Haugesund 0-3 Molde – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Molde at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Haugesund vs Molde encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 7 as Haugesund welcome Molde to Haugesund Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 11 July 2020 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Haugesund have gone 2W 2D 2L from 6 outings — a 1.33 PPG return. Last five: L D W W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.67 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 6 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Haugesund have played only a handful of Eliteserien games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Haugesund's form when playing at home: 1W 1D 1L across 3 games at Haugesund Stadion this term (1.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Molde stand at 5W 1D 0L from 6 Eliteserien matches — 2.67 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.67 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 6 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 83% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Molde have played only a handful of Eliteserien games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Molde have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 away fixtures this term (2.33 PPG). They are averaging 3.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Molde — 1.34 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.67 vs 1.33). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Haugesund register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, Molde in 100% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
Haugesund trading profile (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Molde trading profile (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Haugesund 50% and Molde 83% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Haugesund 50% | Molde 83%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Haugesund 1.32 xG and Molde 1.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haugesund attack 0.892 / defence 1.112 | Molde attack 1.095 / defence 1.166. League average goals — home 1.266 / away 1.577. Data: 6 Haugesund games / 6 Molde games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Haugesund 26% | Draw 22% | Molde 52%. Fair-value odds: Haugesund 3.85 | Draw 4.55 | Molde 1.92. Molde hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.24. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.24 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.32 / 1.92) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Molde at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Molde offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.24 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Haugesund 67% | Molde 100% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Haugesund vs Molde | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Haugesund Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Jul 2020, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Haugesund 26% | Draw 22% | Molde 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 62% | xG Haugesund 1.32 / Molde 1.92 • Poisson strength factors: Haugesund attack 0.892 / def 1.112 | Molde attack 1.095 / def 1.166 | league avg home 1.266 / away 1.577 • Poisson stance: Molde (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Haugesund xG
Expected Goals
1.92
Molde xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Haugesund vs Molde kick off?
Haugesund vs Molde kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 11 July 2020 at Haugesund Stadion.
What was the final score in Haugesund vs Molde?
Haugesund 0 - 3 Molde.
Where is Haugesund vs Molde being played?
The match is being played at Haugesund Stadion.
What competition is Haugesund vs Molde part of?
Haugesund vs Molde is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Haugesund vs Molde?
Our statistical model gives Haugesund a 26% chance of winning, Molde a 52% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Molde the favourite.
Will both teams score in Haugesund vs Molde?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Haugesund and Molde will score (BTTS).
Will Haugesund vs Molde have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Molde?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Haugesund and Molde in?
Haugesund (all comps): 2W-2D-2L in 6 | 1.33 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.67 | L5 L-D-W-W-D. Molde (all comps): 5W-1D-0L in 6 | 2.67 PPG | GF 2.67 / GA 1.17 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Haugesund's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Molde's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.32. The same calculation in reverse, Molde's attack versus Haugesund's defence, projects 1.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Molde Win
26%
3.81
22%
4.50
52%
1.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
0 – 1
7.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Haugesund xG
Total xG
3.24
1.92
Molde xG
3.81
26%
Home win
4.50
22%
Draw
1.94
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.67
Clean Sheet
15%
6.82
27%
3.73
Win to Nil
4%
25.98
14%
7.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 7.5 | 7.2 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 9.9 | 9.5 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 6.5 | 6.3 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Haugesund vs Molde?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Haugesund and Molde expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Haugesund and 1.92 for Molde, a combined total of 3.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Haugesund vs Molde?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Haugesund come into this having played 6 games, going 2W 2D 2L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-W-D. It's still early in the season for Haugesund, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Molde sit at 2.67 PPG from 6 outings (5W 1D 0L), a run that reads W-W-W-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Molde, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Molde carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.34 PPG clear of Haugesund — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Haugesund's home form reads 1W 1D 1L across 3 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Molde have taken 2.33 points per game from 3 outings (2W 1D 0L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Molde come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Haugesund are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Molde are on 2.67 scored and 1.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Molde in 83%.
Defensively: Haugesund have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 6 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Haugesund
Early Season
Molde
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Haugesund and Molde in coming into this match?
Haugesund have gone 2W 2D 2L in their last 6 games (1.33 PPG), while Molde have gone 5W 1D 0L in their last 6 (2.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Haugesund at home or Molde away?
Molde's away record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Haugesund at home: 1.33 PPG; Molde away: 2.33 PPG.
Have Haugesund or Molde been keeping clean sheets recently?
Haugesund have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Molde in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Haugesund and Molde runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 9 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Molde have taken the last 10 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Oct 2024, when Molde won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Haugesund's record when hosting Molde specifically: 0W 0D 5L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Haugesund
0
Draws
10
Molde
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Molde?
From 10 meetings on record, Haugesund have won 0, Molde have won 10, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Haugesund and Molde last play each other?
They last met on 9 November 2025, when Haugesund 0-2 Molde.
Who has won more matches between Haugesund and Molde?
Molde have the better head-to-head record, with 10 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Haugesund see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Molde are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Haugesund at 67%, Molde at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Haugesund and 100% for Molde. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 100% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Haugesund keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Haugesund home games / Molde away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Haugesund play Molde?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Haugesund's games and 100% of Molde's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Haugesund vs Molde usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Haugesund's matches and 100% of Molde's.
Do Haugesund and Molde tend to score early?
Haugesund have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Molde in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Molde run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Haugesund.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Molde beat Haugesund 0-3 at Haugesund Stadion, Regular Season - 7, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Haugesund 1.32 xG and Molde 1.92 xG, a combined 3.24. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Haugesund fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Molde outscored their 1.92 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haugesund attack 0.89 / defence 1.11 against Molde attack 1.09 / defence 1.17, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Haugesund 26% | Draw 22% | Molde 52%, with Molde to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haugesund 50%, Molde 83%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Haugesund's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Molde's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 83% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Molde arrived the stronger side — 2.67 PPG against 1.33. Form held, and they took the win. Haugesund (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Molde (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.