Haugesund 1-0 Rosenborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Rosenborg at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Haugesund vs Rosenborg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees Rosenborg travel to Haugesund Stadion to take on Haugesund. The game is scheduled for Sunday 26 July 2020, 19:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Haugesund stand at 2W 2D 5L from 9 Eliteserien matches — 0.89 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 0.67 goals per game and conceding 1.78 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Haugesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Haugesund's home record at Haugesund Stadion: 1W 1D 3L from 5 Eliteserien appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Rosenborg have recorded 4W 3D 2L from 9 outings — 1.67 PPG. Last five: D W W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.44 per game is modest, conceding 0.78 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.78 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 9 outings (44%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Rosenborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Rosenborg have posted 2W 1D 1L from 4 away outings — 1.75 PPG. Away from home they average 1.25 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 2 away clean sheets from 4 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form points away from home here. Rosenborg's 1.67 PPG return is 0.78 points per game ahead of Haugesund's 0.89 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Profile
Haugesund in-play tendencies (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Rosenborg in-play tendencies (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Haugesund 33% versus Rosenborg 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Haugesund 44% | Rosenborg 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Haugesund 0.66 xG and Rosenborg 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haugesund attack 0.681 / defence 1.358 | Rosenborg attack 0.853 / defence 0.823. League average goals — home 1.183 / away 1.357. Haugesund's attack strength of 0.681 is below the league average — the 0.66 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 9 Haugesund games / 9 Rosenborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Haugesund 15% | Draw 26% | Rosenborg 59%. Fair-value odds: Haugesund 6.67 | Draw 3.85 | Rosenborg 1.69. The model has a clear lean to Rosenborg (59%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rosenborg are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.24 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Haugesund 40% | Rosenborg 25% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Haugesund vs Rosenborg | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Haugesund Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Jul 2020, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Haugesund 15% | Draw 26% | Rosenborg 59% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 39% | xG Haugesund 0.66 / Rosenborg 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: Haugesund attack 0.681 / def 1.358 | Rosenborg attack 0.853 / def 0.823 | league avg home 1.183 / away 1.357 • Poisson stance: Rosenborg (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.66
Haugesund xG
Expected Goals
1.57
Rosenborg xG
39%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Haugesund vs Rosenborg kick off?
Haugesund vs Rosenborg kicked off at 19:30 on Sunday 26 July 2020 at Haugesund Stadion.
What was the final score in Haugesund vs Rosenborg?
Haugesund 1 - 0 Rosenborg.
Where is Haugesund vs Rosenborg being played?
The match is being played at Haugesund Stadion.
What competition is Haugesund vs Rosenborg part of?
Haugesund vs Rosenborg is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Haugesund vs Rosenborg?
Our statistical model gives Haugesund a 15% chance of winning, Rosenborg a 59% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Rosenborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Haugesund vs Rosenborg?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Haugesund and Rosenborg will score (BTTS).
Will Haugesund vs Rosenborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Rosenborg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Haugesund and Rosenborg in?
Haugesund (all comps): 2W-2D-5L in 9 | 0.89 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 1.78 | L5 W-D-L-L-L. Rosenborg (all comps): 4W-3D-2L in 9 | 1.67 PPG | GF 1.44 / GA 0.78 | L5 D-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Haugesund's attack at 0.68x the league average against Rosenborg's defence at 0.82x — combine the two and it projects 0.66 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Rosenborg's attack versus Haugesund's defence, projects 1.57 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-2 (13.2%), 1-1 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rosenborg Win
15%
6.54
26%
3.90
59%
1.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
13.2%
Away win
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.66
Haugesund xG
Total xG
2.24
1.57
Rosenborg xG
6.54
15%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
1.69
59%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.59
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
21%
4.82
52%
1.94
Win to Nil
3%
31.52
30%
3.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 16.8 | 13.2 | 6.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.2 | 8.8 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 2.4 | 3.7 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Haugesund vs Rosenborg?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.4%.
How many goals are Haugesund and Rosenborg expected to score?
The model projects 0.66 expected goals for Haugesund and 1.57 for Rosenborg, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Haugesund vs Rosenborg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 9 outings, Haugesund have picked up 0.89 PPG on a 2W 2D 5L record — W-D-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Haugesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rosenborg's form line: 4W 3D 2L from 9 games, 1.67 PPG, last five D-W-W-D-W. The sample for Rosenborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Rosenborg are the form team by 0.78 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Haugesund.
Venue Form
On home soil, Haugesund have posted 1.00 PPG from 4 outings (1W 1D 2L).
On the road, Rosenborg have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 away games — 1.75 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rosenborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Haugesund are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Rosenborg are on 1.44 scored and 0.78 conceded.
Defensively: Rosenborg in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 9 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Haugesund
Blended
Rosenborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Haugesund and Rosenborg in coming into this match?
Haugesund have gone 2W 2D 5L in their last 9 games (0.89 PPG), while Rosenborg have gone 4W 3D 2L in their last 9 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Haugesund at home or Rosenborg away?
Rosenborg's away record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Haugesund at home: 1.00 PPG; Rosenborg away: 1.75 PPG.
Have Haugesund or Rosenborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Haugesund have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Rosenborg in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 14 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Rosenborg have won the last 6 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Sep 2024, when Rosenborg won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Haugesund's record when hosting Rosenborg specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Haugesund
3
Draws
6
Rosenborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Rosenborg?
From 10 meetings on record, Haugesund have won 1, Rosenborg have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Haugesund and Rosenborg last play each other?
They last met on 14 September 2025, when Haugesund 0-3 Rosenborg.
Who has won more matches between Haugesund and Rosenborg?
Rosenborg have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Haugesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Rosenborg tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Haugesund 25% BTTS, Rosenborg 25%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Haugesund) and 50% (Rosenborg).
On the defensive side: Rosenborg in 50%; Haugesund have failed to score in 50% of games; Rosenborg in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Haugesund home games / Rosenborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Haugesund play Rosenborg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Haugesund's recent matches and 25% of Rosenborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Haugesund vs Rosenborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Haugesund's recent games and 50% of Rosenborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Haugesund and Rosenborg tend to score early?
Haugesund have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Rosenborg in 25% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Haugesund defy the odds to beat Rosenborg 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Haugesund beat Rosenborg 1-0 at Haugesund Stadion, Regular Season - 10, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Haugesund 0.66 xG and Rosenborg 1.57 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Rosenborg landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haugesund attack 0.68 / defence 1.36 against Rosenborg attack 0.85 / defence 0.82, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Haugesund 15% | Draw 26% | Rosenborg 59%, with Rosenborg to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a Haugesund win, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haugesund 44%, Rosenborg 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Haugesund's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Rosenborg's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Rosenborg arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 0.89. Form was overturned, with Haugesund winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Haugesund (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line. Rosenborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.