Haugesund 2-1 ODD Ballklubb – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Haugesund at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Haugesund vs ODD Ballklubb fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Haugesund Sparebank Arena plays host to Haugesund versus ODD Ballklubb in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Sunday 2 July 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Haugesund have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Haugesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Haugesund Sparebank Arena, Haugesund have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
ODD Ballklubb's overall Eliteserien record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L D L W W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for ODD Ballklubb, so this record blends games from this season and last.
ODD Ballklubb's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: Haugesund 1W, ODD Ballklubb 2W, 3D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.3 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Oct 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Haugesund goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
ODD Ballklubb goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Haugesund 58% versus ODD Ballklubb 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Haugesund 56% | ODD Ballklubb 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Haugesund 1.41 xG and ODD Ballklubb 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haugesund attack 0.962 / defence 1.084 | ODD Ballklubb attack 0.818 / defence 0.857. League average goals — home 1.716 / away 1.258. Data: 41 Haugesund games / 42 ODD Ballklubb games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Haugesund 43% | Draw 27% | ODD Ballklubb 29%. Fair-value odds: Haugesund 2.33 | Draw 3.70 | ODD Ballklubb 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Haugesund as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Haugesund if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.53 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 4.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Haugesund 80% | ODD Ballklubb 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Haugesund vs ODD Ballklubb | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Haugesund Sparebank Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Jul 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Haugesund 43% | Draw 27% | ODD Ballklubb 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Haugesund 1.41 / ODD Ballklubb 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Haugesund attack 0.962 / def 1.084 | ODD Ballklubb attack 0.818 / def 0.857 | league avg home 1.716 / away 1.258 • Poisson stance: Haugesund (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Haugesund xG
Expected Goals
1.12
ODD Ballklubb xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Haugesund vs ODD Ballklubb kick off?
Haugesund vs ODD Ballklubb kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 2 July 2023 at Haugesund Sparebank Arena.
What was the final score in Haugesund vs ODD Ballklubb?
Haugesund 2 - 1 ODD Ballklubb.
Where is Haugesund vs ODD Ballklubb being played?
The match is being played at Haugesund Sparebank Arena.
What competition is Haugesund vs ODD Ballklubb part of?
Haugesund vs ODD Ballklubb is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Haugesund vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our statistical model gives Haugesund a 43% chance of winning, ODD Ballklubb a 29% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Haugesund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Haugesund vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Haugesund and ODD Ballklubb will score (BTTS).
Will Haugesund vs ODD Ballklubb have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and ODD Ballklubb?
Record (6 meetings): Haugesund 1W | Draws 3 | ODD Ballklubb 2W.
What form are Haugesund and ODD Ballklubb in?
Haugesund (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. ODD Ballklubb (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Haugesund's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against ODD Ballklubb's defensive record (0.86x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.41. Flip it around — ODD Ballklubb's attack (0.82x) against Haugesund's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from 41/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.6%), 0-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Haugesund Win
43%
2.31
27%
3.64
29%
3.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Haugesund xG
Total xG
2.53
1.12
ODD Ballklubb xG
2.31
43%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
3.42
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
33%
3.05
24%
4.11
Win to Nil
14%
7.05
7%
14.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 8.9 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.6 | 7.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.9 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Haugesund vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Haugesund and ODD Ballklubb expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Haugesund and 1.12 for ODD Ballklubb, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Haugesund vs ODD Ballklubb?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Haugesund come into this having played 41 games, going 13W 11D 17L for 1.22 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-L. The sample for Haugesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, ODD Ballklubb sit at 1.41 PPG from 41 outings (16W 10D 15L), a run that reads L-D-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for ODD Ballklubb is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.22 PPG for Haugesund against 1.41 for ODD Ballklubb. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Haugesund's home form reads 8W 6D 6L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, ODD Ballklubb have taken 1.40 points per game from 20 outings (7W 7D 6L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Haugesund are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; ODD Ballklubb are on 1.22 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Last 41 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Haugesund
Blended
ODD Ballklubb
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Haugesund and ODD Ballklubb in coming into this match?
Haugesund have gone 13W 11D 17L in their last 41 games (1.22 PPG), while ODD Ballklubb have gone 16W 10D 15L in their last 41 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Haugesund at home or ODD Ballklubb away?
Haugesund's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Haugesund at home: 1.50 PPG; ODD Ballklubb away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Haugesund or ODD Ballklubb been keeping clean sheets recently?
Haugesund have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, ODD Ballklubb in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 December 2024, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Haugesund go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Haugesund won 0-4 on 16 May 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Haugesund have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against ODD Ballklubb — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Haugesund
4
Draws
2
ODD Ballklubb
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and ODD Ballklubb?
From 10 meetings on record, Haugesund have won 4, ODD Ballklubb have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Haugesund and ODD Ballklubb last play each other?
They last met on 1 December 2024, when Haugesund 2-1 ODD Ballklubb.
Who has won more matches between Haugesund and ODD Ballklubb?
Haugesund have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Haugesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
ODD Ballklubb see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Haugesund 75%, ODD Ballklubb 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Haugesund) and 45% (ODD Ballklubb).
On the defensive side: ODD Ballklubb in 40%; ODD Ballklubb in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Haugesund home games / ODD Ballklubb away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Haugesund play ODD Ballklubb?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Haugesund's games and 45% of ODD Ballklubb's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Haugesund vs ODD Ballklubb usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Haugesund's recent games and 45% of ODD Ballklubb's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Haugesund and ODD Ballklubb tend to score early?
Haugesund have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, ODD Ballklubb in 55% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Haugesund edge out ODD Ballklubb 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Haugesund beat ODD Ballklubb 2-1 at Haugesund Sparebank Arena, Regular Season - 12, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Haugesund 1.41 xG and ODD Ballklubb 1.12 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haugesund attack 0.96 / defence 1.08 against ODD Ballklubb attack 0.82 / defence 0.86, drawn from 41/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Haugesund 43% | Draw 27% | ODD Ballklubb 29%, with Haugesund to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haugesund 56%, ODD Ballklubb 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Haugesund's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
ODD Ballklubb's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Haugesund 1.22 PPG, ODD Ballklubb 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Haugesund win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.