2D-2L in 4 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 3.00 | L5 D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Haugesund's attack rating (0.96) and Start's defence rating (1.27), the model arrives at 1.70 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Start's attack (0.91x) against Haugesund's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 1.84.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.3%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Start Win
36%
2.76
22%
4.53
42%
2.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
2 – 1
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Haugesund xG
Total xG
3.54
1.84
Start xG
2.76
36%
Home win
4.53
22%
Draw
2.40
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.20
Clean Sheet
16%
6.28
18%
5.49
Win to Nil
6%
17.33
8%
13.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 5.3 | 4.9 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 4.9 | 9.1 | 8.3 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.7 | 7.1 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 4.4 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Haugesund vs Start?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are Haugesund and Start expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Haugesund and 1.84 for Start, a combined total of 3.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Haugesund vs Start?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 4 outings, Haugesund have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 1W 1D 2L record — L-L-D-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Haugesund, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Start's form line: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games, 0.50 PPG, last five D-D-L-L. It's still early in the season for Start, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Haugesund are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Start.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Haugesund are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game recently; Start are on 1.50 scored and 3.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Haugesund have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games; Start in 75%.
Last 4 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Haugesund
Early Season
Start
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Haugesund and Start in coming into this match?
Haugesund have gone 1W 1D 2L in their last 4 games (1.00 PPG), while Start have gone 0W 2D 2L in their last 4 (0.50 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since July 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 October 2020, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Haugesund
0
Draws
1
Start
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Start?
From 2 meetings on record, Haugesund have won 1, Start have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Haugesund and Start last play each other?
They last met on 4 October 2020, when Start 5-1 Haugesund.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Haugesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Start are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 75% for Haugesund, 75% for Start — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Haugesund and 100% for Start. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 100% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Haugesund home games / Start away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Haugesund play Start?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Haugesund's games and 75% of Start's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Haugesund vs Start usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Haugesund's matches and 100% of Start's.
Do Haugesund and Start tend to score early?
Haugesund have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Start in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Haugesund defy the odds to beat Start 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Haugesund beat Start 1-0 at Haugesund Stadion, Regular Season - 5, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Haugesund 1.70 xG and Start 1.84 xG, a combined 3.54. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Start landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haugesund attack 0.96 / defence 1.26 against Start attack 0.91 / defence 1.27, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Haugesund 36% | Draw 22% | Start 42%, with Start to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Haugesund win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 88% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haugesund 75%, Start 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Haugesund's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
Start's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Haugesund arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.50. That form edge translated into the three points. Haugesund conceded 0 against a 2.50 average — tighter than their form line. Start managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.